Odds of flight versus ferry

I don't have hard statistics,

But like the flights can be monitored so can the ferries either through the Shetland Council website, or through the usual ship tracking websites.

To Fair Isle the impression I get rightly or wrongly is that Grutness is the more reliable port than Lerwick (due to sea conditions). I have no feeling for whether Walls or Scalloway is the more reliable port for Foula. Walls seems to be the more sheltered port, but Scalloway is the bigger one.

If you see part 2 of Ruth's film you will see that the ferry happened to run from Foula on the day that her flight was cancelled. But the ferry is not daily to either Foula or Fair Isle. And if it can't run due to the sea conditions on a due day it will run a relief sailing on the next possible date.
You will also see the fairly lively crossing which she had and the size of vessel.

I know the time I did the Lerwick to Out Skerries ferry it was a bucking bronco of a ride- several times worse than Ruth's Foula ferry ride. But apparently just par for the course. The locals on the boat barely noticed. When I did that Skerries airfield had just closed due to a lack of people to provide fire cover, so there was no back up apart from the boat starting from Laxo or Vidlin rather than Lerwick

The ferries, like the fights will run if it is physically possible. Neither are 'unreliable'. They are running to very remote locations in very challenging conditions. Flights to Foula ceased for a time, also due to lack of fire cover. The rules say that civil fire service for an isle can't also provide the airport fire service. For very small islands that is a problem.

Because of the conditions that is why Fair Isle and especially Foula have a legendary status as being hard to reach. Papa Stour is also in that club- another Shetland island with a closed airfield, now only reachable by twice weekly book ahead only ferry.

My thought would be to do as I did for Skerries and to have cancellable back up accommodation booked in Lerwick, as well as my place on the respective Isle. And to have good travel insurance to cover costs of cancellations and overstay. To both Shetland and Orkney insurance to me is an absolute must.

There is very good reason why Papa Stour, Fair Isle and Foula remain on my 'must but incredibly hard to visit list'.

Within the last few months, a couple of Youtube videos have been posted on travel to these places. You may want to watch them and see the problems they faced.

I'm putting together an extensive trip to the Orkneys, Shetland and Outer Hebrides sometime in 2025, but I may skip these two island groups.

Sadly, I have no help to give you, but do hope you can make it there. They both sound fascinating, and I've read that Fair Isle is one of the best places in Europe to see rare birds.

Stuart- Can you think of any lodging in Lerwick that has free cancellation up to the last minute? Most seem to use 48 hours or more. Maybe in May there are chance vacancies?

By the way to follow the Shetland Inter Island flights trials and tribulations I highly recommend the AirTask facebook page- https://www.facebook.com/profile.php/?id=100057382992220

I would be very sad if Frank II amended his plans for Orkney and Shetland. Most visitors to Orkney never get off the Mainland to visit the out isles (glorious for the likes of me who has the rest to myself), likewise on Shetland the majority of visitors don't get off the main island (or if they do straight up the central spine to Unst on the two main inter island ferry routes.
Fair Isle is the only other main destination many people get to- hence the higher visitor fares on that particular ferry route- to manage demand.
jjgurley is attempting things few other visitors do, and all power to him.

Jacquie (Skye Girl) recently wrote the most wonderful travelogue of a Shetland journey. I felt as if I was in the car with her every mile of the way. Just sublime writing that summed up the unique experience which Shetland is to a T.

As for the Outer Hebrides, you probably don't need to ever touch a ferry. They could probably all be visited by air. Arguably that misses something, but it may well be possible. And Aviation up in the Outer Hebs and the North Isles is just the most wonderful thing, that cannot be recommended highly above.

Sure everything won't go perfectly, but that is part of the adventure.

