Hard Choice - Advance Purchase of Train Tickets

[Edited out a comment on the original headline of the thread, since changed]
Mid-May is soonish, so I would not expect any dramatic schedule change, and 4.5 hours is a generous buffer. I would go ahead.

So sorry, Balso. I really wasn't thinking about how that my have come off. I will change the title of my subject line and thank you for your advice.

I would go ahead and buy that ticket, too.

Thanks, LIZinPA! It's always reassuring to have confirmation of one's thinking!

The real question here is "Does the savings out weigh the risk?". That is a very personal decision.

Is your lodging a hotel/B&B or is it an airbnb type of lodging? The reason I’m asking is that I have always been able to leave off my suitcase before check-in with the first option. And in that case, I would buy the ticket the day of arrival to spend any extra time in Florence walking outside.

If your lodging won’t allow early drop off of your luggage, then I might buy my ticket from the airport into central Rome the day of travel and wander a bit before taking the pre-purchased train to Florence. I would rather be outside walking & passing time than sitting at the airport waiting after arrival.

Thanks, EVERYONE for taking the time to respond. Jean, that is a good point about leaving one’s luggage prior to the actual check-in. Come to think of it, I think my lodging does permit that – I will double check.

TDW, you get extra credit for checking the train schedule – so very kind of you. I think I am still more comfortable with the fast train as I want to end up at SM. Novella rather than Rifredi. My lodging is not far from SM Novella and I am more familiar with the station.

While I am not a big fan of on-going tickets after an arrival. we have done it several times. We allow about five hours to cover an arrival delay or other logistical problems. Always worked until the last trip. On the US plane, getting settle for the flight, when it was announced that the flight was cancelled. It was three days before we could be reschedule and obviously we missed the next flight. Out of pocket costs was just a hundred each. Over the years we probably had saved more than that with advance discount tickets so just the cost of traveling. Having been through the Rome airport and Termini a number times and once taking three hours to clear immigration, I would would wait I arrived to buy the ticket.

Buy tickets now.
Arrive at FCO.
Catch train.

Buy tickets now.
Arrive late at FCO.
Buy fresh tickets.

You have might have wasted a bit of money, big deal, but not spoiled your holiday.