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Talk me off the ledge!!!

Ok....so I've been researching and planning my Italy trip for over 4 years now. I've been watching airline prices for the month of June for just as long. The flights I want have hovered around $1800. for the month of June pretty consistantly the past few years. Now that I am ready to purchase, I can't find them under $2000....currently, the flight I want is running $2200.......ugh! I have specific flights that I want (lay-over times, arrival times, etc.) and there are a whole lot of flights that I don't want! I've been primarily looking at KAYAK. F.Y.I......I'm planning on booking flights for 5 people.......2 adults leaving Sacramento (May 26) and arriving in Nice......3 adults leaving Sacramento (May 31) and arriving Naples. We will all leave Milan June 26th for Sacramento. I'm feeling an urgent need to purchase these tickets soon so that I get the flights that I want, but don't want to pay $2200. for the tickets. At this point, I'm thinking I should purchase them within the next couple of weeks and hope they drop back down to $2000. And the fact that KAYAK notes "Only 4 seats remaining at this price" on my desired flights adds to my stress level. Any sage advise from you experienced travelers?

Posted by
477 posts

Well I can see just over 1800 for those dates, but leaving San Francisco with KLM. I've always booked directly through the airlines own website, not one like Kayak. In general if you have changes made to your tickets ( which can happen when you are booking that far ahead) it is easier to deal directly with the airline.

If you absolutely have to have those flights for your peace of mind, then maybe go for it. Eat some extra picnic meals to make up the difference in price.

Posted by
426 posts

I have traveled in Europe in May - June 3 times in the past 10 or so years and I never bought my tickets before Feb. or so. There could be a sale that would help you, etc... This seems too early. I always figure they are just selling to people who will are determined to have certain dates and will book far ahead at any price. If you really think the flight is selling out, you can preview available seats.

You can also try Skyscanner or Momondo to find better rates on another airline or website, or if you must absolute have THE ONE flight at any price, go to that airline's website.

Posted by
1204 posts

Hi beth. Just as a double check - have you thought through what amount of additional $$ you are willing to spend to get those exact flights? By focusing on only those exact flights, you are restricting yourself greatly. Have you decided how much that is worth to you? For instance, if you could save $400 per person x 5 people, that is $2000. Is it really worth $2000 more just to save a few hours connecting time, etc.? If it were me, I would consider multiple flights / connection points / times etc. i.e. if I could arrive 3 hours later, but have an extra $1000 in my pocket to spend when I get there, I would gladly do that. Whatever you decide, enjoy your trip! p.s.... this far out, the 'only 4 seats left....' is only a marketing gimmick. The prices / seat availability for any given flight will change 20 times between now and next May. Next week or next month there may be 2 seats available in that category - or ten - or eight seats for $300 less, or........

Posted by
1231 posts

I personally would not buy tickets this far in advance. When I travel in May, (when I usually travel) I research in Jan. Feb. & Mar. If I find a good deal, I snap it up.

Also, use other sites besides Kayak. Skyscanner is one used by members here. I personally use Orbitz. There are many more, I am sure others will recommend those that I am not familiar with.

Posted by
7453 posts

Buying now for June is still very early, and I wonder when you say you were looking at ticket prices, they really weren't for June 2016, they were for previous "Junes" at different times. Just a wild guess, while June is peak price time, I think best prices will settle from January until March; to be safe for selection, you could look at December.

Besides Kayak, I would also price on the airline Kayak indicates, they will be a better indication of seat availability.

I think you can expect a better price, maybe even under 2000, as low as 1500,(but what do I know?) but you might have to compromise on flights.

If it helps, think it as at $2000, that is only $66 a day airfare cost, at $2200, only $73/day or another $7/day. Many people go for two weeks, meaning their daily cost at $2000 is $143, you gain by having an extended trip.

Posted by
2111 posts

Beth,

At the risk of sounding like "Nellie Negativity," I'll share my thoughts:

I also look carefully at flight times, connections, seat availability (I like planes that offer the two seats by themselves on the side in comfort coach), and, of course, price. I usually book way out time wise (like you are considering). I do, however, only look at the airlines' web sites.

BUT, I have to say that most of the time, lately, when I book many months in advance, my plans get messed up by re-routing that is subsequently done by the airlines. Flight time changes, or they might drop a flight from Nashville to NY or Atlanta on the day I want to return, which then requires an overnight stay before arriving home. Or, in another case, the rescheduled flight meant we had to leave home much, much earlier to catch a flight from Atlanta to go to NY to then connect vs. just flying from Nashville to NY and on.

The "only 4 seats at this price," in my opinion, is a way to get you to book now. They may very likely have 30-40 other seats that subsequently will be offered at a lower price later.

It's a big gamble....no one really knows what is best time wise. Just make your booking when YOU feel comfortable with the price and routing.

