We are planning a trip to Italy next summer (either late June or sometime in July, due to our kids' school schedules). We know we're flying into Venice and out of Florence, but tickets aren't even for sale that far ahead yet.
However, when they do pop up later in the summer for our dates, would you go ahead and grab them while rates are low? It seems like prices only go up. Is there any downside to booking airfare as early as possible?
I just booked tickets to Scotland for May of 2023 on Delta, and got a good price, so I was happy. You might get a lower price later on or you might not, but I think that if you are happy with what you are seeing, you should book it.
Be prepared for a variety of answers. There are those who swear by buying as soon as tickets become available and those who would never buy any earlier than about 6 weeks. Everyone else falls somewhere in between......
The one downside that can occur to booking airfare as early as possible is that there are likely to be schedule changes over the course of the several months between purchasing and traveling. On the other hand, if you have a good price available, you have locked in that price.
It all gets down to your personal comfort level. I've purchased my airfare for a trip next April because there was a great sale, and I was able to get an upgraded class of service for the typical cost of coach. I'm comfortable with the idea that there may be a schedule change or two, but it is worth it to me to lock in that price.
I think one safe statement to make right now is that the airline industry is not operating at pre-covid levels and that things may change (hopefully will change) by next July.
Rates won't be the lowest that far in advance. You'll usually find the best prices for international airfare around 3-4 months before departure, in my experience. Some credit card redemption sites (ex. Capital One travel portal) have a feature where you can watch a route and they tell you when to book, based on best historical pricing, and even offer a price drop protection where they refund the difference if they tell you to book and the price goes goes down further.
Set up flight alerts on Google Flights for dates that would work for you. Over a few months you'll get an idea of what a "good" price for your flights are and when you find a price you like, book it.
I suspect that landing smoking deals on airfares is going to be a challenge. I use mileage/points to soften the blow. The important thing to keep in mind is that more than likely some aspect of the flights might change when you book far out in advance. My upcoming journey was booked about 7 months in advance. I've had 2 changes to the schedule so far.
It depends: what prices are you seeing for flights that far in advance if booked now vs what the going rates are for travel this summer? You have to have a sense of what is a good price, and that comes from watching them over time, as someone suggested google flights or one of the other flight data sources.
A recent take from some travel / flight guru indicated that waiting until closer to the travel dates - like 3 to 4 months out versus up to a year in advance - will probably yield the best prices. But since you already know you are flying in prime travel season in 2023, you may find you need to lock something up no later than early 2023.
The earliest I have ever booked flights for Europe was about 6 months in advance, back in 2016. But even then like now I faced multiple changes to the itinerary from the airline, and even though I got a "good" price on those tickets, I never again bought that far in advance. These days, there is far more turmoil and more changing of flights and connections than ever, and I would be tempted to wait until no sooner than 3 months out, but then again I will never fly over there during the heavy travel months again - I am a shoulder season / winter traveler now. If you are flying when everyone else wants to fly, well, you may have to book those flights way out.
Roubrat is right, set up fare alerts on Google Flights. Also use their charts and data to see what the trip "usually" costs. But as far as fares for a year away, how on earth can one know? I bet they don't even have that info in their systems yet, and if they do it's a made up placeholder fare. And what if your chosen airline goes under? They will take your money with them and you'll be way outside the credit card dispute/refund window.
I’m one of those who like to purchase as soon as I can to make it “real” and have a seat. Then I start watching the fares and call for an adjustment as they go down. I did this for my May 2022 trip. I bought them in December and they kept going down and I had them adjusted by April twice for almost half the cost. You only get ecredits, but we travel on a regular basis so just having e refits for us is not a problem. I just used them for a NYC trip fir the fall and still have some left. The only issue is when you have family members. The purchaser doesn’t just receive it, every member of the family gets their own.
See how much your flight would be if you were going next month (still in peak season), and then if you were going in October/December/April. Just to get a baseline. For this to work you need your days-of-week to line up. If you need to fly on a Friday it’s often more expensive than a Tuesday but if you have work or school concerns you might need specific days.
If you have alternatives, look at them too. For example, if you live between 2 airports or are willing to drive to a bigger/cheaper airport, check both.
Then just watch it and buy when it hits a level you like. If it’s a direct flight there’s less risk of schedule issues than if it’s a complicated itinerary with multiple flight changes (any one of the flights being cancelled or changed leads to a cascade messing up the entire journey). If there are major changes you can get the flights changed or a refund, but it’s just another hassle.
My experience is that buying early works for me. I like 7-9 months out. I like to travel in June and have seen and bought really good fares in October/November.
I would agree with those commenters that said buying further out seems to yield better prices for me. I've planned and bought tickets for trips to England and France and there were no last minute deals, or even 3-4 month out deals. I've just watched prices climb with my Google Flight alerts (there may have been some minor fluctuations, like saving $100 bucks on a flight, but nothing extreme, and as soon as they lowered, they raised again a day or so later).
Unfortunately, I can't just wait and buy tickets for whenever prices are cheapest. It does seem like waiting could yield deals if you're flexible on timing, but I'm not, due to kids' schedules, work, etc. Plus, we have to buy five at a pop for our family (yikes!) and we want to minimize layovers, length of flight, be able to select seats, etc.
However, I do appreciate the reminders that if I do buy really early things may change with flights! Thanks to everyone who weighed in... And I may not rush to buy tix as soon as they release them for next summer, but I will probably buy at least 6 mos out.
There's no guarantee of anything in this day and age
If you find tickets at a price you can live with, buy them and don't look back.
I would just suggest that you check to make sure the routing you prefer is actually flying this summer. I checked end of summer/early fall for flights last year to Greece and my preferred routing was reasonably priced. But when I checked, it wasn’t actually flying. And by time I bought a few months later, it was no longer listed as a flight.
The most recent "old wisdom" was 3-6 months out. These days YMMV. Prices are significantly higher than last year and even reaching back to 2019. I booked my September trip to Italy back in March, after following prices on Google Flights and then jumping on a deal I liked. I thought I'd missed the window for a decent price for the pointy end of the plane(s), so when I deal came up I grabbed it. Amazingly enough, the only schedule changes that have come through have been in my favor.
Watch prices to figure what the going rate is, then when you see a fare you can live with, take it and don't look back.
