Are Air Fares Falling?

Skyscanner may show an aggregate but the devil is in the details. My question would be, what are the specifics? What airline? What class of service? When is the flight scheduled, what market, and what connecting airport?

I tend to follow United's routes and prices for flights originating at IAD & RIC. Some routes and fares just dipped, but I wouldn't describe them as falling.

I am no expert on the subject but I remember when some months back the complaint was how much fares had gone up. Mostly by the folks that believe in (and have the luxury of) buying 300 days in advance.

I suggested that there was no way to know so early because I suspected that the airlines had perfected dynamic pricing. They would start high if anticipating a good season then the prices would drop until they reached the price that filled the planes. We would have to wait and see if they came down because of low demand. Maybe thats happening, but I havent followed it enough to have an opinion.

From the few flights I have checked prices on, its my perception (might be wrong) that the basic fares are being priced better than previous years and the more inclusive fares are getting more expensive ... the gulf is getting wider. Fine for me I fly closer to basic than to premium. But the good rates you see might have something to do whith that. Add a checked bag and a $250 rebooking option and see what the $700 ticket costs. Heck on some airlines, you will have to pay for the carryon. So add that too.

That would be lovely! With possible exceptions,I have generally found "I get what I pay for." Stops, weird times, restrictions and add ons have often been part of low fares. The last good fare I got was by monitoring, as you're doing, and then swooping when a $100 dip came along. Best of luck to you!

The last good fare I got was by monitoring, as you're doing, and then
swooping when a $100 dip came along. Best of luck to you!

I think thats the best advice.

But I am a little concerned. If fares are going down that means demand is going down and that means a less than good tourist season. I guess it could also mean that all of the travel shoulder seaon talk has changed the market and the peaks will get spread across more months. That means the shoulder people will be paying more for tickets.

But my big fear is the current world situation has keeping people home. Last year, Europe as a whole finally exceeded the pre-COVID tourist numbers. Yup, took that many years. But when you figure in the growth rate of tourism prior to COVID and apply that to last years numbers, tourism is still way below where it should be. Now if the market gets hit again by what ever is goin on, a lot of good people will get hurt.

Make sure that sky scanner is not leading you down some Primrose path with bizarre flight plans

When it sends you to kiwi.com for that great deal take your fingers off the keyboard and walk away. Unfortunately, Skyscanner allows a lot of trash agencies to be aggregated on their website. So when they post an airfare that is just unbelievable that does not mean you want it. After all, they can get you to Europe for $ 400. All you have to do is fly Atlanta to Newark and then an hour later fly from JFK to London Gatwick an hour after that fly from London city to your final destination - what can possibly go wrong with that? (Trust me you won’t make it )

If you can’t find the airfare on an airline website, proceed with extreme caution- ideally take your fingers off the keyboard

I guess that it can have more to do with the new unwelcome culture of the USA? As seen live on TV I would say.

The already allowed immigrations were stopped - so these people cancelled flights.

And for a lot of European tourists the USA might be no longer an attractive destination because the administration and finally the country is seen as unreliable - in best case only currently. Also sentences like the following in official security advise for travelers might urge some people to other destinations: "Major American cities are facing a nationwide increase in violent crime. There continues to be an increased risk of politically motivated violence.".

The academic and business relations of some industries were wanted to go down by current administration, so a lower demand of business travelers might be a symptom for this. One small example is that the US cancelled an already started cooperation with University of Rostock.

Until Dec. 2024 the load factors for US and Europe looked very high. See thread and link to IATA report here:
https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/transportation/growing-passenger-load-factors-change-strategy-for-flight-boking

So what were other differences from January on that might change booking demand or behavior?

I guess that it can have more to do with the new unwelcome culture of the USA?

Where have you seen news stories or news reports that say tourists from Germany or other parts of Europe are unwelcome? Everything political I have read or seen has to do with extended stay visas or illegal immigration, not a family from Europe being told not to come to the USA to sight see for two or three weeks or spend the winters in Florida, which many Europeans do.

Injecting politics due to a comment about low airfares, especially incorrect political statements, will kill Kenko's post.

so fares are falling? Good to know. Time to book! Thanks.

P.S. Google: "A German tattoo artist came to the US for a 3-week trip. She’s now been in ICE detention for over a month"

The above story is widely reported and it is easy to conceive that it could have a deleterious impact on tourism.

Oh good grief, our tax dollars paying for her to be stuck in a privately-owned prison. This really is Kafka-worthy.

She was entering on the visa -waiver program. Perhaps, someone didn't like her tatoos, piercings, and hair color? Her friend said she may have said she was working because she was going to add to her friend's tatoo, but for free.

