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My trip to Italy leaving April 24th. Should we go?

My daughter and I have planned and paid for a trip to Rome, Florence, and Venice for 15 days leaving April 24th which is a trip of a lifetime - neither of us has been to Europe, and we are very excited. I need to make the decision to go or not this week. I'm wondering if it's worth taking the chance with the coronavirus outbreak or if we should cancel and plan it for another time? I know lots of venues are closed until April 3rd. Do you think things will be anywhere back to normal by April 24th? Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

Posted by
8257 posts

Amy, I don't have any particular insight for you. I do wish you well on which ever choice that you do make. I think you need to ask yourself how the stress of this situation might impact your dream trip, even if you do go.

Posted by
930 posts

I'd watch and see, but it's looking doubtful - we have a trip planned to Italy May 1 - and we are in wait and watch mode.

At this point, they are saying not to go and everything we'd want to see and do is closed down right now. Plus, airline and train travel is risky. No one knows what to tell you at this point. I think these next 3 weeks will tell us a lot.

Posted by
2699 posts

Nobody can answer that question. Even the worlds experts in virology and public health have no idea how far this will spread, how long it will last. We leave May 31 for Italy. If RS tours go, we go. Otherwise we stay home. I know the profound disappointment that comes with canceling a long planned trip, I’ve been there. But Italy is not going anywhere, and you’d enjoy it a lot more without this hanging over your head.

Posted by
6113 posts

As with all the other Coronavirus questions on this forum, the answer is that no one knows, but based on what has happened in China, it seems most unlikely that the situation will be resolved by April. The parts of Italy you are visiting are currently in lockdown, so at present, you wouldn’t have any choice. The U.K. government has warned against travel to northern Italy, which for me would invalidate any travel insurance were I to go there now. The situation is fluid and a lockdown for months isn’t practical.

If you can postpone, I would, so that you can visit without worry.

Posted by
2922 posts

Hi Amy,
Travel.state.com raised it to a level three which means reconsider travel. Have you considered exchanging your ticket elsewhere in Europe? That’s what a lot of people are doing.

Posted by
5835 posts

If you have to ask you shouldn't go. The March 8 lockdown decree affecting much of northern Italy until early April. Will the lockdown be extended? Only time will tell.

Posted by
16025 posts

Amy, have you read any of the existing coronavirus threads on this website? Particularly the ones where people discuss the possible ramifications of going to Italy—-getting stuck in a quarantine, possibly picking up the virus and bringing it home even without personal illness, and now the very real consideration of the impact on the Italian health care system, which is currently stretched to its limits.

The situation is rapidly changing and no one know how things will be 6 weeks from now. But I will say that we canceled our March 4 trip to Italy about 10 days ahead, when things did not look nearly as dire as they do now. And we are very, very glad we did.

If you have flights and bookings that can be changed to a later date, that is something that I would advise you to consider.

Posted by
2942 posts

It depends on your health. There is the regular flu and other viruses particularly prominent at this time of year

From what I've read healthy people and those without underlying health issues are weathering the coronavirus fine.

Posted by
2699 posts

From what I've read healthy people and those without underlying health issues are weathering the coronavirus fine.

Not true. Young people have died from this. The mortality is much higher than that of influenza. Yes, elderly and chronically ill are at higher risk, but don’t think you’ll just be fine if you are young and healthy.

Posted by
26831 posts

I wouldn't express it nearly as optimistically as BigMike (caveat: I have no medical background). When I set out on a vacation, my goal is more than not to die. I want to go inside some tourist sights. I take buses and trains. It's far easier for me to hunker down away from crowds here at home than as a tourist in Europe.

The current coronavirus stats for Italy (on the Johns Hopkins Dashboard) show 7,375 people infected, of whom 366 have died. Both numbers increased a lot today.

