Checked luggage

I think there are websites where you can check stats for each airline. Anecdotally, they have overall gotten better, but really there is no way to predict. If having to wait on luggage would mess with your plans (like if you plan to leave Madrid upon arrival), I would not risk it. But when you've got to, you've got to, so all you can really do is hope for the best (and pack a toothbrush, undies, and of course necessities in a carryon).
I once had an airline bring my luggage to me on Gozo, Malta via helicopter--that pretty much ended checked bags for me on all but direct flights.

How much time is there between flights at each stop? Timing is a critical element impacting the successful transfer of luggage between flights/airlines.
We used to only check luggage for direct flights and then something wonderful occurred...........
We learned how to pack using only a carry on. It takes some discipline, change in "packing" attitude and recognition everything you need for a trip is available in Europe, but the adjustment is well worth the "sacrifice". Today we travel for up to two weeks using only carry on luggage. This is a liberating experience, particularly in reducing travel stress and being luggage "mules".
Think about it.

We'd all like a crystal ball that could predict when a bag would take a separate vacation. Mine is in for regular maintenance. I will say that we almost always check a bag each. And while we've occasionally had a bag arrive a day later, we've never actually had a bag lost. Some airlines seem to be better than others about reuniting you expeditiously.

Many airlines give you updates on your luggage’s location such as “arrived, being loaded” etc. AA has this feature and it is very comforting.

We’ve checked luggage straight through on Delta from SeaTac>Amsterdam>final destination. When checking luggage at SeaTac I always look at the tag before the agent sends it on it’s way. That said, no guarantees.

We always check bags and minimize carryons to items we need access to on the plane (we also carry extra underwear and socks in carry on in case our bags don't make it), but we have never had any lost or missing bag issues on international trips. And the only real worry is on the trip over there, being without bags when you arrive in Europe - if they lose them or whatever on the return, certainly an inconvenience, but no big deal.

I think that where people run into trouble is if the bags go missing on arrival in Europe - say they land in Paris, and immediately you go on walkabout around the country, the problem being getting reconnected with your bags. We don't tend to travel that way - we tend to stay in our arrival city for at least 3 or 4 days if not longer, and I think that can only make it easier for the bags to find their way back to you, especially if you are in a hotel where the desk / concierge can hold them for you.

I know that on this forum in particular, the RS mantra is to never check bags, but we don't roll that way. We always check bags...knock on wood...

Heck, we’re concerned about it arriving even if it’s a direct flight. To minimize any possible inconvenience in the event a suitcase gets lost, my wife and I place a couple days changes of clothes in the others suitcase as well as carrying a couple days worth in our carry-on bag. As a reminder, place any medications or items you might need in transit in your carry-on bag.

To minimize any possible inconvenience in the event a suitcase gets lost, my wife and I place a couple days changes of clothes in the others suitcase as well as carrying a couple days worth in our carry-on bag. As a reminder, place any medications or items you might need in transit in your carry-on bag.

We do the same, redundant packing in the 2 bags in case only one makes it.

Especially in the winter, if flying to northern Europe, in addition to a carry on bag, we are also carrying onboard any coats we need when we land. Our hands are pretty full on these winter flights; flying in warmer weather, if we can get by on just one checked bag for the two of us, we will opt for that. In winter, clothes are heavier, etc., and we check one bag per person.

The odds of your bags getting there are very, very high. What you need to do is be prepared if they do not, or if they arrive late. If checking multiple bags, do as others have suggested and split your clothes between the two bags. That way if one bag goes missing, each person still has extra clothes. ALSO, pack an extra outfit and everything critical (meds, phone charger, etc) in your carryon.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. The ONLY time a checked bag has gone missing on my many trips was a direct flight from Paris to Venice. It arrived a day late.

My sister and brother-in-law flew from Portland to Rome via Dallas October 4. Their flight from PDX was an hour late departing so they had a very tight connection at DFW. They made it but their bags did not. As of today, the bags are supposed to be delivered next Monday, October 11. Fortunately, they are not traveling around at the moment and had some spare clothing at their place in Orvieto. However, a change in the weather necessitated the purchase of a couple of pieces of warmer clothes. So, it’s wise to be prepared for the unexpected .

We carry on our bags on the way to Europe and may check a bag on the way home. This is for peace of mind. If you have late or change of planes you are covered. Pack light and travel with less baggage on your mind and weight to haul around.

I'll toss in another reason for NOT checking any bags - if something goes wrong with your flights, you might have more options for changes if you have not checked bags.

We typically fly to Europe using FF miles so at times might not have the ideal routes or connections. We once did not have a return flight to our home town scheduled but had to settle for a larger airport 1.25 hours away. We had flight delays and missed connections so I was able to give the agent our hometown as an arrival city as an option. The first question she asked - did you check any luggage? Since our answer was "no", we managed to get connections taking us directly home - a route that was not offered when we first booked our flights.

Another time, 24 hours before departure, the airline offered us a direct flight instead of a connecting flight back to the states. A year later, we were in the same city with the same return itinerary. We didn't get the direct offer 24 hours out but I checked to see if seats were available on the direct flight (first/business class). Since there were, upon arriving at the airport, I asked, at the same "change" desk we had used the previous year, if we could switch to the direct. Again, have you checked in yet and checked any baggage? "No" to both so we got switched to the direct flight. Courtesy, smiles and politeness always help, of course.

I've found the flexibility available by not checking bags to outweigh the ease afforded by checking bags. We've learned to pack lighter and smarter over the years! We use public transportation frequently in Europe so it is certainly easier to have a wheelie carry-on and an under-seat backpack type of bag as our only encumbrances.

What are the chances of our checked luggage making it from Portland to Madrid with two plane changes or will it get lost?

Statistically very good ( 98%) for the former, but the latter could happen.

The more time between flights the better the chances of success.

If you have the Delta journey with 75 minutes in AMS, I would definitely have a couple days of stuff in my carry on

Here's the European take on that:

Back in the olden days, Columbus set out to travel to India and ended up in America.

Nowadays, we set out to travel to India and our suitcases end up in America.

:-)

And here's our experience with checked luggage:

We have traveled a lot and practically always checked our suitcases (we plan to "travel light" every time and never make it). So far, we have had one suitcase arriving a day late, which certainly was annoying because it meant we had to hang around the airport for an extra day. The reason was obvious though, the feeder flight had arrived late so our generously calculated transfer time had been reduced to zero. We just barely made it into the plane, but that suitcase didn't.

Aside from those recommendations that have already been given, I'll add another one: Don't ever put valuables in your checked luggage. Most lost pieces of luggage will resurface, but there is a lot of theft on airports.