If your business class flight is on a US carrier, it’s probably going to be full. Will it be full with people that paid what the airline wanted? That’s a different issue.
But they’re a couple of things that happen on a lot of these airlines. Lots of them will offer frequent fliers , etc. a chance to upgrade. Or have upgrade certificates that don’t get applied to the last minute because the airline wants to make money. I’m flying Atlanta to Anchorage later this week. It’s an international plane and as a result, my upgrade certificate has not yet cleared. It will clear 24 hours in advance I think because there’s still a lot of empty seats, but Delta has hope that they’re going to sell that ticket.
And then the airline employees will get upgraded. One of the benefits of flying for some US carriers is when you are flying non-rev you can, if there are seats available, get that business class seat. Actually, if you want to watch some frequent flyers who don’t have upgrade options act like toddlers wait until they see that the flight attendant who is flying to Europe on vacation got an upgrade and they have to sit in the seat they paid for.
I do think business travel is soft right now. Delta recently sent me probably the best deal I’ve seen in a long time for mileage tickets in business class to Europe. I actually have one booked. I just haven’t decided if I dare take the trip, but I’m tempted.
For coach I do think a lot of people are buying the basic economy seats. They’re saving a couple hundred dollars and they’re just getting their seat at the gate.