One year I (stupidly) booked early, then I paid the $250 rebooking fee twice to subsequently rebook at lower prices, and I still came out ahead. Like I say, I did not choose wisely WHEN to make my purchase. We were meeting a tour, so I wanted to lock in to a certain appealing arrival time. I should have waited.

If your flights get rescheduled by the airline, such that you are inconvenienced (and usually the rescheduling is not better), you might then be in a position to negotiate a bit with the airline. After I had a flight change twice, I was actually able to negotiate a complimentary upgrade to business class on one of the overseas legs AND additional FF mileage points AND a credit voucher of $300 each for future flights. It took over an hour on the phone, nicely pushing my point (believe me you don't want me to type out all the hassles the airline put us through, including a rep telling us a flight was cancelled when I was simultaneously looking on-line at the airlines' site and seeing it was still available). But, sometimes subsequent negative changes can be turned into positive outcomes if one is tenacious enough, is backed up with facts, and goes thru multiple changes in an itinerary, each one getting worse and worse. But, I gotta say, it will wear you out trying. But, for the amount of money saved, assuming I was being paid for the time I spent negotiating, I "made" pretty good money that day! But, again, it is emotionally draining going thru the hassles of changed flights, especially after one selects with such care the times, seats, connections, etc. they desire.

Again, not wanting to appear negative....just sharing my experience/mistakes.

$2200, if basic coach, seems a bit high to me, but who knows?

Posted by
3938 posts

You might do what several Bay Area people have done recently or contemplated doing. Our son's family did something like this in July and saved us $$$-- we were purchasing 6 tickets. If you can get to LAX (car rental or SW flight) there are $1000 flights, total RT per person on Norwegian airlines that go through Oslo then to the cities in France/Italy that you are aiming for, all on the same ticket. Norwegian is a budget airline with new planes but they only fly from LAX about four times per week--I don't remember the specific days of the week. The price you first see is for the flight only. They charge something like $59 more to select a seat, have meals and check a bag. This raises the price to still less than $1100 per person.

There was a recent thread on RS about Norwegian airlines. One concern that people have is that this is a stand alone airline. They have no partners and do not fly every day of the week. It worked for 4 in our family this summer with no problems. Our son's family actually liked the plane configuration and service.

Just thinking outside of the box...perhaps beyond your comfort level?

EDIT: I checked Oakland and Norwegian has flights out of there also for $1000 per person round trip but they only fly 3 days a week, for instance May 28 NOT May 26, OAK-OSL-Nice.

Posted by
7737 posts

You're freaking out needlessly. Here's what I do. A lot of airlines will let you start the reservation process for the tickets and then let you see how full the flight is by showing you the seat selection before you pull the credit card trigger. My guess is that your flights are virtually empty this far in advance. That means prices are likely to go back down to $1800 in the next few months. When they do, BUY THEM THEN! Go directly to the airline site, not through something like kayak.

Posted by
2111 posts

Beth,
Michael is absolutely right!! After my first really big stupid mistake that I reference above, I've definitely started doing what Michael suggests. I watch the seats fill up (or not fill up), I watch the prices go up/down, and then at a certain time I make my buy.
I'd suggest checking every two weeks or so at this point, and then maybe a bit more frequently during the second week in January thru February.
My purchases lately have not been as bad $-wise (one learns from mistakes), but the re-routing changes still happen, which then blows the perfectly selected flight plan. All part of the "joys" of traveling nowadays.

Posted by
2380 posts

Hi Beth,

I start looking for airfares (for travel in June) in mid-January and usually get a good price. Tuesday pm and Wed. am seem to be the times of day for securing the best price for me anyway. We flew open jaw this past summer from Reno to Paris and then Marseille to Reno for about $1,500. each. The flights were about 19 to 20 hours (horrible, I know) with a change in Dallas on the way out and a stop in Madrid, then Dallas on the way back. I am willing to sacrifice and add a few extra hours to the flight times or an extra stop for a decent price. I also look at the fares from Sacramento as sometimes they are less than from Reno and my daughter lives 15 min from the Sac airport so easy peasy. Even booking in January for a June flight, the airlines can still drop a leg of the flight, change the routing, etc. so you need to keep any eye on your reservations to be sure they don't change. I can sympathize with you re: the price of the flights. I used to live near Boston and it was certainly less expensive to fly from there and also a much shorter flight time to Europe - 6 hours vs. the 20 that I have to endure now. Good luck.

Mary

Posted by
419 posts

Flying in and out of Milan is way cheaper. Last year I came across an online article that discussed airports around the world the were much cheaper to fly in and out of. Our family of 4 save $2000 flying in and out of Milan. But you have to fly both in and out of. Not just in or not just out. I don't know why it worked that way but it did. We took a train all the way back from Bruges, Belgium to Milan, added 2 extra days to our trip and still saved $2000. Plus we got to see the Worlds Fair in Milan and the all day train trip was pretty spectular.

