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Italy's goverment collapse..huh? Any impact for travelers?

Maybe some of you who live in Italy (or are Italian) can add your valuable perspective..........

Today's Wall Street Journal has a front-page article entitled: "Italy's Government Collapse Sets Up a Power Struggle." As I read the article TWICE, I THINK (operative word) this would have no immediate impact on tourists, (maybe) unlike when the US government shutdown (realizing shutdown is a different word from collapse) happened.

But, even so, it is always good for one traveling to a country to have a bit of an understanding of what governmental issues are brewing, just to be aware for any discussions with locals, etc.

Long way of saying, I would find it valuable for those who live in Italy to add a short perspective of current events.

Posted by
7053 posts

They've had 60+ governments since the end of WII, so I think the population is used to one lurch after another. That's probably why they're so disillusioned and cynical with politics to resolve anything and lead them forward (especially in the south and in Sicily, where the economy is in even worse shape than the more productive north). Competent governance does have an impact on tourism (things related to efficiency, cleanliness, etc. of the tourist infrastructure functions) but it's limited compared to what the locals have to deal with day in and day out (brain drain/ opportunity cost of young unemployed people, corruption and incompetence in delivery of city services, etc.)

Posted by
3522 posts

Italy uses the parliamentary form of government. A "government collapse" simply means the current prime minister no longer has the support of enough members of parliament to remain in power. The end result is they have elections and a new prime minister is selected by those winning the election. Every time they get a new prime minister is is a new "government".

It is not a government shutdown or anything to worry about. All parts of the government will continue to function as they always have in Italy. It does not mean the country is turning into a post apocalyptic area of anarchy.

Posted by
2149 posts

Agnus and Mark,
Thanks for the clarification. When I read the article, while it seemed things were in disarray, it did NOT seem like the country was on the verge of any operational disaster.
I remember years ago, when we had an Italian/US dual citizen post doc researcher leasing one of our rentals, I would get her perspective on Italy from time to time. When (I cannot remember his name) a man was elected, she simply stated (something along the line of): "The Italians shrug and say..."Okay, he (she listed the many issues) , but he has not murdered anyone."
Politics sure is frustrating in soo many countries, including our own. Yeesh.
Again, thanks for the perspective.

Posted by
1307 posts

As mentioned already, most European countries sensibly base their system on England's parliamentary approach. The collapse of a government is just the "executive" going - it might mean a change of policy, or an election, but it's not something catastrophic for the general running of the country. Spain's government collapsed last year. And following an election, the new government might collapse very soon even without an election. But I don't think anyone has suggested this is a problem for tourists. I suspect most tourists didn't notice. In Britain, a failed government has recently been replaced by a better, new one without any riots.

Posted by
1653 posts

Elections in 2018 gave a somewhat stuck parliament, with m5s (generic populists) holding 36% of seats, Lega (northern rightists/hard populists) 20% , PD (leftists) 18% and FI (Berlusconi) 16%. All parties have their internal problems, m5s and Lega are mainly a bunch of idiots, PDs are divided in incontrollable factions, Berlusconi is getting old. The government was set up by an alliance between m5s and Lega.

European elections in 2019 gave a completely different result, Lega 34%, Pd 23%, m5s 17%, FI 9%. In other words, the popularity indexes of m5s and Lega are inverted and this time Lega is much bigger than m5s. This is valid only for seats in the European parliament, but it is a big and official poll about how Italians think. So Lega has the interest to trash the present government, have the Italian parliament dissolved, run again the national elections, and with a bit of luck they could set up their own government (if you manage to get 40% you get the majority of parliament seats). Lega would like to get out of the euro system in order to be free to increase public spending, get rid of immigrants and generally speaking they are quite on the rightish side. So the Lega head asked for the government to resign.

What he had not realized, his votes are only virtual: he has not the majority in the Italian parliament. As soon as he asked for resignation, PD proposed an alliance to m5s that would lock Lega out of power. So yesterday the Lega head was deeply humiliated by the resignation speech of the head of government, that accused him openly of doing his own interests instead of the interest of the people. Now the Italian president has to find another head of government able to find a majority in the houses. The most probable outcome is a m5s-PD government, looking unlikely on paper, but it would be in their common interest to get some time and not to run the elections again. Even a "national unity" government m5s-PD-FI could be possible - it looks even more unlikely on paper, but who cares. If it turns out to be impossible to form a new government, the president will dissolve the houses and new elections will be held.

No immediate consequences to travelers till the end of this year. If election are held and the Lega wins, they could try their economic ideas and get the country into some chaos, but it is not as easy as it sounds. If a government can be formed, they first problem is that they have to find some money in the state budget to prevent a raise in VAT rates that would be automatic on January 1st, driving up all prices.

