The best fare is on Continental thru Newark at $1ll5.00.I know no one has a crystal ball but for May 4-26 what do you think of this?Should we wait?thanks
I took that same route (starting in Detroit though) for approximately the same date range (2 wks vs 3 though). Detroit->Newark->Edinburgh out and Heathrow->Newark->Detroit in and paid about $780 round trip (that's total with taxes/fees). I got that price in late February when Continental dropped the Fuel Surcharge for a bit. It's kind of a coin-toss though as to when you'll get best rates - though in my watching it seemed that outside of any special offers the 2-3 month window offered the best pricing, but it largely depends on how fast the flights are booking, etc.
Farecompare and Bing Travel are good places to set up watches for rates on specific routes. I'd definitely check there and start watching.
Wait.
I predict $750/800s by late Feb, early March.
Then again, I have no crystal ball either!!!
I would have a lot more faith in the low fare predictors if they would put some money on the table. Telling Jack to wait when he has to assume all the risk is just talk. And citing a sale nowhere near your dates is equally worthless. There are so many factors determining that even prior history in the current economy is not a great predictor. Recent articles have reported that airlines have reduced capacity as much as 25% on some routes. The declining dollar is a two edge sword. Makes operating expenses in Europe higher and makes flying to the US cheaper.
You need to set a price that you view as reasonable for you. Not the cheapest price because you almost never get that. Also you are beginning to push into the busy season. The probability of a $800 fare in May is much, much lower than February or March. And if the economy turns some this spring, maybe travel will be up. I would bet Michael that you would not see a $750 fare but then I could be wrong also but I like my odds better.
Personally I would wait till mid January. If no major changes, I would buy what is available and move on. Remember the longer you wait the less seat choice that you have. For me saving a hundred dollar is not worth being stuck in a middle seat for eight hours.
Frank makes some excellent points. I would just add to it that you should watch the flight(s) you want to take to see how full the flights are. If the flight is nowhere near full, there is a greater chance that the price may come down. If the flight is close to full, it is very unlikely the price will come down, and you shouldn't wait long to book.
Thanks much to everyone.
"And if the economy turns some this spring, maybe travel will be up. I would bet Michael that you would not see a $750 fare but then I could be wrong also but I like my odds better."
OK Frank, I will post it when I see it. No later than 3/20 too.
I would like to point out that I said $750/800s, so I have some wiggle room.
All in fun of course!
It isn't interesting if you don't have a little money -- some risk -- riding on it. Lets think of something. I will have my lawyer call your lawyer -- send me the number.
OK, Frank, time to pay up! I hope the OP hasn't bought yet.
Available now, $817 including taxes. USAir. Could go lower, but I'd book it now.
ExpressTotal $817 Non-refundable (includes taxes and fees)
Depart: Milwaukee, WI London, United Kingdom (Heathrow) Date: Tuesday, 04 May 2010
Depart: Date: Flight status
Flight # Depart Arrive Travel time Meal Aircraft Cabin
4059 3:22 PM MKE 6:20 PM PHL 1h 58m None CRJ Coach (W)
Stop: Change plane
728 9:55 PM PHL 10:05 AM LHR 7h 10m Dinner A330-200 Coach (W)
•Flight # 728 : Arrives next day, Wednesday, May 05, 2010
Return: Edinburgh, United Kingdom Milwaukee, WI Date: Wednesday, 26 May 2010
Depart: Date: Flight status
Flight # Depart Arrive Travel time Meal Aircraft Cabin
5469 8:55 AM EDI 10:25 AM LHR 1h 30m Breakfast A320 Coach (W)
Stop: Change plane
729 12:35 PM LHR 3:55 PM PHL 8h 20m Lunch A330-200 Coach (W)
Stop: Change plane
3693 6:20 PM PHL 7:49 PM MKE 2h 29m None CRJ Coach (W)