Are Air Fares Falling?

Skyscanner may show an aggregate but the devil is in the details. My question would be, what are the specifics? What airline? What class of service? When is the flight scheduled, what market, and what connecting airport?

I tend to follow United's routes and prices for flights originating at IAD & RIC. Some routes and fares just dipped, but I wouldn't describe them as falling.

I am no expert on the subject but I remember when some months back the complaint was how much fares had gone up. Mostly by the folks that believe in (and have the luxury of) buying 300 days in advance.

I suggested that there was no way to know so early because I suspected that the airlines had perfected dynamic pricing. They would start high if anticipating a good season then the prices would drop until they reached the price that filled the planes. We would have to wait and see if they came down because of low demand. Maybe thats happening, but I havent followed it enough to have an opinion.

From the few flights I have checked prices on, its my perception (might be wrong) that the basic fares are being priced better than previous years and the more inclusive fares are getting more expensive ... the gulf is getting wider. Fine for me I fly closer to basic than to premium. But the good rates you see might have something to do whith that. Add a checked bag and a $250 rebooking option and see what the $700 ticket costs. Heck on some airlines, you will have to pay for the carryon. So add that too.

That would be lovely! With possible exceptions,I have generally found "I get what I pay for." Stops, weird times, restrictions and add ons have often been part of low fares. The last good fare I got was by monitoring, as you're doing, and then swooping when a $100 dip came along. Best of luck to you!

The last good fare I got was by monitoring, as you're doing, and then
swooping when a $100 dip came along. Best of luck to you!

I think thats the best advice.

But I am a little concerned. If fares are going down that means demand is going down and that means a less than good tourist season. I guess it could also mean that all of the travel shoulder seaon talk has changed the market and the peaks will get spread across more months. That means the shoulder people will be paying more for tickets.

But my big fear is the current world situation has keeping people home. Last year, Europe as a whole finally exceeded the pre-COVID tourist numbers. Yup, took that many years. But when you figure in the growth rate of tourism prior to COVID and apply that to last years numbers, tourism is still way below where it should be. Now if the market gets hit again by what ever is goin on, a lot of good people will get hurt.

Make sure that sky scanner is not leading you down some Primrose path with bizarre flight plans

When it sends you to kiwi.com for that great deal take your fingers off the keyboard and walk away. Unfortunately, Skyscanner allows a lot of trash agencies to be aggregated on their website. So when they post an airfare that is just unbelievable that does not mean you want it. After all, they can get you to Europe for $ 400. All you have to do is fly Atlanta to Newark and then an hour later fly from JFK to London Gatwick an hour after that fly from London city to your final destination - what can possibly go wrong with that? (Trust me you won’t make it )

If you can’t find the airfare on an airline website, proceed with extreme caution- ideally take your fingers off the keyboard

I guess that it can have more to do with the new unwelcome culture of the USA? As seen live on TV I would say.

The already allowed immigrations were stopped - so these people cancelled flights.

And for a lot of European tourists the USA might be no longer an attractive destination because the administration and finally the country is seen as unreliable - in best case only currently. Also sentences like the following in official security advise for travelers might urge some people to other destinations: "Major American cities are facing a nationwide increase in violent crime. There continues to be an increased risk of politically motivated violence.".

The academic and business relations of some industries were wanted to go down by current administration, so a lower demand of business travelers might be a symptom for this. One small example is that the US cancelled an already started cooperation with University of Rostock.

Until Dec. 2024 the load factors for US and Europe looked very high. See thread and link to IATA report here:
https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/transportation/growing-passenger-load-factors-change-strategy-for-flight-boking

So what were other differences from January on that might change booking demand or behavior?

I guess that it can have more to do with the new unwelcome culture of the USA?

Where have you seen news stories or news reports that say tourists from Germany or other parts of Europe are unwelcome? Everything political I have read or seen has to do with extended stay visas or illegal immigration, not a family from Europe being told not to come to the USA to sight see for two or three weeks or spend the winters in Florida, which many Europeans do.

Injecting politics due to a comment about low airfares, especially incorrect political statements, will kill Kenko's post.

so fares are falling? Good to know. Time to book! Thanks.

The IATA December numbers were "good" but not super, there is new IATA info on January that does look a bit better (to me a layman).

