TGV to Freccia Connection

I'd probably buy the 15:12 tickets & thus giving yourself that extra time... just in case...

You can always grab a late lunch or a snack at Milano Centrale.

Edit: Awis, will you be taking the TGV train from Paris Gare de Lyon (leaving @ 6:25am) to Milano Centrale?

6:28 from Gare de Lyon to Milano Porta Garibaldi

If your train were to be arriving at Milano Centrale I would have said that the first train with 20 minutes to move a few platforms would have been a simple connection.

However, you have shot yourself in the foot a little because you have to get between the two stations and to do that in 20 minutes is a risk I wouldn't want to attempt. Even if everything went perfectly I wouldn't expect it to work.

Go for the later train.

SNCF (TGV) is one of the members of RailTeam, which is a trade group of high speed operators in Europe. They agree to allow later travel on their members if one of their trains has caused a delay. Unfortunately, no Italian companies subscribe to the group, and trying to make a connection from a remote station doesn't count anyway.

Go for the later train.

awis,

As you're arriving at Milano Porta Garibaldi, another solution would be to book an Italo train from there direct to Florence. That way you wouldn't have to change stations which would save some time. I believe there's a departure from Porta Garibaldi at 14:27, arriving Firenze SMN at 16:25 and that one should work for you.

If you don't book Italo, I agree that the later train would be best.

You can also book the train with change in Torino Porto Susa station, instead of Milan, as I recommended to you on an earlier thread.