Airspace closures, flight bans, and the war in Ukraine

Yes, here's just one of the unexpected flights that would be impacted.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AIC126/history/20220225/1830Z/KORD/VIDP

Yep, that's a good example.

Issues with crossing Russian airspace will have their greatest impact for those in northern Europe flying to southeast Asia (popular holiday destinations). Flights from northern Europe to Japan/Korea, too (those often go almost entirely over Russia). Japan/Korea still remain restricted due to COVID, but like other Asian destinations, they are starting to open up, and they do get transit flights. Any flights from North America to the Middle East that go over the north pole -- lots of flights to the airline hubs in Dubai, Doha, etc. -- cross a lot of Russian airspace.

David, interesting thread. I had not seen that about UK banning Aeroflot.

Tom, that is very interesting. I usually think I'm pretty good with geography but it's flat map geography, lol, not flight route geography, lol. Thank you for that link.

Sure, but let's try and be accurate and factual.

Flying over 90% of Ukraine had been as safe as anywhere in the world. Russians shot down one flight from within the Ukraine. Not airliners (plural). The one flight that was referred to as having been hijacked was diverted. Although the circumstances of that, in their entirety, should have been held by the world as a criminal act.

When the war ends favorably for Ukraine, I would expect the commercial flights to return quickly to support the economy.

I can not think of a destination in Europe that will become less accessible by US tourists due to Russia being closed.

Russians hacking computer systems in the west could trigger NATO, so I suspect the Russians will be cautious on that count especially if lives could be lost.

As I said, the greatest impact here -- today, right now -- is going to be flights from northern Europe to Asia. That's today, in the first hours of this war. Anyone who says things are just fine and they're going to remain unchanged is naive or worse. And of course there are no shortage of trolls and apologists out doing Putin's work for him (nothing new there).

Ukraine appears to be fighting back hard and bravely digging in for a long, costly conflict. Analysts are expressing surprise that the Russian advances have not been as swift and successful as many expected, but the Russians will prevail. Putin has staked a lot on his plans for a quick, "clean" victory, and he may end up with something more akin to what happened to those who occupied Iraq and Afghanistan. We will see how that goes and what impacts it has for those hoping to fly over Ukrainian (and Russian) airspace. Nobody should be surprised if things continue to go downhill, it's still very early. I would not suggest any travelers panic and cancel flights (although I certainly wouldn't advise anyone to plan travel to Ukraine anytime soon, you would have to be delusional). But I would suggest anyone planing flights that go through or near the region pay attention to current events and be prepared to be flexible, as things change going forward.

Don't forget potential impacts of higher fuel costs.

FlightAware.com has maps of virtually every airport in the world, and you can see the airplanes in the sky, their speeds, altitudes, where the flight started and the destination airport.

I often watch for the airplanes coming into our airport, and that often includes the huge Russian Antonov 225 carrying who knows what into The Rocket City. Our local industries include rocket engines, missiles, defensive missile systems (THADD) Army Aviation (helicopters) and the ICBM program (headquartered here.) Who know what they trust Russia's airplane hauling, but it's cargo must be large and extremely expensive.

Earlier today, there were a few commercial jets flying east and west in Southern Belarus. But to the south, there were so many planes going to and from Europe to the Far East that it looked like a traffic jam on the map.

At present, it’s still possible to fly to/from Britain, from/to Russia, but only by connecting somewhere in between.

On the flip side, it appears just about every well-to-do-Russian with plans for their usual ski vacation in Courchevel, France, has cancelled. Maybe they’re choosing not to go, or can’t find a way to be able to access their finances, or the no-go decision was made for them. The place’ll be pretty empty without them.

Delta has also dropped its partnership with aeroflot.

https://www.wkbn.com/news/national-world/delta-suspends-partnership-with-russian-airline-aeroflot/

Take a look, and help if you can. They have been assisting Ukraine in its war with Russia since 2014.

https://unitedhelpukraine.org

Done. In addition to a couple of other small groups I personally know housing orphans, who are preparing their resources to help their village neighbors.

David, in response to your flight thoughts, I checked my next month flight to Dubai via a connection in Doha and it appears to be flying - just not over Russian airspace. So airlines will figure that out.

The one flight that was referred to as having been hijacked was diverted. Although the circumstances of that, in their entirety, should have been held by the world as a criminal act.