Posted by
5697 posts

Beth, if you haven't pulled the trigger by the 19th, come by Panera to talk to other travel addicts .. um, aficionados at the Sacramento Travel Group.
FYI, I got our tickets for next April-May as soon as reservations opened (using miles so the prices don't change) and looking at seat maps this week it looks like SFO - CDG and FRANKFURT - SFO both have ample space available in economy. Don't panic with Kayak's 4 seats notice.

Posted by
973 posts

Sometimes clearing your cookies or using a different computer ( work? home? friends?library?) changes your results. One airline is more notorious for giving the best results on the first flight search. Also, you may be able to get one ticket for a lower price, but not 4- put n one and see what happens. go to the airline directly and look at the vacation packeges- you have to sleep somewhere and you can sometimes get a better schedule for the same price if booking a hotel for a few nights.
Also, there are still ticket consolidators- check with one of the reputable ones and see- you probably won't get frequent flyer miles, it will be extremely difficult to change your flights or and cancelling will probably be a total loss.. but I have to agree, this is a little early for booking next summer.

Posted by
15043 posts

it's too early to book now. I never buy more that 4 or 5 months ahead. Check prices from SFO instead of SMF.

Posted by
1547 posts

I find the search engine at google.com/flights much better than Kayak or the other booking sites. You can put it upto five airports in the origin and 5 in the destination and it does a pretty great job of searching and does it really fast. In essence this is backed by itasoftware in the backend.

Posted by
254 posts

I use Hipmunk.com, bestfares.com, Yahoo/travel to find the flights I am interested in and then definitely book with the airline directly. The 4 seats left means that's how many Kayak can offer. The more flexibility you have the more likely you can get a better price. If you look at leaving from San Francisco or Oakland or even, San Jose, all will be less than 2 hours from Sacramento, and give you many more options.
So, since I love this kind of thing, I just went to Hipmunk and searched your cities and dates and found the lowest available fare of $2,060. I also did a SFO-Nice on May 26 and Milan to SFO on June 26. Lowest available is $1265 (WOW) on Turkish Airlines. I flew Turkish Air last year to Istanbul (I was hesitant) and it was amazing. I would choose it again in a heartbeat.
If you feel the urgent need to get your tickets now, just do it, but I sure would rather pay $1265 and work my schedule a little differently, especially when its a long trip like yours.
Have fun.

Posted by
4138 posts

ITA Matrix is a resource you might try. You can fool around with it to find flights, airlines and costs, but you have to go to the airlines to book.

I tried your exact dates and routes and the results were the same as you described. However, doing a "multi-city" search SFO to Paris CDG then Milan MXP back to SFO cut the price down to about $1500.

But...the airline is Aer Lingus and there is an overnight in Dublin on the way home due to the long layover. Like others have said, sometimes the cheap airfares have quirks that can obliterate any savings on the airfares themselves -- unless the quirk might be fun.

Another quirk of that routing is that you would have to book a flight from CDG to Nice (check ITA Matrix for options) or take a fast TGV train from CDG to Nice or spend the night in Paris

Most of those flights would be cheap, but a bit of a hassle. The train would be cheaper by buying tickets from SCNF when they are first offered. In either case, scheduling might not be the best.

By using the "multi-city" option, messing with dates and departure cities, I was able to find many alternatives in that $1500 ballpark, but they all had quirks to deal with. The Aer Lingus routing above is only one example.

Posted by
72 posts

Thank you to everyone who took the time to reply......my hyperventilating has ceased! I'm pretty firm on my departure and arrival to Sacramento, even though it will be more expensive....the convenience is worth it to me. I'm also pretty firm on my flight plans. I've received plenty of suggestions that I plan to research further......thanks! As you probably can tell, I tend to do things WAY IN ADVANCE and waiting to purchase these tickets will be very difficult for me. Thanks again for helping me take a deep breath during this process........Beth

Posted by
30 posts

Hi Beth,

For reference, here is what I just did in August.
Los Angeles to London $435 on Norwegian
Barcelona to Milan $75 Vueling
Venice to Bangkok (via Abu Dhabi) $480
Bangkok to Los Angeles (via Tokyo) $881

My total was $1871 per person. I traveled with my wife. It helps to be more flexible but with a larger group I understand it can be difficult.

Nik

Posted by
11613 posts

To reiterate a point made earlier, you may be firm in your plans and selections but the airline can reschedule you. I try not to get too attached to a particular time/route.

Posted by
415 posts

If you are going to be using a European based airline for any portion of your trip, it may be too early to get the cheapest seats.

