another "when to book" airfare article

I'll bet they got that 176 days for Europe flights from NA from this Expedia study published 5 months ago:

https://viewfinder.expedia.com/img/STOR-23513_White_paper.pdf

Actually the study says 171 days but it's pretty much the same. And before that, prices are not much higher. But after---closer to the flight---prices start rising steeply.

So don't believe the pundits here who say wait until 2-3 months out for best price. I followed that "advice" once and paid dearly for it.

You might find some airfare bargains by waiting, but most likely they will be undesirable routes with long layovers, out-of-the way stopovers, or two stops on the way.

We are booked for our mid May trip already.. my daughters boyfriend who is going to join us for portion of the trip has already learned what waiting means.
Means his ticket price has gone up from a month ago. I had checked prices for him then.. sent him the link.. and then because he was waiting to see how school worked out ( whether he would be taking summer session) .. he waited to buy ticket.
Just looked up ticket again.. same airline, same route.. about 30 days later.. price up 200 dollars.

Unless one is travelling off season.. I don't think one should ever count on a price dip or seat sale .. prices generally seem to remain steady or go up . As I said.. there are exceptions.. but I find over the years I do save money by booking airfares and hotels well in advance , ( well hotels don't usually vary their prices that much .. except they only have so many rooms in smaller hotels I like so they do sell out sooner then the big corporate hotels) .
I have 5 inter europeon flights booked four our trip ( 28 days) also.. and on those cheapo airlines prices always go up and up as seats sell !

You can take all of those kinds of articles and file them in the trash can. They're fairly worthless. The best time to buy airfare is when it's lower than normal and no one can "predict" when that will be. Study airfares for the destinations you want so that you'll know when a "great" airfare appears.

It's a very long, convoluted article that keeps circling back on itself. Like a snake eating its tail.

Another conclusion: "fares bounce around so much, each day may be different. When you see a good price, grab it."

And my advice is, after you've made a reasonable effort to find a good fare, book it and forget about it. Worrying and stressing won't help; you have to get all zen about it and just accept that it is what it is. You can try and save money during your trip on meals and sometimes on lodging, and on bigger transportation expenses like train tickets, but airfare is subject only to the laws of Zeus and Apollo.

Generally this is what i find.

The further away you are from your departure date the more expensive airfares are, and,

the closer you are to your departure date the more expensive are airfares, the trick is,

to find that bargain in between. I forgot to add the smiley :)

jkc hasn't been going to the same places as me. For trans-Atlantic flights I have found the travel season to have more influence on prices than when the tickets are purchased. Generally, the cross-the-pond prices rise in May, peaking in June-to-August, and declining to some extent in mid-September. Last winter I followed my usual tactic of beginning to shop for a June fare in late December, expecting some discounts until mid-February. Nope. Prices for June rose during January and showed no discounts for February or March purchases either. Now, a specific route may, on one lucky day or week, offer a bargain. And there's no telling what a decline in travel to France might do. But I believe it's a gamble so you might as well role the dice sooner, and have a better seat selection, than try to wait it out. And as a previous poster suggested, once the deed is done, stop shopping and stop worrying. Do not keep checking to see what you missed; why aggravate yourself?

I agree that mostly prices are a question of luck. One of the best articles I read, (wish I had saved it) was about the extremely complex formulas airlines use to price their tickets. It included time from date of departure, number of unsold seats, how many seats were they from making a profit, predictions based on the past of filling up, sales from other airlines, etc. The upshot was that the individual cannot predict prices.

There are a lot of variables to finding the least expensive airfares. It's all supply and demand, and the airline analysts are very good at controlling the number of seats--and keeping prices steep.

The winter airfares usually change the last few days of March, and that's usually when we leave. The fares go up for April and May, but they really increase June 1st when all the schools let out. Flights will remain sky high until the last week of August when they start to come down.
For a end of March airfare, I'll be watching the airfares through December. If there's a drop in airfares, I'll buy then or look to buy after the Holidays when the rate analysts get back to work. There will often be one day sales around those times.
Another trick we use is where we fly from and where we fly to. Easiest way to save on airfares is by flying on budget airlines--like Norwegian Air Shuttle and Wow Air. For example, we're flying on Norwegian Air from Orlando-London-Gatwick to Rome the end of April. Then we fly from Venice to London Gatwick (on British Air) and home on Norwegian. Norwegian's total airfare is $700 and British Air's fare is about $100. The legacy carriers were charging $1400 each last time I checked for our itinerary.
Have a good flight search.

I booked for May this past October when someone on here posted a BA fare sale in Business.

Of course for that I did the "Clark Howard Method" Grab the fare and then figure out what you are doing. And if you are flexible his system works. He watches sales and plans his vacation around the airfare deal not the airfare around the vacaiton.

That was a great sale. Occasionally airlines getting into pricing wars or offer a sale, but there is no way to know that in advance. When you travel: month, season, day or the week and where: major hub or nearby city or secondary airport and who you book with will all make a difference. But how far out to book doesn't seem to do much for me.

Bought mine within the range. For 27 May 16, bought my Air France tickets from SFO to CDG on 30 Nov for $1,500 ea, two-seat row. In Oct the price was over $1,900 and on Friday 4 Dec the price went up $500 ea. As a matter of fact Air France raised all their flight prices from 4 Dec thru 31 May between $200 - $500.

Maybe it depends on which flight ticket seller is selling tickets. For example, I usually buy tickets from https://usairlines.us , but I haven't noticed any price changes during those days. In any case, I'll do check on Friday and Saturday as you wrote, maybe we'll be able to save $ buying cheaper tickets :)

I never understood why some people think they can pay less for a flight by waiting. Demand is higher than supply if you wait. That just increases the price on airfare. So why not book the flight ASAP when there is a good deal on one you're happy with? Then you spend less time worrying about and watching prices because the chore is done before they go up.

It also makes no sense that people think the time of day or day of the week has anything to do with how much you pay.. The #1 factor, no matter where you are going, is when you fly. It's guaranteed your airfare will be much higher for a June-August trip than a January-March trip no matter what time or day of the week you book it.