The IATA December numbers were "good" but not super, there is new IATA info on January that does look a bit better (to me a layman).

If I were to make an uneducated wild-A guess I would say the airlines priced the flights for the year hoping for more of what occurred in December and January would continue through 2025, I do not believe that airline fares, when adjusted for inflation, are equal to those pre-COVID (they were not in 2023, dont know about 2024). Getting back to the 2019 numbers (adjusted), plus some, i am pretty sure is their goal and maybe thats where they put the numbers. When people saw the pre-COVID cost of a ticket after adjustment for inflation they screamed. But only because they can’t comprehend that they are paying no more than they did pre-COVID.

Then the ticket classes today are not the same as pre-COVID. So maybe the average cost of all tickets on a plane is about the same but the category of ticket you want is more expensive because other categories are less expensive. See, its a mess.

Then the world started unraveling and maybe the airlines got concerned that they overpriced and that brought things down a bit. Then maybe certain executives are concerned things will get worse before they get better so wanted to lock in some sales later in the year by discounting flights further.

As the year plays out those prices will fluctuate based on actuals and gut feelings of future impacts. Might go up, might go down. No way to know.

I suggest we wait and watch the rates. If they dip below last year, then its time to travel.

"A German tattoo artist came to the US for a 3-week trip. She’s now been in ICE detention for over a month"

She was entering on the visa -waiver program. Perhaps, someone didn't like her tatoos, piercings, and hair color?

Facts are important. The tattoo artist entered the US from Mexico where she was a tourist and not directly from Germany. She told immigration she was going to Los Angeles to do some tattoo work. She did not have the proper paperwork to enter to "do work".

"Customs and Border Protection (CBP) were asked why she was detained."

"A spokesperson from CBP told CNN affiliate KGTV that if a foreign national is denied admission to the US and is unable to book travel back to their country of origin “he or she will be turned over to the custody of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).”

"Jeff Joseph, president-elect of the American Immigration Lawyers Association, told CNN that Brösche’s case is “fairly unusual.” Brösche, who entered the US via the Visa Waiver Program agreement that the US has with Germany and 40 other countries, would usually have been deported immediately rather than sit in detention for over a month, Joseph said."

"By entering on the waiver program, a tourist waives their right to any kind of litigation, Joseph explained."

While this is an exceptional situation, she was not a typical tourist who landed in the US from Germany to be a tourist. The woman placed herself in a predicament and is unfortunately caught up in a web of bureaucracy. Very similar to what US citizens find themselves in when they might push the limits of the Schengen rules or other visa rules in European countries.

Again, let's not cast a blanket of unwelcomeness on a country who has had open borders for years in excess of any European country by far.

I fully respect the community guidelines. Therefore it was not my intention to start a political discussion or to disturb the original thread in any way. When searching for flight price and demand influencing factors it shall be allowed to raise questions from all travelers' perspectives (legal migration, tourism, business travel) and give relevant examples.

I like to add that (besides facts) emotions of travelers are always a relevant factor. Often travelers of all groups ask on forums if they are safe here or there as a woman or welcome as a person with a different faith or skin color than most inhabitants of a destination. It goes even so far that people ask what kind of clothes they shall wear at certain occasions to avoid being treated unfriendly. There are a lot of possible facts and emotions why people feel not welcome and cancel planned journeys.

I'd (mostly) agree.

Besides the "if" of bad times coming, the perception is enough to stall a lot of things.

I'd definitely worry about it if I wasn't so old. (And don't have living relatives to worry about.)

I'm not finding that they've gone up or down, but I'm finding the seat sales aren't as generous. For years I could count on a direct fare from my hometown of Calgary to most major cities in Europe to max out at about $1200 but if I was patient I could find it as low as $700, but now $1000 seems to be the new seat sale.

While it would be interesting to see just what these great flight deals actually consist of (bizarre connections on separate tickets in some cases??), I have a couple of thoughts. First, the low prices to Canada come as no surprise. The majority of Canadian travelers are refusing any non essential travel to the US - enough that the Canadian airlines are decreasing the number of flights per week. Demand has plummeted.

Flights from Europe? Pure WAG on my part, but recent tensions between NATO and EU countries and the US have likely not gone unoticed by the citizenry. And then, yes, the perceived safety issues of travel in the US.

Flights to Europe? From what I've been seeing in the last week from US news sources, consumer confidence and discretionary spending has taken a large drop, the markets are in decline, inflation is up, and thousands of jobs either have been lost or are at risk. So no surprise if people may be holding off on an expensive European summer vacation. JMHO.