I was going to book a flight from Toronto to Florence which means a transfer in Frankfurt and a Lufthansa flight from Frankfurt to Florence (code shared with all Star Alliance airlines, but operated by a Lufthansa subsidiary). I wanted a specific flight from Frankfurt as I wanted the same flight as friends coming from Vancouver.

When I called to book these flights in January for September (2015), the agent advised me to wait 3 or more weeks as Lufthansa would not release any cheap seats until later. The agent was correct. That suggestion saved me over $200.

And, I agree that airlines can adjust flight schedules at will and your carefully laid plans may not come to fruition. Anything can happen to schedules between now and next June.

Posted by
7175 posts

I would start looking again in November/December. Use Skyscanner or Kayak as a guide for best fares, times and connections - but then go to the airline site when you are ready to book.

Posted by
1446 posts

To re-state the obvious points that Zoe and others have mentioned:

Schedule changes, changes in aircraft, and even re-routing are now NORMAL and to be EXPECTED.
Do not pay much extra for EXACTLY the itinerary that you want: chances are... it will change!

The only advantage that you can count on for booking early is a lower price, when it shows up. A specific itinerary isn't a given and should not be counted on.

On planning: allow yourself some leeway and flexibility. An overall itinerary is rarely followed exactly as drawn up... people happen, time is chewed up, unexpected delays/events pop up, schedules change.

The plane tickets is just one of a trip's variables that you can choose to not stress over too much.

Keep watching the prices, hope for a seat sale, and cross your fingers once the tickets are booked. That's the best that you can do. Buy when your price point has been met.

Posted by
72 posts

Thanks again for all the wonderful advise. I looked at some of the other search sites, as well as the airlines yesterday and the prices all seem to be the same for the flights I like. What is amazing....and puzzling to me is the large number of flights that include very short layover times (under 2 hours) when a traveler would need to go through customs. For me, that is one of the biggist deterents for me to choose those particular flights. I am also grateful for the "heads up" on the re-routing situation......better to know of potential problems ahead of time. I will continue checking daily (can't help myself), but I will be more patient now with all of your advise. I budgeted $2000.00 per ticket (based on what I've been seeing for those flights the past few years) and hope to hit that price point soon!

Posted by
1825 posts

Go to your web browser settings and delete cookies and clear the cache. Repeated searches on the same computer will lead to the websites only showing higher prices.

Posted by
544 posts

Check out this article about flights and when to buy: https://www.cheapair.com/blog/travel-tips/how-far-in-advance-should-you-book-an-international-flight/

They recommend 271 days for flights USA - Europe.

It is consistent with my experience for summer travel from our west coast airports. The sooner you book the better for transatlantic flights. Especially these days with oil prices at their lowest and airports seeing record growth, I think there's a good chance of fares going up a lot as we get closer to next summer. Especially from the west coast where there are fewer flight options.

Posted by
544 posts

There are a lot of comments here about how buying now for next summer is early and I agree for us as Americans that it is early. My Norwegian relatives, however, and their epic long summer vacations religiously book their summer travel right alway when reservations become available. I think that is why Europe flights don't follow the same demand patterns as flights within USA and Canada.

Posted by
34 posts

wow, those rates are incredible. Last year I flew RT to Milan from JFK on Delta nonstop for $553- for an April trip. I used miles for the Seattle-JFK run and it cost me very little.

This year I purchased same for $657- but for a Sept trip. Used miles again for Seattle-JFK and it cost me just over $11-

I always upgrade to Economy Plus. I purchase 4-6 months in advance and never see better deals when considering rates, airline preference, nonstop vs layovers etc. I have read articles that suggest the best time to purchase tickets but that hasn't proven beneficial or accurate in my experience. Seems like you miss good seat choices if you wait too long.

I use Trip Advisor fare alerts and often see great deals, albeit mostly on airlines I wouldn't prefer to fly with. I think the most I ever paid RT to Roma or Venice from Seattle was about 1200ish

I know Summer rates are higher, but I won't stand for the heat and crowds of summer. I prefer late summer/early fall. I wish I could be in Toscana when the sunflowers are popping and the wheat is waving but I guess that's not going to happen.

I recently saw deal alerts from Trip Advisor for Seattle to Roma RT of $504- in one case, and just under $600- in another. Don't know the airlines but might be worth registering your flight preferences there to receive alerts.

Posted by
7175 posts

Depending on the routing (countries involved), ticketing (whether it's and interline booking) and airport terminal design, you do not necessarily clear customs at the point of your flight connection.

Posted by
127 posts

Beth, you have a good travel agent in Auburn at Havealark Travel. Her name is Shone and I have used her many times. I know that using a travel agent costs a bit more, but it saves on stress. I do most of my other reservations, but I want those tickets nailed down without surprises.

Posted by
261 posts

Get two American Airlines master cards & half your trip would be free.