will the Euro be weak in 2011

Forecasting currency trends is risky at best. Can you tell me where the US stock market will be in 2012? Lots of things can happen. For this summer, I would expect the dollar to trend higher because the forces on the Euro will not decrease substantially during the next few months. If the Europe economy turn sour especially the big debt nations and the Am economy continues to strengthen you might see a much stronger dollar in 2011. But a strong dollar impacts our exports which could affect our economy and weaken the dollar a bit. The single biggest contributor to a weak dollar is the deficit. It is a big guessing game with a lot of players. Personally I would stick with your original plans.

Which expert said it would go up? My reading is one said it would go down and the other said it would be flat. If you are gong to quote other experts you ought to at least understand what they are saying.

Let's hope that it is for once! For once, I would like to catch a break on the exchange rate. But, it's a crap shoot. It can swing way up or down in just a few weeks. You can't predict something like that so far out. Don't change your plans based on an exchange rate.

If we KNEW, then we'd all be in the arbitrage business. ;)

Over the last five years, I have used a budget number of $1.33 when setting up my trips for business or conferences in the EU, and I don't think(other than the first quarter of this year) it has varied 10 cents either way.
The good news for me is the way the UK Pound has dropped from $2.00 a year ago to $+/-1.52--have been urging anyone who's interested in going to the UK on holiday to go NOW. That's the real value play now--it's a 25% reduction.

The magic 8 ball says "ask again later"... It sure would be nice to be able to predict where the currencies will be. We just try saving more and then if the currencies are in our favor, maybe we stay at nicer places or do a few things a little differently.

If you have good health, go this year. Trust me, health issues can crop up when you least expect them.

It is a question no one can really answer - but - here is my "opinion" :)

The euro will continue to weaken over the long term - meaning the next 2 to 5 years. The reason (in my logic anyway) - the U.S. will come out of their recession first (indeed - it may already have - technically anyway - I think the unemployment issue is another story). In the EU countries, the inflexibility of the Euro, and further issues that will probably happen in the region (Spain, Ireland, perhaps Italy could become tomorrow's Greece) will keep the overall economic numbers weak. Indeed the Greek govt. just today announced they expected at least 2 years of negative growth. This, coupled with the German influence in the ECB and their fear of inflation, will be more than enough to keep things in Europe stagnant.

Thank you all for your thoughts. I was looking for the best educated guess. Still have not made up my mind......

My advice would be to take the trip when you want to, and forget about the exchange rate because like everyone has said, it's impossible to guess or predict what might happen. I went to Italy last fall at the near-worst time for the dollar against the Euro. Yeah it was expensive but I picked late October for a specific reason (to see the olive harvest, mainly, and it was worth every last penny) so waiting or doing it at another time wasn't an option I was willing to entertain. I had also had my trip mostly completely planned the previous April, so who knew what would happen 6 months later.

Obviously it's better if the exchange rate is more favorable (I certainly wouldn't mind if the dollar strengthens next year for another intended trip back to Italy!), but if it's really once in a lifetime as you say, then just going will be the most important thing. I would also advise over-saving. that has worked really well for me. Then if the exchange rate worsens (like it did for me), then you can still afford to have a good trip. If it doesn't get worse, then hey, you have some extra spending, I mean gelato, money to play with!

"My advice would be to take the trip when you want to, and forget about the exchange rate"

Can't argue with that!

Yes.

I see it the same as Anthony (both posts). Greece's budget trouble is hurting the Euro. The news from Greece keeps getting worse. Many are saying Portugal and/or Spain will likely be the next blow to the Euro.

It's best not to worry about things you can't control. Even if we live to 100, we have only so many years to visit the places we want to see. Chances are good we'll lose some of those years to health issues. I'd rather lose some money to bad currency rates than lose a year of travel.

I'm feeling bad for the former West Germans. They've been bailing out the former East since reunification and now they are asked to bail out the Greeks too.

So for all us non currency speculators, I am leaving for Europe in just a little less then 3 weeks. I want to have some local cash on hand when I get there so I am going to get some from my bank.

That said, should I get it now, since the Euro is at a 52 week low, or wait til about a week before we go to see if the news does get worse for Euro and it weakens further? I will also be getting some pounds, so what do you think about that?

I know this is all a guessing game, so just tell me, what would you do if you were in my shoes (and were going to get some cash before you left, because I know some of you never do)?

Get it now. The rate bounces. Never a straight line. It it is at the low it probably with climb a bit and then drop a bit. I would bet that it will improve slightly given the shoring up the Greek govt has received. Once that "positive" news is digested, the trend downward might pick up again if the Greek govt doesn't do what it needs to do.