Where I have always stayed is Fort Charlotte Guest House. They were always very good to me. One time I came in (pre-arranged) straight off the Aberdeen Boat and checked in right away at 8am or soon after, and even totally unexpectedly got a 2nd breakfast- they did the most wonderful Scottish breakfasts.
The first time I went they stayed up pretty late when I was on a heavily delayed flight from Glasgow which landed with several others right on airport curfew time, and it was bedlam getting out of the airport and up to town- it was close to 10pm when I finally got there.
But they were super flexible in everything they did. They even got me a coveted halls ticket for Up Helly Aa (in 2019), at the Town Hall no less, so I could roll straight back down the hill next morning.
Now they've sold up for a well earned retirement (he also ran the Chippy at the bottom of Fort Charlotte Hill), and it has passed to a new couple who promptly doubled the prices outside of my price bracket. I don't know what their new policy is, but a huge loss for me.
I was looking the other day, after Jacqui's write up, and found a new place out towards the Gilbert Bain- the Solheim Guest House.

I don't know what their cancellation policy is, but their prices are super reasonable, so would be a very affordable back up.
I'm just looking at the Isleburgh (mentioned in passing by Jacqui)- but they seem to be 72 hours notice. I wonder if they would have short notice availability in May. I've only been in there for Seamen's Mission services, so don't know what the letting rooms are like. But they are well regarded.

On Foula, there are holiday accomodations but no shops, no restaurants, no pubs, no wifi.

On Fair Isle, there are a few accomodation and a small shop. But there was also a fire there recently and I don't now how much was damaged.

If you decide to stay overnight, and your transportation back to the mainland is cancelled, that also means people coming to the island can't get there so you should be able to stay in your accomodation another night.

If you are a day tripper and get stuck, you might have problems. I've heard they allow people to shelter in the church on Foula and the museum on Fair Isle.

However, I haven't confirmed this. (I like to know my options before I travel.)

Two Youtubers--Ruth Aisling and Steve Marsh--have traveled to these places in the past couple of months and you can see how their trips went.

As for accomodations allowing last minute cancellations, well, that is probably going to be hard to find.

The Fair Island fire was in 2019 at the Bird Observatory- which was totally destroyed. All the Observatory's historic records were lost, and the wardens lost their jobs and home.
It has been rebuilt and should be re-open by next summer, from the latest reports I'm reading from the Obs. (dated 4 October 2024).
It should be the safest building in Scotland when re-opened as there was a near identical fire at the Moorfield Hotel at Brae on the North Mainland about a year later- both were modular buildings and there was a big enquiry into what had gone so badly wrong.
Personally I always wanted to stay at the South Lighthouse on Fair Isle but they closed as a result of the pandemic. The premises was returned to the Northern Lighthouse Board.
It was the last Scottish light to be automated, and has a remarkable story of two air fatal air raids during WW2. There is a memorial plaque there.

At the Auld Kirk there is also a memorial to the crew of the Spanish flagship of the Spanish Armada (the El Gran Grifon), wrecked off the island on 27 September 1588. All the men on board survived but 50 died on the island of the effects during the following 2 months and are buried there in a mass grave. The remainder departed first for Westray (Orkney- they are remembered there as the Westray Dons) then St Andrews, and then Edinburgh, on their way home.

The island has more than birds and scenery to interest you!

I read the LoganAir was planning on restoring the Kirkwall/Fair Isle route, but can't find the reference. I'd love if I could do Fair Isle "on the way" between Kirkwall and Sumburgh.

On the subject of "wishing", I wish the Uist/Mallaig ferry made a quick stop in one of the Small Isles, although I'm sure the docking arrangements aren't there. Maybe I could talk them into a close pass and jump :-)

Here is the reference re KOI to FIE flights (hope it's not geo-restricted)- https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23680572.airline-loganair-relaunches-kirkwall-fair-isle-route/

Ran from 20 May to 2 September this year.

FIE is not even on their drop down list of destinations currently- so no idea what that implies for 2025

I noticed the lack of dropdown, and will check occasionally. All this planning is for 2026, so there's a lot of time for things to change. I do my planning before reservations are open, so seeing what happens in 2025 is always informative. Looking at the Council statistics, it looks like May is a pretty good choice, at least for weather, although May seems to be the last update - hope they didn't abandon the page. I've already distilled the Airtask FB page for May '24.