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Canada-US Flight Demand Collapsing - check your flights

Not to beat a dead horse but as many here have noted, relations between the USA and our dear neighbor to the north have suffered greatly recently, with one consequence being a "softening" in demand for travel between the US and Canada. Some airlines running US-Canada/Canada-US flights have already begun reducing flight capacity to try and keep up with the evolving demand. There are some new numbers out today from an industry group that suggest demand for such flights are absolutely cratering, with flight bookings in the coming months dropping 70-75 percent.

OAG: Canada - US Aviation: Airlines Respond to Weakening Demand

The gist:

Future flight bookings between Canada and the US have collapsed.

We've compared the total bookings held at this point last year with
those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season. The decline
is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to
the end of September.

That is a collapse that airlines are almost certainly going to respond to with aggressive adjustments. Any flights between the US and Canada (going either way) are at risk of cancellation and/or significant schedule shifts. (And yes, potentially deep discounts...if the flights are still on.) If you have any such flights, you would be wise to be monitoring their status in the coming weeks as airlines shift their plans (and their planes) to other places/times. Even if you have no travel planned to/from Canada - you're just going to Europe - it may impact you.

For example, if you have a trip to Europe planned for this summer, and you have a connection at a Canadian airport, watch out.

I've got a trip to Scotland coming up in July, and our flight home (to Seattle) includes a connection in YVR (Vancouver). The last leg of the trip home is just a short, under-an-hour hop from Vancouver to Seattle on an Air Canada turboprop. Air Canada flies this run (SEA-YVR) several times a day (at least they do now...), and I'm guessing that if demand for cross-border travel continues to collapse, this flight (like many others) is at risk. I recall during COVID, this flight was canceled completely, it just stopped.

I'll keep an eye on it (no changes I've seen yet) but in my case there's an extra risk: we are coming home on an award flight (booked with Air Canada frequent flyer miles). Our route home (all on a single booking) starts in Bergen, Norway, and goes through Frankfurt (on Lufthansa), then a nonstop from Frankfurt all the way to Vancouver (on Air Canada), then the last short hop to Seattle on Air Canada.

If the last leg from Vancouver to Seattle is canceled, Air Canada would put us on the next available flight (the next available flight might not be until the President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez administration, and I'm not sure I'm going to live that long...). But if the SEA-YVR route is dropped entirely...then things might just get really complicated/messy, ie a re-routing through Toronto or someplace else back east. Hopefully Air Canada doesn't just give up on me and leave us stranded in Norway.

Mine is an edge case, not applicable to most here, and something I'll be watching. But if you have (or are contemplating) any travel between the USA and Europe which involves a connection in Canada (lots of flights do) then you should also be keeping an eye on your booking to make sure it doesn't go sideways. Flight options between the western US and Europe (which often connect in Toronto) may become more complicated or more limited as the US/Canada flights dwindle. So if you are planning flights between the US and Europe, just be aware that any routing with a connection in Canada has a higher risk of a flight schedule/routing change (because the US-Canada leg may be canceled or switched to a smaller aircraft). Good luck.

Posted by
427 posts

I'm heading to Montreal next month. Great prices.

Sad to know the reason why though.

Happy travels.

Posted by
6957 posts

Lets hope your flight is still going when it's time for you to head for the airport (assuming you're planning to fly - from Cleveland, driving seems like a good option).

That was the point of my post: The flights we have been expecting to use are at risk of cancellation. No matter how deeply discounted tickets might be, at some point it just costs airlines too much to fly mostly-empty planes around and they will stop doing it. Hopefully your flights will be OK (but I'd be checking on them regularly). If driving...flight cancellations are not a worry.

Posted by
3001 posts

Thanks for this. I almost booked a flight returning from Europe through Montreal. I have different routing thank goodness but not because the ramifications of the current relationship between US and Canada played into my decision making. It frankly did not occur to me.

Posted by
427 posts

9 to 10 hour drive for me. But good point.

And thanks for the heads up.

Happy travels.

Posted by
2560 posts

I booked flights to Quebec and also to Italy in the last month.
This week the flights to Italy soared upward about 40%.
The flights to Canada remain at the same price as what I paid two weeks ago. That price reflected a cut of about 60% of its February price.

Posted by
4896 posts

One other thing to consider is your seat assignment. WestJet for one is taking its 787's from some popular US routes and moving to Europe and Asian destinations to keep up with demand. In is place they are using 737's which have a smaller capacity and obviously different seating arrangements.

Posted by
1643 posts

I am travelling roundtrip to Montreal from Cleveland via Detroit end of April to Mid May. I used miles for a first class ticket. One of my flights was in fact cancelled, however I was able to get a flight that was originally more miles as a replacement. For my same tickets/seats today, the miles are up 70%.

I checked the seat map, for whatever that is worth...there are more people shown on the flights from Detroit to Montreal and back then there are on the Det to/from Cleveland flights. I hope nothing drastic happens in the next five weeks.

Posted by
67 posts

Thanks for the heads up David. We too are booked on a RS Best of Scotland in 13 days tour in July. We however have a direct to LHR and will be spending 4 days in London before taking the train to Glasgow to join the tour. You on the same tour? Fortunately we don't have to stop over in Canada for either leg of this trip.

Posted by
6810 posts

Was just in Hawaii where the tourism talk is about Canadians canceling trips and a drop in future bookings.

The airlines have been expressing concern about lower bookings/profits related to drops and potential drops in Canadian travel. I've been shopping a fall flight to London. I'm seeing much higher fares than in the past. I suggest airlines look at their pricing.

Northern Minnesota resorts are concerned about a drop in their Canadian bookings.

Posted by
6957 posts

We too are booked on a RS Best of Scotland in 13 days tour in July. We however have a direct to LHR and will be spending 4 days in London before taking the train to Glasgow to join the tour. You on the same tour?

thommi01:

No, we are not going on a RS Best of Scotland tour; we are going (independently) to Shetland for about 10 days (Shetland is in Scotland...though just barely).

While a nonstop all the way to/from the UK would be ideal, I wasn't willing to pay for a non-stop. I booked using miles & points, Seattle to London (with one connection in Dallas) on American in business class, a long layover at LHR then a separate ticket from LHR to Shetland (one stop in Aberdeen) on British Airways/Loganair. It's our return I'm now watching. We leave Shetland and fly to Bergen, Norway for a "bonus city". After a couple nights there, then we fly home on an Air Canada ticket, Bergen-Frankfurt, Vancouver, Seattle. It seemed like a clever and sneaky routing at the time (in business class, and cheap). We will see how it works out in practice. Hoping that our stop in Vancouver won't derail things. (So far, no disruptions to any of our flights...I just checked).

Posted by
950 posts

Regardless of where you’re going or when you’re going, check your flights often. I fly Delta because I live in Atlanta. Delta does schedule changes every Saturday so every Sunday or Monday. I check every flight I’ve got

If you see a change you do not like start addressing it immediately. Do not wait on the outside chance that the airline will put your flight back or call you and give you options because people like me are being more proactive and are going to get the better options and you could be stuck with whatever your airline wants to put you on

you need to be proactive

Posted by
21821 posts

flight demand to Europe is down as well, so check those flights too