If I were to make an uneducated wild-A guess I would say the airlines priced the flights for the year hoping for more of what occurred in December and January would continue through 2025, I do not believe that airline fares, when adjusted for inflation, are equal to those pre-COVID (they were not in 2023, dont know about 2024). Getting back to the 2019 numbers (adjusted), plus some, i am pretty sure is their goal and maybe thats where they put the numbers. When people saw the pre-COVID cost of a ticket after adjustment for inflation they screamed. But only because they can’t comprehend that they are paying no more than they did pre-COVID.

Then the ticket classes today are not the same as pre-COVID. So maybe the average cost of all tickets on a plane is about the same but the category of ticket you want is more expensive because other categories are less expensive. See, its a mess.

Then the world started unraveling and maybe the airlines got concerned that they overpriced and that brought things down a bit. Then maybe certain executives are concerned things will get worse before they get better so wanted to lock in some sales later in the year by discounting flights further.

As the year plays out those prices will fluctuate based on actuals and gut feelings of future impacts. Might go up, might go down. No way to know.

I suggest we wait and watch the rates. If they dip below last year, then its time to travel.

I fully respect the community guidelines. Therefore it was not my intention to start a political discussion or to disturb the original thread in any way. When searching for flight price and demand influencing factors it shall be allowed to raise questions from all travelers' perspectives (legal migration, tourism, business travel) and give relevant examples.

I like to add that (besides facts) emotions of travelers are always a relevant factor. Often travelers of all groups ask on forums if they are safe here or there as a woman or welcome as a person with a different faith or skin color than most inhabitants of a destination. It goes even so far that people ask what kind of clothes they shall wear at certain occasions to avoid being treated unfriendly. There are a lot of possible facts and emotions why people feel not welcome and cancel planned journeys.

I'd (mostly) agree.

Besides the "if" of bad times coming, the perception is enough to stall a lot of things.

I'd definitely worry about it if I wasn't so old. (And don't have living relatives to worry about.)

I'm not finding that they've gone up or down, but I'm finding the seat sales aren't as generous. For years I could count on a direct fare from my hometown of Calgary to most major cities in Europe to max out at about $1200 but if I was patient I could find it as low as $700, but now $1000 seems to be the new seat sale.

While it would be interesting to see just what these great flight deals actually consist of (bizarre connections on separate tickets in some cases??), I have a couple of thoughts. First, the low prices to Canada come as no surprise. The majority of Canadian travelers are refusing any non essential travel to the US - enough that the Canadian airlines are decreasing the number of flights per week. Demand has plummeted.

Flights from Europe? Pure WAG on my part, but recent tensions between NATO and EU countries and the US have likely not gone unoticed by the citizenry. And then, yes, the perceived safety issues of travel in the US.

Flights to Europe? From what I've been seeing in the last week from US news sources, consumer confidence and discretionary spending has taken a large drop, the markets are in decline, inflation is up, and thousands of jobs either have been lost or are at risk. So no surprise if people may be holding off on an expensive European summer vacation. JMHO.

I’ve been tracking fares to Paris from YVR , with alerts , for a couple of months now.
Not one message to say said flights are going down in price, but a few with rising prices.
These are on airlines such as Air France, BA and Air Canada.

Yes, Canadians are not booking and are cancelling travel to the U.S.
I heard the numbers are down 40% from this time last year.
We love our friends there, but cannot spend our money there right now for obvious reasons. :(
We live where I can see a Border post just up the road…..it’s very quiet.

We’ll visit with you in Europe…..or come up and visit us if you’ve never been here!

I believe the question was “Are air fares falling?” I checked on my flight from San Francisco to Glasgow in late September which I do periodically. The answer is no. It tends to vary within a few dollars but no significant change of late.

Kenko, you are apparently correct.

Escape The U.S.: Here’s Where Airfares Are Falling In 2025 - Asia. Europe. South America. Oceania. Long-haul flights to far-flung destinations promise airfare bargains as we kick off the new year, while prices for domestic flights are higher than last year. https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2025/01/10/airfares-falling-2025-hopper-cheap-destinations/

And there are a dozen other similar articles but all that i checked seemed to be quoting the same data source.

But I asked ChatGPD or what ever its called and it said prices were up. Interesting.

I booked a flight (IAD to LHR / DUB to IAD) on United on Feb 22 for travel in May.

On Tuesday, the price dropped $190. I rebooked and got a United credit for the difference.

When I originally booked, I thought the prices were a bit higher than I had seen for May in the past. I will keep monitoring prices on my flight and take advantage of any price reductions. This is the first time I have been able to take advantage of a price reduction; the past couple of years, I have only seen price increases after purchase.

