I'd wait on the May 12 ticket since you could get delayed along the way. When you reach Rome you can make a decision about whether it's worth it to you to pay (probably) the full fare of 48 euros to take the fast train to Naples or you're willing to spend an extra 1 hour or more in transit on a slower train. I'll let others address your detailed questions about that day.
Fares on the Freccia trains from Naples to Rome seem to range from about 20 euros (non-refundable/non-changeable, probably needing to be bought well in advance) to the aforementioned 48 euros. There are many fast trains every hour, so unless there is something unusual about the date you are traveling (holiday, etc.), I don't think you need to be concerned about a sell-out. And all the fast trains probably won't be as expensive as 48 euros, based on what I'm seeing for today's and tomorrow's trains. Why don't you take a look at the May 17 fares shown on trenitalia.com every day or two. As long as you continue to see lots of trains at attractive times at prices you'd be willing to pay, you can let it ride. Once you're sure of your timing, you probably will save some money if you go ahead and make the purchase.
The Rome-Venice trip on May 21 is potentially going to be rather costly if you don't buy the ticket in advance. It's a 3 hr. 45 min. trip. I see prices on some May 21 trains below 40 euros at this point. The base fare (what you might pay at the last minute) seems to be 87 euros. So this is the ticket I would be most interested in purchasing in advance. There seem to be about 2 Freccia trains per hour running between Rome and Venice.