Am I missing something? The question was asked if others are seeing a drop in airfare costs. And then suddenly politics gets injected into the conversation. But doesn't the question about airfare costs falling need to be answered first prior to coming up with hypotheses on why they are dropping when it hasn't even been established that they are dropping? But whatever, I think people are just a bit too eager to push their political viewpoints. Suggestion, can the actual question be answered and perhaps add the type of tickets you buy? And then if it is determined that they are dropping, have fun with your politics. My answer, no I'm not seeing a drop. I am a basic economy traveler who travels in the winter. And according to google flights, the pricing is typical for the few routes I've checked.

I’ve been tracking fares to Paris from YVR , with alerts , for a couple of months now.
Not one message to say said flights are going down in price, but a few with rising prices.
These are on airlines such as Air France, BA and Air Canada.

Yes, Canadians are not booking and are cancelling travel to the U.S.
I heard the numbers are down 40% from this time last year.
We love our friends there, but cannot spend our money there right now for obvious reasons. :(
We live where I can see a Border post just up the road…..it’s very quiet.

We’ll visit with you in Europe…..or come up and visit us if you’ve never been here!

I believe the question was “Are air fares falling?” I checked on my flight from San Francisco to Glasgow in late September which I do periodically. The answer is no. It tends to vary within a few dollars but no significant change of late.

Kenko, you are apparently correct.

Escape The U.S.: Here’s Where Airfares Are Falling In 2025 - Asia. Europe. South America. Oceania. Long-haul flights to far-flung destinations promise airfare bargains as we kick off the new year, while prices for domestic flights are higher than last year. https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2025/01/10/airfares-falling-2025-hopper-cheap-destinations/

And there are a dozen other similar articles but all that i checked seemed to be quoting the same data source.

But I asked ChatGPD or what ever its called and it said prices were up. Interesting.

I booked a flight (IAD to LHR / DUB to IAD) on United on Feb 22 for travel in May.

On Tuesday, the price dropped $190. I rebooked and got a United credit for the difference.

When I originally booked, I thought the prices were a bit higher than I had seen for May in the past. I will keep monitoring prices on my flight and take advantage of any price reductions. This is the first time I have been able to take advantage of a price reduction; the past couple of years, I have only seen price increases after purchase.

Well Carol im sure you know best about your father's anecdotal opinion. But a very superficial look at news articles by all of the major Canadian news outlets as well as the Financial Post since Jan 6 will disagree that your statement applies across most of the major snowbird locations. While the current political stupidity may not be the sole reason, a sharp uptick in Canadians putting their winter residences up for sale, compared to a year ago, is a fact. (Up here we like to deal in real facts, not opinions or what some like to call "alternate facts".)

But I digress from the OPs original question, and for that I will say I'm sorry.

I have removed my post because apparently since it appears to have upset, at least one post other poster, and that was not my intention

I was not trying to say that Canadians are not traveling in the United States. I was just trying to say that we do have some situations where some Canadians appear to still be traveling. I’m sorry that that was an inappropriate statement.

I doubt the South Texas Canadian snow birds care much either. Besides, happened in the middle of the season so they have little choice but wait till spring.

It was the German woman’s friend who said she may have said she planned to work because she was adding to her friend’s tattoo, but it wasn’t for money. No one knows what the woman told Border patrol.
Her mother purchased a ticket back to Germany for her but was told it couldn’t be used because it had to be approved before the purchase. Meanwhile, we’re paying her time in a foreign-profit prison.
Yes, this is travel related.

It was the German woman’s friend who said she may have said she
planned to work because she was adding to her friend’s tattoo, but it
wasn’t for money. No one knows what the woman told Border patrol.

I agree, no one knows. It might all make sense. Or not.

In November we purchased Polaris class tickets nonstop Newark to Dublin (round trip) for this coming May. I periodically check prices and until last week they had remained pretty steady. Then last Saturday I was shocked to see the same seats at $1100 less….on our flights and on the same flights on multiple nights. It was especially surprising because a lot of Polaris seats were taken, which usually causes the price to go up, not down.

For a number of reasons we like to purchase fully refundable fares. This has helped once when we suddenly had to cancel a trip, and last year it gave us the flexibility to cancel and rebook seats when the price went down. In the past, the extra cost for fully refundable fares stayed the same. But when I changed the filter and looked at fully refundable fares, the price was much higher than what I’d originally paid (non refundable fares were$1100 less; fully refundable fares were $250 more than what we’d paid in November).

In this instance I’m wondering whether the airline lowered regular fares but raised the price for fully refundable fares as a reflection of all the uncertainty surrounding us right now.