In November we purchased Polaris class tickets nonstop Newark to Dublin (round trip) for this coming May. I periodically check prices and until last week they had remained pretty steady. Then last Saturday I was shocked to see the same seats at $1100 less….on our flights and on the same flights on multiple nights. It was especially surprising because a lot of Polaris seats were taken, which usually causes the price to go up, not down.

For a number of reasons we like to purchase fully refundable fares. This has helped once when we suddenly had to cancel a trip, and last year it gave us the flexibility to cancel and rebook seats when the price went down. In the past, the extra cost for fully refundable fares stayed the same. But when I changed the filter and looked at fully refundable fares, the price was much higher than what I’d originally paid (non refundable fares were$1100 less; fully refundable fares were $250 more than what we’d paid in November).

In this instance I’m wondering whether the airline lowered regular fares but raised the price for fully refundable fares as a reflection of all the uncertainty surrounding us right now.

A lot goes into travel decisions. High on the list is cost. Right now travel to Europe from the US is roughly 6% higher than just a few weeks or a month ago. The exchange rate has been volatile. I suspect that is the case for our many friends in Canada who have cut back on travel to the US.

Canadians in my area that are selling condos/homes have never expressed politics as a reason. They have expressed the cost of maintaining a winter condo/home is just becoming extremely expensive over the past several years due to inflation and the exchange rate continuing to climb as well. I can understand those reasons.

I think very few people really don't travel because of politics. Why would you? The lack of travel to a location only hurts the people who need your business the most and they are a powerless lobby to change the national politics in any country.

I may disagree with the politics of France and its leadership, but that wouldn't stop me from enjoying all the wonderful sites and places France has to offer.

Interesting discussion. It seems that economic uncertainty globally is affecting the airlines’ ability to sell their seats on international flights, at least in the larger markets such as Los Angeles , New York. and Washington D.C.

Next month is April which is the month most Americans will decide where they will be going for their summer vacations. It would seem the airlines are seeing depressed demand for international travel and are trying to sell seats.

Domestically, air fares are reportedly up, so the demand is holding up in that market.
Maybe, this year with all the uncertainty , people are deciding to stay closer to home.

Cheers!

Most amazing thing i learned is that most Americans plan their Summer European vacations during the month of April.

For those Americans who travel this summer, most will make a final decision on where they go during the month of April. A least that is what has happened in the past. They may decide to go to Italy, Illinois or Indonesia—but most will nail it down next month.
With all these airfare sales, I’m going to Canada to visit friends, and then it’s back to Europe.
Slainte Mhath!

Most Americans make their summer bass fishing plans at Lake Wobegone in April. But, while I cant prove it and I hate arguing with AI, i suspect most going to Europe purchased their tickets long before April. So the impact of sales up or down might have been there before the bulk of the current world situation hit home.

Just received a notification that a Premium Economy fare on Air France YVR to CDG in September has gone up to $6,221 return.
!!!!
So there is no evidence that flights from Canada are going down.
Maybe I’ll stay home this year as I cannot justify spending that much!

Still haven't bought tickets (to Switzerland) for July trip but prices are 25% lower than they were selling for 60 days ago according to google flights. Surprised by the drop. (We're delayed until we decide on return date.)

Anecdotally, which is all this thread is ... I booked our flights in January for a trip in November, ATL-FCO. I'm flying on Delta, mixed class (Delta One going over and main cabin coming back - I get automatically bumped to Comfort+ due to my status). It's $625 per ticket more now than it was just six weeks ago, over 20% jump. Maybe they'll drop between now and then. I'll keep checking but I'm not holding my breath. The joys of being a hub captive.

Maybe we got a less than great tourist season coming. I have to spend 2 nights in Vienna in June. I checked my preference hotel cost in early January and it was silly expensive. So I did nothing. Checked again tonight and it's down 15%. Still silly expensive though.

If the general trend is the decreasing airfares to Europe, all the better.

From SFO if the fare during peak season in the summer is below $1500 Basic Economy non-stop r/t , I count that as lucking out going back to France and Germany, absolutely no concerns about political matters here or there affecting my traveling over there this summer, would not deter me at all.

Bottom line: The lower the fare, obviously, all the better.

I’ve seen a fair amount of price volatility for a May trip. I managed to snare a decent but not great fare during one of the dips. I continue to monitor in case it falls further.