Posted by
2 posts

I think, it all depends on what your deadlines are for refunds, changes, etc. My mother and I have been planning to leave on April 30th for a 3 week Italy trip that includes a 9 day RS tour. Most of our flights, hotels, etc. are refundable/changeable until at least late April. Things seem to be changing so fast there is no way to know for sure what will be happening by late April. We’ve pretty much decided if the State Department warning gets reduced and the RS tour isn’t cancelled, we will go. I keep an eye on what date the RS cancellations have been extended to, but for my own stress levels, I’m trying not to check that or (especially) these forums too obsessively. I’m thinking about alternatives a little (if the tour does get cancelled, trying to change our trip to Sept or Oct?) but trying to be optimistic. Honestly, at this point it almost seems like by May, it will be less likely that we’ll be too scared to go to Italy and more likely that Italy won’t want Americans/Washingtonians to come there! So, my personal recommendation would be to double check all my cancellation deadlines, come up with a couple loose alternative plans, and then just wait and see until those deadlines get closer.

Posted by
1611 posts

I'm in a similar situation, although I have a little more time. I'm supposed to leave May 3. That's 8 weeks away. So, for now, I'm waiting.

What is the reason you have to decide this week? I'm thinking I wouldn't cancel, anyway, until I'm more likely to be able to change my flight. (I got a very cheap fare), and I don't think that's likely until closer to the date, if things are still bad.

Posted by
1878 posts

I would not go to Italy right now, it's one of most heavily affected countries. You could end up not being able to get back. Or affcted by lockdowns within Italy, and quarantined upon your return.

Posted by
11027 posts

My $0.02

If your window to cancel without financial harm ends this week, I would wait until then and push the cancel button. ( give it every chance to show a turnaround, however unlikely that is.)

My take on the reports about the situation in Italy is things are still in the 'getting worse' category.

From what I have seen of the reports about China, Italy is probably 6 weeks from the growth in cases to start to flatten out.

Plan your trip when things have resolved so you can fully enjoy the experience

Posted by
22 posts

Take what you read here and on other public forums with healthy skepticism - I think comments like by Alan from Folsom are borderline irresponsible. This particular virus is so new no hard-and-fast conclusions can be made. The following is from an article on the World Economic Forum site:
Medical journal The Lancet warns any estimates should be “treated with great caution because not all patients have concluded their illness (ie, recovered or died) and the true number of infections and full disease spectrum are unknown”.
It adds: “Importantly, in emerging viral infection outbreaks the case-fatality ratio is often overestimated in the early stages because case detection is highly biased towards the more severe cases.”

Posted by
3 posts

Thank you all for your input. I will be making my decision today and am leaning towards postponing for a later date.

Posted by
73 posts

It's possible that by late April the number of new cases in Italy will be on the wane, as in China right now, but that the number of new cases in the US will be surging. US travelers might not be permitted to enter Italy or other countries for fear that they might be bringing the coronavirus with them.

Posted by
7595 posts

Joe is right, wait until there is an official cancellation or if you have insurance, it covers cancellation (such as a travel ban).

Posted by
55 posts

Amy, I am in the same position. My daughter and I are supposed to depart on April 26th for three weeks. Also traveling to Florence, Venice & Rome. I'm trying to stay optimistic, hoping to see some improvement by then but do realize the reality is pretty grim. We're flying in and out of Rome on United. But as it stands now United is only waving fees for the RedZone and the closing of the museums (we have reservations) wouldn't affect us....yet. Of the three hotels we have reservations for (I booked direct), only one has been prepaid. All three were supposed to charge at the time of booking (Nov.8th) but have not (I have confirmations). Go figure. I explained all of this to American Express a week ago when the situation really started to escalate. They told me not to worry if I need to cancel. That because of the unprecedented situation they would fight to recover the money spent so far and block the other two hotels from charging if need be. Sooooooo, I am waiting it out. Partly because we're hopeful, and if it does get worse, and restrictions are expanded, then disputes for refunds will be a little less painful.

Posted by
16025 posts

I think spequigney must have misread Alan's ( of Folsom) posts. There is nothing irresponsible there.

