Travel to Naples/Pompeii given latest supervolcano warnings

https://www.euronews.com/travel/2023/10/06/is-it-safe-to-travel-to-naples-italy-plans-for-possible-evacuations-from-super-volcano

Interesting question you pose. Can you make alternative plans now with cancellable hotel and transport arrangements? That might relieve the current stress and concern and give you time to monitor the situation as your dates approach.

I have been in multiple situations with earthquakes, typhoons, or other natural disasters occurring, imminent, or predicted. Keep your phones charged at all times. Check to see if Italy has any national emergency alert-type apps. I use one in Japan when I travel there. If you can't be notified by an emergency app, you can do your own web checking as I have also had to do.

Experts say the increased seismic activity is probably linked to a phenomenon known as bradyseism, when the earth rises, or falls, depending on the cycle, caused by the filling or emptying of underground magma chambers.
There is not an imminent threat of an eruption, most volcanologists say, but with the ground currently rising by 1.5 cm a month, there is concern over the impact on local buildings.

From the link ORDtraveler provided

Thanks to you both. The recent earthquakes are what have me most nervous. I know there has been some activity for a while, but it seems things have just ramped up quite recently. I don’t have a great pulse of what is happening locally, and whether locals are nervous or what is happening with travel groups in the past day or two. I will try to find what national emergency alert Italy uses.

I live in CA. It takes a lot of rumbling to raise our blood pressure here. I do notice that our pictures never hang level, and I attribute that to small tremors.
I'd say go, and it's great advice to keep your electronics charged, and maybe have extra battery chargers.
The percentages are in your favor. Feeling lucky? 🤞

I thought of the battery charger for phones also after posting my initial thoughts. I always travel with one. Good advice from Pat.

I just came across this article: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/travel/holiday-types/advice/naples-italy-earthquake-safe-to-travel

Thanks again. For Pat and anyone else familiar with earthquakes, how significant is a 4.0-4.2? We are not from an earthquake prone area and have never experienced one. This would really scare us. In all, I think worrying about this would just cast a shadow on our trip unfortunately, and while it’s important to know what’s happening in a region before going there, I almost wish we didn’t see this article right before leaving. Ignorance is bliss? If as others have pointed out, there is no eminent plan to actually do drills or evacuate anyone, then I’m wondering if these articles are just sensational journalism or rooted in actual scientific concern. The question remains – there are some places in the world where it’s just not really a great time to visit for whatever reason. Is that true right now for a Naples and Pompeii? Or am I overreacting? Thanks again for any and all constructive advice.

Wouldn’t a crystal ball be handy?!!

Here are a couple links that might be helpful.

https://www.mtu.edu/geo/community/seismology/learn/earthquake-measure/magnitude/

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-should-i-do-during-earthquake

I live in Los Angeles area, known for it's earthquakes. Quakes below 5.0 do not concern me. Above that are worrisome, especially above 6.0. In respect to other concerns, I would be more worried about being in or around buildings that are built with unreinforced masonry or similar construction during a substantial earthquake. Stay in a newer than 1950s era hotel? Rent on a lower floor (but not ground level). Avoid buildings with "tuck under " parking or "soft stories". Just to be safe, have a plan on what to do, where to go if an event occurs. Learn what the local authorities recommend.

I would say that you are nervous enough about earthquakes that it is worth it to change your plans. It is fine to change your plans for any reason one feels best about. Or limit your time in Naples to lower your risk; ie, see Pompeii on the last day before you fly out. Spend the rest of the time elsewhere.

OR if your gut is telling you not to go to Naples, don't go. Our guts are usually correct for one reason or another. Just my opinion, but there is so much to see in Italy that it is not worth feeling anxious or going against your gut.

Well, I was in Tokyo in 2011, at the time of the 9.1 earthquake and that was obviously very serious; but with good building regulations the earthquake it did not make much damage (it was the following tsunami that claimed almost 20,000 lives, but the earthquake in itself was survivable). In the following week, my wife and me did not even got out of bed for subsequent aftershocks in the 4 to 5 range.

But in Italy building codes are not as strict in Japan and many building are old anyway, so earthquakes in the Richter 5 to 6 range are dangerous and make extensive damages. Just for your info, we had an earthquake at 4.8 degrees, 30 miles north of Florence a couple of weeks ago but did not cause damages.

No proof of rising magma has been observed. All will be well

I'm from San Francisco and I say go to Naples and Pompeii because I'm going there next year and no earthquake(s) can stop me! Also, Hawaii has numerous volcanic eruptions and people still visit Hawaii. If the earth does quake when you're there, you'll have lots of stories to tell the folks back home about how you survived an earthquake. Have fun and if you're traveling with kids, try to make it a learning experience about geology and seismology instead of fearfulness. I've lived through numerous earthquakes. My grandmother lived through the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco. If the earth shifts it doesn't mean you're going to die. :-)

Volcanoes are going to do their own thing, and even the volcanologists can't predict an eruption. Here in Hawaii we say that it's all up to what Madame Pele wants to do. The government makes plans for what would happen in case of evacuation, but often times the volcanoes don't do what anyone thought they would do. However, it is always a good idea to stay informed and pay attention to the notices. Of course, the Italian government is going to err on the side of caution and warn people of possible evacuations, but until something actually erupts people aren't going to evacuate.

I would imagine that if you were on an official Rick Steves tour, that they would make other plans. Mainly because the safety of their clients is their main concern, and trying to move 28 people on a moment's notice would be difficult. They would not want anyone to possibly be in harm's way.

If I were you I'd stick with my original plans unless there are major changes in the next week or so.

I lived through the eruption of Mt St Helens. I’ll never forget listening to the names of people I knew being read over the radio with requests to verify they were safe or the challenge of trying to salvage what was left of another friends mud inundated home. That is said to preface my statement that I will always take earthquakes and volcanic activity seriously.

Hawaii has a different type of volcano, where the lava flows rather than having a violet eruption, so Mt. St. Helen's is a better comparison.