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when to buy airfare for spring?

We are taking our first trip to Europe in April and plan to stay 3-4 weeks. We can fly out of either Chicago or Minneapolis and plan to stay in Rome, CT, Venice and Cortona during our trip. I had intended to fly open-jaw into Rome and out of Venice, which seemed to be running about $850+. Today I found a sale at Swiss Air for round trip Chicago-Zurich-Florence and back for $765, which would also work since Florence is central to every place we want to go. I know there's no guarantee, but for those of you who are seasoned travelers, should I grab this fare or expect fares to decrease?

Posted by
4555 posts

Unfortunately, there's absolutely no way to predict fares. Airlines use sophisticated computer models to predict if their flights aren't going to be full enough.....if those predictions come far enough in advance, they'll start to reduce capacity.....so a great fare today may be gone tomorrow....and any sales, whether 60, 90, or 120 days out may never surface. So if it's within your price comfort range, then grab it.....and spend the rest of your time organizing your wonderful Italian journey.

Posted by
354 posts

One philosophy is the "stock market" approach. Track airfares for a while, to get a sense of their cost, plus when they typically rise or fall. Use this information to determine a price you are comfortable with, and purchase when airfares are in that range. Also, I'm not sure if your original Chicago-Rome option is non-stop, but if so, I would gladly pay the extra $42.50 each way in order to avoid a layover.

Posted by
492 posts

We also use the stock market approach, start watching fares as soon as you can, when you see something you like grab it and don't look back. The exception for Spring would be if your dates are around Easter week. In that case, get it as soon as you can!

Posted by
3551 posts

If $850 includes all the taxes and xtra fees, buy it now.

Posted by
927 posts

I don't think there is a crystal ball either. When you post a fare, you have to specify if its one fare, two fares, one leg or both legs, and how close it gets you to the destination with out too much extra that will over-ride the initial costs. Also how much time you are wasting in transfer that you could be on site. And also if its the total fare since airlines and the adverts are not required to include the full total in their come-on ads. The ticket In-hand-total is often very different than the ad price. Ticket-in-hand is the only way to really evaluate this stuff.

Fares have to increase though since near everyone is operating at a loss right now.
Airlines, at least American Ones, seem to always operate at a loss.

Buying early, ALMOST ALWAYS, saves you money.
Its a rough rule, yet it usually works to your advantage since you get to pick your seats, and possibly the exit row ones for more leg room.

You will find NEW routes always at a little less. This is problematic if Your Dates are Hard and can't change.

So you can always go cheap some where, if you are willing to take the bump. And Bumps are GREAT since you can get free airfare for another time. This only works if you have a lifestyle that lets you change dates of travel. If you don't, then being locked in works both ways: Good for them, and good for you.

Posted by
7209 posts

There is no "best time" to buy airfare, and there's no crystal ball.

If you want good airfare then you're going to have to do enough research to KNOW when a particular airfare is a great buy. When you see it, buy it.

That's the way I've been operating for the last several years.

Posted by
1003 posts

Hi Cindy--Both those prices sound enticing. Do these prices include taxes/fees? We booked our tkts. April 21, 2009, for a departure date of July 6, 2009, flying N.W./KLM from Minneapolis to Venice (via Amsterdam) and out of Milan (also via Amsterdam). The round trip tkts were $849 and with taxes/fees the total came to $965. We thought those prices weren't bad considering it was during the summer months. It is hard to know what fares will do in the future but like a previous poster stated-- when you decide just don't look back!

Posted by
274 posts

Thanks, everyone! Since I have not flown internationally before, I didn't know if there were some secrets or standards about when to buy good fares. Thanks for all your advice!

Posted by
348 posts

I think you should monitor flights for a couple 3-4 weeks and see what rates do. I use kayak.com. It is best if you dont have specific days but if you do it is fine. Rates have not changed much in the past 4-5 weeks maybe up a couple dollars but not much. The airlines have not had much for sales inthe past 4 weeks. ure Figure in your price, if you fly in and out of one location, it means you need to pay for transportation (such as the train) to either get out of that location or to get back to it.

Posted by
348 posts

Swiss air $782 in/out rome april 16 to may 13, 2010 and venice also. I would call swiss air direct and see if you can go in one city and out the other but otherwise these seem to be pretty good rates. I dont think the rates will go down until after Dec/Jan but you never know... you never know

Posted by
274 posts

Thanks, David! I called Swiss Air. To fly open-jaw added about $50 to each ticket(in and out of Rome and Venice). And in the meantime, the flights in and out of Florence went up $40! It's not a big deal of you're only paying for one ticket, but when you're paying for four - bummer!

Posted by
274 posts

Thank you everyone for your great advice. I have also realized what a game this is, but tonight I can rest easy as a happy camper and not look back. The day after I sent my original post, the tickets went from $765 to $800 overnight. The next day, the days I wanted to fly went up to $950. I checked on Swiss Air everyday a couple times a day all week. The rates actually fluctuated every single day. Then I realized that flying open-jaw was going to cost about $50 more through Swiss Air (which you can't do on their website). So today the rates for the days I want dropped a hair. I got the days I want for $830 open-jaw and am VERY happy about it and relieved. I firmly believe now there is no formula, or trick. You're right. Just keep checking and buy when you're comfortable with the price. Now I just have to keep myself from checking prices anymore! Thanks, everyone!