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Current Gas Price in Italy

The Obvious: The recent rise in crude oil prices caused a shockingly sudden rise in Italian gas prices from around 1.75 to 1.95 Euro per liter over the last week. At a current exchange rate of approximately $1.17 per Euro, the 1.95 E/L price is equivalent to roughly $8.66 per US gallon. Thus the cost for a Rome to Florence trip (280 km) on the autostrada would cost about $60.00 one-way ($38.00 in gas (at 40 mpg) and $22.00 in tolls, Autogrill expense not included.)

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The sudden shocking rise was due to a change in fuel taxes. To balance the increase in oil prices, there was a rebate on fuel taxes that expired on May 2nd, triggering a raise in the final car gas price. Actually most of the rebate was kept on diesel fuel, much less on petrol. The new rebate expires on May 22nd, and this is likely to trigger another increase. Unfortunately, these rebates on fuels must be financed but cutting some other public expenses so they cannot go on indefinitely.

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Ouch.

Hopefully they will hammer out the opening of strait this week and there will be some relief coming. Oil futures retreated a bit on the news that a new 14 point end of war MOU is being discussed and this gives some reason for optimism.

Right now, the prediction markets and oil futures markets are projecting full opening sometime this summer. And if so, the impacts to European travel aside from gas prices will have been and will be fairly muted. My wife and I are finally getting around to booking a trip to Spain in the early fall. 50/50 or better the only things we’d might notice is some higher prices and maybe a few less flight options.

But we are also worrying about the other case— that this new framework for getting the strait open fails and the oil shock continues for several more months.

What happens then ? I dunno. I suppose instead of minimal cancellations of the less profitable flight routes there will be many. While major routes— like a Madrid to London— should still be pretty robust, secondary routes may be less so— say London to Sicily, that could be more challenging. Still I assume it is safe to assume cancellations will be well telegraphed so that on the ground scrambling will be unlikely.

Gas will be even more expensive but for most tourists this isn't a show stopper. Shocking yes! Some countries (Spain, I hope not!) may be forced into rationing schemes— things to limit demand. This can have unexpected impacts— though some may be positive such as smaller crowds.

In any case, we’re booking our trip this week even if there is a chance we will run into issues.

Electric cars?

Happy travels.