Posted by
5 posts

We are in the same boat as you, leaving end of April, flying into Rome. Hoping RS cancels all April tours sooner than later if things keep escalating like it has been. We are 90% certain we will not be traveling to Italy end of April, but waiting on RS to cancel. If by some miracle the travel bans get lifted then we'll talk then, but it's looking grim for Italy for several weeks....

Posted by
22 posts

I said "borderline irresponsible." Exact Alan quote: "The mortality is much higher than that of influenza." Statement from Lancet: "Importantly, in emerging viral infection outbreaks the case-fatality ratio is often overestimated in the early stages because case detection is highly biased towards the more severe cases.” Capisce?
Look at the plot at the lower right of the JHU tracking site, especially the logarithmic tab.

My only intent is to deal in facts, nothing personal or self-aggrandizing.

Posted by
4255 posts

I'm not a fear-monger and until last night, (when my husband's company said "no way" ) was still planning to go to England at the end of the month. However, when compared to flu, not only does the coronavirus have a higher mortality rate(which I agree is skewed by all the mild cases that are not included in the statistics), it also has a higher R0 value which measures how many people each case is likely to infect, and the word "novel" in its name means that no one is immune to it. The scariest part is that you can infect someone before you have symptoms.

Posted by
16025 posts

Si, capisco.

But you are not dealing in facts either. What is the date of that Lancet article?

The problem of under-reporting of cases has been recognized and was incorporated into the recently- revised mortality rate announced by WHO, from 3.4% down to 1.4%. That is still much higher (by a factor of 10) than the 0.1% mortality rate from seasonal influenza.

If you look at the Johns Hopkins charts, you will see that the curves for total cases and # of deaths for "other countries" between February 23 and March 8 are rising at the same rate.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/coronavirus-updating-charts-maps

Every medical professional we know agrees that this coronavirus is more serious and deadly than seasonal flu, and needs to be contained as soon as possible. We know many such professionals because my husband is a physician, and most of his friends as well as colleagues are also MD's, many in the fields of epidemiology and public health.

Posted by
1507 posts

I explain how the coronavirus illness works. First, you have an incubation period; you may be infective without knowing, or you may not be infective at all. Most say this period may be up to 15 days long, so that people have to be quarantined for two weeks. But I just got a recent news fro Switzerland, they are to shorten quarantine periods to 5 days as they say most people develop the illness in 3-5 days - this is official Swiss information but no other place holds this view.

If you get infected, you have a 90% probability of developing something like a light flu. Fever and dry cough are the most common symptoms; but you may also get out without any symptom. But a 10% of infected develops a very nasty form of pneumonia (interstitial pneumonia) and need urgent assistance with breath sustaining equipment in an intensive care unit, as they will not be able to breathe on their own. Elderly people or people with previous conditions are not likely to survive, the illness is very nasty to young people but may be survived if you have breathing support; if supported, people heal spontaneously in 2 or 3 weeks.

Now you have a lot of people at the same time keeping busy intensive care beds for 3 weeks. In Lombardy, hospitals were designed to have on average 40% of IC beds free to take care of all eveniences while 60% are busy with patients from every sort of condition. They noticed a strange peak of abnormal pneumonia around Xmas but nobody connected it with coronavirus. (Some countries still try not to connect the dots, for example Germans that have 1000 infected but pretend they are not dying - they are obviously dying but classified as flu or pneumonia or whatever).

When the coronavirus connection was evident, Lombardy hospitals summoned all their nurses and physicians - some were already getting ill, by the way - and most of them had to work in infectivology for their first time in their careers. Operating theaters and ordinary beds were converted to intensive care beds - and you need to have them in isolation too or they will infect the whole hospital. Some brought tents in front of hospitals for non-COVID patients and all form of health assistance are reduced as possible to make space for COVID treatment.

