Likely hood of My two week trip to Italy in June 2020

Nobody knows.

No one has a crystal ball, but the number of cases, deaths, and general shape of the epidemiological curve should serve as a proxy for some common sense. Look at the Johns Hopkins website (link below) from day to day...it should give you some indication of how serious the situation is. I would not expect the country to loosen its restrictions while the cases and deaths increase (the trajectory this far has been constant increases - the goal is to flatten the curve).
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Probably Highly unlikely but I hope not

The epidemic started in Italy a couple of weeks ago (at least the officially confirmed cases). And you are hoping to go to Italy 3.5 months after that.
The epidemic started in Wuhan almost 3 months ago.
Would you visit Wuhan next month?

As to the hope that the epidemic will end with warm weather, I wouldn’t bet all my money on it. Cases are increasing also in the Philippines and in the Persian gulf, where temperatures are now in the 80s and 90s. We just have to wait and see, but right now it doesn’t look too promising.

I wonder if, even if they rebound, Italy will let US travelers in since we don’t seem to be taking it as seriously, therefore may not recover from the virus as quickly. Given the devastation they’re experiencing, I can’t imagine even tourist money would make the risk worth it to them.

Like others have alluded to, this is currently an evolving crisis. I can only give some history of the 2009 H1N1 virus. It lasted 16 months. This is different. It means the need for containment measures, testing, etc. We are scheduled to visit Italy in September. At this point we are hopeful but are cautious that it may not happen. There are now over 132,000 cases globally per Dr. Anthony Fauci.

I have started to unravel my mid-July vacation to Europe. Canceled hotels that I had booked with a Free cancellation policy. My group of anxious female travelers age 50-65, are not in any mindset to move forward with vacation planning. We will rethink our plans and airline ticket in June when we know more. I have family in the UK that I intend on also visiting in July. That may not happen either. I just don't see Europe recovery quickly. I would certainly be putting any summer vacation plans on hold right now.

Margaret

One thing to consider is allowing enough time for the Italian Tourist Industry to rehire staff, train replacement staff, daycare for the kids, do deferred maintenance, get their suppliers lined up, transportation reorganized, etc., etc.

I am slowly going through the process of cancelling my May 13 trip to Amsterdam, Belgium and Paris today. I have been to all three before (although I was looking forward to a week in Belgium), but it still stinks.

My bigger fear isn't that Europe won't be able to accept us - it's the we won't be able to go. I live in New York, and we currently have the most cases in the country. I truly believe it's not because we are sicker, but that we have tested more.

I work for a very large local government and I can tell you we are preparing contingency plans for this to last into early summer.

The good news: I can plan something else! Where to go next? Sicily? National Parks in the US? Southern France? Hike the Cotswolds Trail? It will all be there when this is over.

Italy's # of cases went up by 3,500 today -- largest single-day increase yet -- by about 1,000.

You are in good company. Our trip is a few weeks earlier. Fortunately, we are on a RS tour. This website is for those taking a 2020 tour https://www.ricksteves.com/tours/coronavirus-faq but can help you plan. They are following the CDC, WHO and the State Department. The site is updated frequently. If you see his tours departing after mid-June are cancelled, time to cancel yours. In the meantime, as one poster on another thread wisely did, start listing all the things you have reservations for and the cancellation dates so you can pull those triggers without incurring a penalty.

Another thing, and this is speculation on my part, is that by that time Europe may ban us. Think about it: Italy’s case rate is climbing but with the measures they are taking may begin to drop. We, on the other hand, are early in our epidemic. It would not surprise me if at some point the curves cross and Europe will not want us importing this virus.

We leave for our two-week trip on June 14th and come back July 2nd. Rome, Florence, Venice, and Lake Como. Booked three seats in business class on Lufthansa, pre-paid hotels - everything booked “non-refundable”, maybe even all the tours (Pristine Sistine, Food Tours, etc) too are non-refundable but to depressed to look at those right now. I did not buy any type of travel insurance.

I’m drinking more than I normally do as the handwriting is clearly on the wall. Just have not been able to accept the inevitable yet.

I did not buy any type of travel insurance.

Pandemic aside, making a whole trip with non-refundable reservations and not getting travel insurance is a really bad idea. A broken leg, ill family member, work emergency, etc.. would all leave you paying out thousands of dollars. ALWAYS get trip insurance when significant costs are non-refundable. I do hope things work out ok for you, but this is a good lesson for everyone all the time.

Douglas, I understand your point but would travel insurance cover a global pandemic like what we’re experiencing? From reading this forum it doesn’t seem like it does.

And, yes, while losing well over 10K is going to sting it’s more of I’ve been waiting 20+ years for this trip. I haven't had the money nor time to do so until now and it was to celebrate my daughters college graduation.

Walks of Italy has a 72 hour cancellation policy. Eating Italy Travestere Twilight tour has a 48 hour cancellation policy, so your food tour group probably has something similar.

Your air might be refunded if they aren’t flying due to the virus, so no sense in canceling early. Your hotels might let you reschedule. Don’t give up hope just yet that you are out that much money.

My trip is in September. For a little while I thought everything would be fine by then, but I’m really not sure anymore. Italy may be on the mend, but they won’t want us over there who are behind them.

gparvin--

I'm very sorry to hear about your situation. Maybe if things are not better by the time of your trip, you can get credits for later use? Or maybe flights will still be shut down and you can get a refund on the airfare?

Yes, if I have to cancel, I will be 100% refunded. I am thinking Italy late September to postpone to? Hopefully this nightmare virus will be controlled by then!

Douglas, I understand your point but would travel insurance cover a
global pandemic like what we’re experiencing? From reading this forum
it doesn’t seem like it does.

It does not necessarily cover the pandemic, although so many travel restrictions and government ordered lockdowns are occurring, that you would get refunds under those conditions.

Also, please re-read my post - you missed the reasons for ALWAYS getting travel insurance when you trip has significant non-refundable costs.