Just so I'm clear...if a person in the aircraft tells the pilot there is a bomb on the plane and to land at this airport instead of that one, it's a hijacking. If the person giving the bomb threat does it over the radio, and sends up a fighter jet, it's a diversion.

David, I saw a list of all the countries that have banned Aeroflot and the US was not on it. Hopefully not a complete list.

Eric, heinous crime by any definition. Here are the details: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/belarusian-government-officials-charged-aircraft-piracy-diverting-ryanair-flight-4978-arrest

But of course, the world did nothing.

James, I agree with you. What struck me was that, in this case, whether it was a diversion or a hijacking was a distinction without a difference.

Individual nations that have now closed their airspace to Russian air traffic:

• Ireland
• UK
• Slovenia
• Czech Republic
• Poland
• Lithuania
• Latvia
• Estonia
• Finland
• Romania
• Bulgaria

Today the EU also proposed a ban on Russian air traffic (I assume EU bureaucracy requires a more lengthy process).

Again, this probably is not going to have a great impact on most people flying between North America and Europe (I assume that Russia will retaliate by closing their airspace to aircraft from these countries). And nope, the US has not yet banned Aeroflot, which seems odd (maybe because it could damage the real estate market in south Florida?).

Airspace exclusions keep expanding and some routes will definitely be impacted. An extreme example: Belavia (the national airline of Belarus) has a flight between Minsk and Istanbul that takes about two hours -- or at least it used to, flying a direct route. That flight now takes almost six hours, because they are diverting as far east as the Caspian Sea (that's further east than Tehran, Iran) -- that is a long detour. Look at the crazy route here. I doubt anyone here is planning to take that flight, but it shows how airspace closures can play havoc with flight plans.

From New York to Paris, it's not going to impact that. For flights crossing other parts of the globe (Northern Europe to Asia, in particular, or over-the-pole flights from North America to the Middle East), it's probably going to require stretching those flights.

Perhaps because of Canada's closure, Aeroflot's upcoming flights to LAX/JFK have been cancelled or, in the case of today's Moscow-New York flight, diverted back to Russia after almost making it to Greenland.

https://www.flightradar24.com/AFL124/2af5912d

Considering the State Dept is telling US citizens to consider leaving Russia, it's more than probable that more sanctions and restrictions(air?) are coming. That said, unless American's are actually going to Russia, most won't enter their airspace.

I often watch for the airplanes coming into our airport, and that
often includes the huge Russian Antonov 225 carrying who knows what
into The Rocket City.

*Ukrainian

Who know what they trust Russia's airplane hauling, but it's cargo
must be large and extremely expensive.

*Ukraine's

Well, that gigantic AN-225 -- the world's largest plane -- was destroyed yesterday in Russian attacks on Kiyv. It had been stuck on the ground at a Kiyv airport (Antonov's home base, where it was built) undergoing engine maintenance when the Russians struck, so they were unable to fly it away to safety.

There was only one, and it was quite the behemoth. It once carried the Soviet Space Shuttle, in more recent years it specialized in moving extremely large/heavy cargo around the world, sometimes delivering supplies to areas hit by natural disasters. The plane's loss is very sad. The Ukrainians vow the plane will be rebuilt -- at Russia's expense -- but that seems like a dream that probably won't be realized (estimated cost for that is over US3 billion, but nobody knows the aircraft's condition, and to "rebuild" a unique aircraft that was damaged in a battle may be unrealistic).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/an-225-world-s-largest-plane-reportedly-destroyed-in-ukraine/ar-AAUnS2g

James, agree. My original point was that I view both scenarios as hijacking, and found the use of the word "diversion" to be underplaying what occurred. Perhaps, looking back, you were being ironic (not a first for you, I know!) As you noted, to those on the plane, they don't care--a bomb threat is a bomb threat--but in my mind for a State to make such a threat under the color of authority is the greater of two evils.

According to articles in The Points Guy today, the US is closing its airspace to Russian operators. Also, United is ending its use of Russian airspace and suspending SFO-DEL and EWR-BOM for the time being. Apparently the latter two flights cannot operate without additional refueling or other technical stops.

The articles note that airlines pay to transit a countries' airspace, so this amounts to another form of cutting Russia off.