From the NYT website and other sources, it appears that Portugal is experiencing a surge in cases. I have a visit to Lisbon planned on June 25, but I'm thinking about changing to Spain because the situation appears much better there. I don't want to get stuck for another week in quarantine!
I just looked up their COVID rates. Portugal's 7day average per 100,000 population is about 10 times higher than Spain's and is rising rapidly. Spain is also starting to show a rise in their rates. It is small now but who can predict 5 weeks from now.
Bob is correct,
June 25th is decades away in COVID time. For what it is worth, the Portuguese Health Site predicts that the current wave will peak the end of May. I take such predictions with a grain of salt, but there it is.
Portugal publishes their covid numbers weekly. Keep an eye on the R factor to get a feel for where they are in the wave.
Looks like it's 1.23 right now. Waves go pretty quickly, so you actually might have the perfect timing. When I was traveling last year during the Delta wave, I would pull up the facebook link and watch the trends. I felt much better once it went below 1. The number dropped rather quickly at that point. No guarantees, of course.
Spain might not be high now, but by the end of June, they could be at their peak in cases.
Alex, these types of decisions are so difficult. I understand your concern. One other statistic you might want to keep in mind is comparing these rates with the community spread rate in your home area. It might help you visualize the risk.
The other item to consider is what are the country requirements if you were to test positive in Portugal vs. Spain. Do they both have the same strictness in quarantine or is one a little easier to live with than another?
My friend visited Spain last month when Covid rates were really low. Guess what? She caught Covid there anyway, even though she wore her N95 everywhere and tried to be really careful! So honestly, it may not make that much difference.