We are housesitting in Switzerland for 2 weeks late July. If we wait for a sunny forecast in Berner Oberland will we be able to find lodging with only a day or two notice in Murren or Lauterbrunnen? Those places I have looked at so far charge if you cancel 30 days in advance
As long as it's not Aug. 1 (Swiss 4th of July) you should be ok. You may not find anything at your first choice hotel, but there's always something reasonable available.
Call or email your target hotel directly. Most hotels only farm out a portion of their rooms to booking.com and other such services. So, even if those sites say the hotel has no availability, you may still get a room there by direct contact.
"Call or email your target hotel directly."
I just want to emphasize this for Switzerland. Even looking at the hotel's own website (not booking dot com or such), rooms were not shown as available, but I was able to get the room I wanted by emailing the hotel directly.
If you're looking for last minute lodging, be flexible; call places in Lauterbrunnen, Mürren, Wengen, and Gimmelwald. All of these are fine for seeing the area, if your first choice village has no accommodation available. In a pinch, you could even stay in Interlaken; this should be your last choice, but it's better than not being able to see the Berner Oberland at all. Since there are large hotels in Interlaken, there could be a vacancy in one of these when the actual Berner Oberland villages are full.
Our one-time experience, staying four nights, was that every hotel that had shown full on line had rooms-available signs out when we were actually there. This was during July a few years ago.
Personally, I would avoid Lauterbrunnen and head a little further on, as you say, to Murren or Wengen. You can always park your luggage in the train station lockers and walk the streets to look for ZIMMER FREI signs, which offer a room in a house to stay. These are usually great deals, much less expensive than hotels, and generally offer a breakfast thrown in and the chance to meet and talk with folks. Try also another location, up the hill from Meiringen, Hotel Rosenlaui. Give them a call when you want to go and see if there is vacancy.