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Milan Malpensa Airport to Florence

Travel question for anyone familiar with Milan Malpensa Airport & Milan Centrale Train Station:
We (4 people) land at 6:45 AM One person needs to collect checked luggage (others will have carry on). We intend to get the Malpensa Express to the Milan Centrale Train Station and then get a High Speed Train to Florence. Malpensa Express run every 30 min at 10 after and 40 after the hour and it takes 50 min of travel

How long does it take to get through customs, luggage and to the Malpensa Express? - Is the 9:10 AM Malpensa Express to Milano Centrale realistic, or should we plan on the 9:40 AM?

From there we’ll take a high-speed train (w reserved tickets) to Florence. Is 11:10 AM realistic, or would 12:10 / 1:10 PM be smarter?
I’d rather avoid stress, but don’t want to be overly conservative either. I suppose we could by the BASIC fare that allows for rescheduling if we miss a train - not sure how hard that is or isn't or if one just gets on the next one and its "OK" (maybe if asked you just pay the difference in fare) ?

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I would just buy tickets once you get to Malpensa airport station. You cannot predict how long immigration will be, especially with the introduction of EES. Not to mention that you can't predict if your plane will land on time. You can download the Trenitalia app and speed up the purchase process.

Sorry, but the BASE fare is the walk-up fare, the most expensive. I think nobody in Trenitalia's century-old history has purchased a walk-up fare ticket in advance: it simply doesn't make sense.

In your case it's twice as pointless: you can reschedule only up to one hour after the departure of the booked train, then even those expensive tickets are wasted.

The Malpensa Express has no reserved seating and can't sell out. Like, I guess, airport shuttle-trains all over the world.