I just happened to see a segment on CNBC with Delta’s CEO. They lowered Q1 guidance due to softening demand. Demand is still strong just not as strong as they initially thought.

There’s a snippet of the interview in the link.

https://apple.news/AWV4DXdRjTaq6sjP_1PRk-A

NY Times today "Delta Says Economic Worries Are Hurting Travel Demand." So yes, quite likely prices are down on some routes and it has little to do with international relations but more to do with the economy.

Yes, but if you actually read what Delta said what they have said is that it’s domestic that’s down international demand is still meeting their expectations. So that would not explain price decreases in my humble opinion.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/10/delta-air-lines-cuts-forecast-softer-demand.html

“Delta said in a filing that demand for premium travel, international travel and loyalty revenue growth is still in line with its expectations.”

i just checked fares for my Fall trip to the US. If someone wanted to fly Basic economy its pretty amazing how cheap you can fly. I love that. Opens up more world to more people.

Unfortunately on the next trip I will need to carry a bag so ....... BUD to Washington DC (any airport) and then IAH to BUD two weeks later. Bristish Air starts at $513.00 on a realistic flight. So I checked British Air first. Their site is so frustrating that when I ened up looking at $1000 for the $513 ticket I didnt even try and figure out why. Probably my mistake or the few upgrades came at big dollars, but not worth the effort on their site to go back and fine tune to a good price. So I went to KLM that started at $586. The upgrade so I could check a bag brought it to $700. Seats are free at check-in or I can buy them for $114.

This is still a few hundred cheaper than the prices I saw in January, so things are down. I cant buy now, waiting on a Visa first. I will see where they are in a couple of months.

Regardless of factors affecting air fares, downwards, ie economics, mutual tariff escalation, etc, etc, getting a fare of one thousand $ r/t or so Basic Economy for a peak summer flight to Schengen from SFO is ideal, absolutely fantastic.

It is still a pipe dream at that price, who knows.

Wednesday CPI showed decline in airline prices.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm
Scroll down to "Transportation Services/Public Transportation/Airline fares"

Could have something to do with people who trave back and forth to Europe having some business investment (on going or retirement) in which case this might be part of the explination: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiqwdOm-oeMAxXmU1UIHU0GMc0Q3ecFegQIOBAX&window=1M

I had an interesting discussion with my money nerd today. He reminded me that he has been telling me about his for the last year .... very long explination. If he is correct then business class tickets have been flat for a long time (only the money nerd people who can afford those tickets would know what was coming). Poo folk we just wake up and find it in the morning.

Found an article about travel numbers Canada - USA which might also explains a part of dropping flight prices on such connections.
Spring break shakeup? Canadians taking fewer trips to the U.S., StatsCan says
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-us-border-travel-1.7479387

The article hasnt got a lot to do with US/North American Airfares to Europe. The article wants to beat the US "bad" drum, fine, but the numbers that back up the story (links in the story) say that cross ocean travel is down for Canada (down over 16%) just like it is for the US which is the meaningful and important story (but would generate fewer clicks).

It is a number-based indication that people in relevant amount change their travel behavior against or around the USA based on actual influence. It would help the discussion if you would find better numbers or indicators instead of always blocking a contribution from others.

Yea, sure.

But, MarkK, I do thank you for the one interesting (for me) take away (from the links in the article, not the article itself). And that’s that the drop in transoceanic tickets isn’t confined to the US, as Canada is experiencing it too (-16%). This might be more of a worldwide phenomenon and not just a US centered or US caused event.

For early summer departure SFO to Paris CDG Basic Economy, the fare having checked today is all right but I wish it would fall a bit more. No destination flexibility here this time, it will have to be only CDG with getting the best price possible on a major carrier.

As to the reasons, they vary in my estimation, the political issues are among them, and to be sure, there will be Americans conceivably canceling their trips due to the undue concerns based on politics and perceived safety....not part of my concerns at all.

Doesn't really matter why airfares are less. Isn't that a good thing for travelers?

Airfares falling, may or may not be a good thing for travelers. If airfares fall to the point where some airlines find routes no longer profitable, those routes will be discontinued, which would lead to less competition and overall higher airfare. You want airfare to stay at least a sustainable rate

I just checked our Polaris class Newark/Dublin r/t tickets for May and the price per ticket is $307 less than when we purchased in December. United has refunded us the difference.

That extra $614 is probably going to come in handy with the exchange rate likely to become more and more unfavorable for the dollar!