The problem is that the system is now saturated, and remember that the Lombardy hospital system is probably one of the best in the world; better than the average Italian that is quite good even on average. What is happening? If there are more patients than intensive care beds, physicians have to choose - triage is the term - who they are going to treat and who they are leaving to die. If you are over 60 or with previous conditions, you are going to die all the same so it is better to treat young people. Anesthesiologists are entrusted with the choice, and they are crying and weeping for people to stay home, in order to slow the infection and buy time for hospitals to cope. - But if they cannot treat all the needy people, mortality goes up.

Now the government is trying to minimize social contacts - in order to slow the infections. We hope it works or the situation will get out of control. Just to tell how bad it is, in the last 24 hours we had 1598 new cases, 97 deaths and 102 that made it out of hospital. In 24 hours! Cases are doubling every two days and half. It has to be stopped and the only way is by keeping as many people home.

This is Italy now. But remember: this is a run - China started first, Italy and a few other states started second and are running at the same pace of China, with a three weeks delay. Other countries are already running but they do not know and will be in our situation in two or three weeks. If you have to decide, consider not only the Italian situation (bad enough) but also your home situation - how will it be in a few weeks.

Posted by
20 posts

Writing just to commiserate as we are also in a similar situation. Planned to travel April 29-May 8, staying in Bologna and Rome. Our flights are in/out of Rome. We are flying with American American who are currently allowing changes for trips through April 24 but this does not apply to us.

I work at a hospital that on Friday advised it would be following CDC recommendation; persons returning from Italy would be requested to self quarantine and not return to work for 14 days AFTER returning from Italy. It is such a grey area right now given that it is still 2 months away. On Friday, I was still being hopeful things might be good enough by May for us to go. On Sunday, my husband and I decided that we should at least cancel the Bologna portion (currently all refundable other than ~200$ in train tickets to and from Bologna) and we would maybe go to Naples instead, since the south seems a little safer. Today, I am pretty sure we will not be going at all and am just hoping the airlines will extend the trip change options so we can go somewhere else. We have $2000+ invested that is currently not refundable, but if I could cancel/change plans I would do so.

I am minimally concerned about becoming ill, as a young, healthy person, however I do not want to be a carrier and risk another person's life, or risk being part of the spread of this illness. Based on the spread/length of time the virus has carried on in China, I can't imagine things will be back to normal by May; BUT now that I've said it, here is to hoping I am wrong.

Posted by
16025 posts

That post by the Bergamo doctor makes for disturbing reading.

Posted by
26831 posts

It's heartbreaking. And it aligns with the concerns expressed in several things I've read that were written by US medical people. There's very real concern out there that we won't have the personnel and equipment needed to save everyone who could be saved. It's not just about the coronavirus. If a lot of resources have to be shifted to support those patients, what happens to the people with serious but unrelated problems?

I'm concerned that a lot of people may not be thinking beyond "I'm young and healthy." Think: How will you feel if you travel, return home, develop a mild case of COVID-19, and several weeks later read newspaper updates tracing a local cluster to a patient you know was you? What if someone dies?

Posted by
4535 posts

I know that is it is a very tough decision to make, but given that in just one day from your post, Italy has since announced a total nationwide lockdown, that seems to answer your question for you. Things are almost for sure going to get worse before they get better. How much worse and when they get better no one can say. But your financial exposure indicates you need to decide now and your trip is soon enough that it is unlikely to be much better then.

Also to consider is if you did show up and museums and sites were still closed, your money would be largely wasted as I expect you actually want to see things.

Add to that the possibility of quarantines on those coming from Italy if things get worse there.

Posted by
30 posts

Amy,

I am canceling my trip tonight (we leave March 21) and am looking at new dates to reschedule. I have been thinking of late May, but with the news of the whole country being shut down doesn't give me assurance that May is far enough out. If I'm you, I'd wait it out as long as you can. I was in a similar boat and I waited long enough to where now I'll be able to get most of my money back. Had I made a rash decision and canceled immediately, I'd be out of pocked a couple grand. So, if I'm you, I'd wait until two weeks before you leave to make any adjustments. Who knows, this whole thing could be blown over by April 3rd and with all the cancellations, you may have a country to yourself!