Posted by
2149 posts

Nick, thank you.
Lachera, thank you, also. Sounds like a mess that will not be resolved overnight, but we sure have enough of our own messes here that also will not be resolved overnight ;o

Posted by
1653 posts

Usually less people vote for European elections than for Italian ones, so it is easier to win the European. It looks like that politicians that go close to 40% at the European get mad and begin to believe they can do anything. Renzi (PD) got 41% at the European in 2015, he began to believe that the Italian people would follow him anywhere and got involved in a constitutional reform to be confirmed in a referendum. Alas, at the referendum much more people voted and he got a resounding defeat. They say that Giorgietti, the oldest Lega politician, hung a Renzi portrait in the office of Salvini, the Lega head, as a warning not to get too excited over a success. It did not work.

Posted by
15900 posts

It happens often in parliamentary systems, especially those with proportional representation where governments are formed by a coalition of more than one party. In a parliamentary system a government needs to have support of at least 50% of the parliament members. Whenever a party in the governing coalition decides to withdraw its support, you have a government crisis (or collapse). The President or the King will then have to explore the possibility of forming the government with a different parliament coalition or maybe with the same coalition but a different Prime Minister and Ministers. If that is not possible then the President will dissolve the parliament and call for new elections to elect a new parliament. As lachera explained, the League doubled its votes at the recent European elections, so they withdrew from the coalition because they would like to have new parliamentary elections to repeat their performance at the national elections and increase their parliament members. Whether the President will dissolve the Parliament and call new elections, or find a new coalition within the current Parliament remains to be seen. I doubt the current President (a Democrat) will want to dissolve Parliament now, knowing that in the current environment the extreme right parties are likely to win in an election. A more likely outcome is a coalition between the Democrats and the 5star Movement.
The 5 Star Movement is a sort of populist protest anti establishment movement, similar to Occupy Wall Street, founded by a comedian, whose motto is “Vaffanculo” (F....off!). The Vaffanculo Day (or V-Day) was a day when the Movement’s street rallies and protest marches took place in various Italian cities when the Movement was born.
The big red V in the word Movement, in their symbol, stands exactly for that iconic Italian epithet.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Star_Movement

Posted by
2149 posts

Lachera and Roberto,
Thank you. I have learned a lot today about Italy's governmental system. Thanks for your insights.

Posted by
32331 posts

Roberto,

It's hard to imagine Beppe Grillo as a comedian, as he always looks so angry whenever I see him on TV. I remember that word you mentioned from Eat Pray Love - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjxqd6v8JzI .

I wonder where Salvini will end up after the dust settles from this latest drama? Is there any chance that Berlusconi could be resurrected and return to government?

Posted by
15900 posts

Ken.
Beppe Grillo was actually very funny as a stand up comedian in the 1980s. He was then ostracized by the National television when in a TV show he publicly derided the then Prime Minister Craxi, accusing his party of theft and corruption. History was on his side though. Craxi and many of his Socialist party were indeed eventually indicted for corruption and embezzlement. Craxi himself had to escape to Tunisia where he later died, to escape the Italian Justice.

Even funnier, the Democrat politician Fassino in 2009 challenged Beppe Grillo (then just a a comedian leading protest rallies against establishment politicians on stage in the streets) to form his own party and see if he could get any votes (Fassino said ironically on TV). To which Beppe Grillo responded by actually doing so and 4 years later, in 2013 Grillo’s party was the second largest in Parliament, and now after the 2018 election, the absolute largest in the Italian Parliament.

What a vindication for the accountant turned comedian Grillo, ostracized by the most powerful politicians of the time for accusing them of corruption and returned on stage to challenge the system.

For sure he’s not an idiot as many detractors try to portray him. A few years ago he even predicted on stage the financial collapse of food giant Parmalat, where many managers were indicted of fraudulent bankruptcy. He accused the company of being a Ponzi scheme before anybody even suspected the incoming financial collapse.. After the collapse of Parmalat, the courts even subpoenaed Grillo about that prediction because they wanted to know how he could know. He told the judges that as an accountant, although a really bad accountant, he still knew how to read financial statements, and Parmalat financials had “fraud” clearly written all over theirs.

Regarding the current political situation, at this stage, if the president of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, a constitutional law professor member of the Democratic Party, dissolved Parliament and called for early election the two extreme right parties (the League and Brothers of Italy) could win hands down and reach the majority of Parliament members. I’m sure everything will be done by the Democrats to thwart that possibility, including allying themselves with Grillo’s populist 5Star Movement. Although I don’t know if that would help either party. Most people who voted for the MoVement switched to it because they hated the Democrats. I don’t think many will appreciate an alliance between the two.
I think Berlusconi is too old to occupy the Prime Minister’s Office but he might be a power player to determine the next governing coalition.