Posted by
15041 posts

All of Italy is in lockdown as of today. Nobody can move from city to city. Nobody knows about the situation from now till April, but right now all movements of people is banned. Although there is a lot of chaos going on.

Posted by
2111 posts

Amy,
You are asking for opinions (since none of us really knows for sure what will happen on/after April 24).

My opinion is to cancel, BUT (huge but) cancel at a time that you are likely to be out less money and talk with your tour provider to see if you can get a full refund under the circumstances (Italy on total lock down). Since you need to make a go/no go decision (you mention) this week, it is my guess that you have the remaining amount of your tour payment due this week? Would your tour provider allow some grace, such that you can make your full payment closer to the trip? They may be glad to have you as a potential customer vs. a cancel-now customer. But, if there is grace given to you, get it clearly in writing so you have that paper back-up, if needed for an insurance claim. I sincerely doubt that particular tour would go into sell-out mode by then....if anything, the tour provider may cancel the trip (if a group tour, and others fall out).

Check on what flexibility there is for your airline fare (if not included as part of your tour). Do you have trip insurance that will cover your non-refundable expenses?

If I were you, especially since it will be your first time to Europe, wait until things in Italy have had more a chance to return to the normal, colorful, welcoming place it typically is. Even if quarantines and lock downs. by some miracle, are over in Italy by 4/24, no telling what the situation will be in the USA and other countries at that time. The numbers are getting worse each day here.

So very sorry you have the stress of this decision ahead of you. Travel should be joyous, but these are some unusual, unexpected times.

Posted by
173 posts

you need to reschedule...Italy is in lockdown...hopefully the summer will help with the virus

Posted by
23 posts

It looks to me like fairly soon none of you will be reading threads about should " should I go or should I cancel " because the decision making process will have been taken away from these individuals. The decision will be made for you ---You won't be permitted to travel into these countries.

Posted by
26 posts

With the news of the lockdown, we are postponing our April 14th Italy trip. We were supposed to fly into Venice and out of Naples. We are hoping to reschedule for September but are still unsure if we want to fly into Venice in September. We just don't know what to think of the whole situation and what the Northern areas will be like then, hopefully better. We just feel that it's so unpredictable right now and not a lot will change by mid April. If you can push your trip out a few months, I would definitely consider it.

Posted by
26 posts

My wife and I were planning on flying into Venice on April 29th, departing Rome on May 9th. I called Delta yesterday to see what our options were and we were able to get a credit for the flights, which have to be used within 6 months. When I asked how far out Delta is allowing the credits, the representative said it was for all flights prior to May 31, so it would seem that Delta believes it may be safer to travel by then. Thanks to all who have contributed to this discussion. It seems that all we can do is wait and see what happens, and hope for the best.

Posted by
3 posts

UPDATE: I called and cancelled our trip yesterday morning. Thank you to everyone for your insight.

Posted by
2699 posts

Take what you read here and on other public forums with healthy skepticism - I think comments like by Alan from Folsom are borderline irresponsible. This particular virus is so new no hard-and-fast conclusions can be made.

I sure hope you are right.

Posted by
22 posts

British Airways announced late yesterday an extension of giving people the ability to rebook. Our trip dates are 4/14-29 - with uncertainty about what will/won't be open in Italy and logistics involving return flights (like having to come back through certain airports only, which don't include ours) I think we're going to pull the ripcord. Here's the details:

You’re travelling with us between 14 March to 31 May
You can cancel your booking and receive a voucher for the same value. Vouchers are valid for 12 months and can be used to any destination.
Your voucher can be used as part payment towards a future booking to any destination. It must be redeemed for travel on flights taken within 12 months of your original date of departure.

One never knows until you actually rebook - I've read that BA doesn't compensate for seat upgrades that have been paid. I can provide updates once I've been through it.