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book flight now or wait?

Apologies for posting an often asked question, but I would like some feedback on booking flights for travel to Italy. I am planning to fly from Vancouver to Venice, then home from Naples in early April. During the past week, the price has increased almost $400. I realize nobody has a crystal ball, but I will ask anyway: Any chance prices might drop if I wait? I am thinking that they will increase. I think there is more demand now that many Covid test requirements have been abolished.

Posted by
3985 posts

There is always a chance. You answered your own question; nobody has a crystal ball. There really is no way to know.

Posted by
23178 posts

It is an impossible question. I can make a prediction but, because I don't have a dog in this fight, the prediction is meaningless. It is a long time till April, prices go up and down depends on the airline's AI assessment of the situation. Personally would wait as I think the prices will drop. But --- who really knows????

Posted by
26840 posts

I've found that on some routes prices yo-yo. One I was watching back in 2019 went up and down by $500 at a time, every few days for about two weeks. You just never know. I certainly wouldn't rush to buy a ticket right after a $400 fare increase for a trip six months out. However, there is always a possibility the fare will continue moving upward; I cannot guarantee that it will not.

You really, really need to check the fare every day; otherwise, you may miss out on an enticing drop.

Posted by
2267 posts

I don't know if this applies to Air Canada (or any other airline for which fares are sold to Canadian residents), but...

In the past year+, since US airlines dropped change fees, I've used that rule change as a hedge against fare drops. If I buy the ticket from, say, American Airlines (even though the flights may be operated by another international carrier), I can monitor prices and rebook if the price drops, getting a credit for the difference. It's important that this be done with a local-to-you airline where you're likely to use that credit in the next year to some other destination.

Just a few weeks ago I rebooked my November trip to take advantage of a price drop, getting myself a $300 credit on American Airlines. I'll end up using that to book a springtime trip... somewhere.

Posted by
8094 posts

You might want to reconsider flying out of Naples. There are no direct flights to North America which means you'll have to take one of those 6:00 a.m. (very early) flights out to another European Gateway Airports. You'll the sit around until mid-day or early afternoon when flights west take off. It's bad enough to take a long flight--much less have to get up at 3:00 a.m. the morning you start.

What's funny is that there are no flights from Naples to Rome as the train service to there is so frequent and fast. Most travelers out of Naples would take the train to Rome and fly out of FCO to North America.

Posted by
220 posts

Great advice from David. Take the train from Naples to Rome, overnight at Rome airport hotel and then fly direct from Rome to Vancouver or somewhere in North America. There will be more options and hopefully lower prices flying from Rome than Naples.

Posted by
11033 posts

I would go through the booking process to the point I could see what seats were available to see how full the plane is on the flights you are contemplating.
The fuller the plane the less likely of a future reduction. If it is still mostly empty, the better the chance for some price reduction.

Have you checked the prices for different dates? Or are you locked in to specific dates?

It's your money so you get to place the bet.... good luck

Posted by
403 posts

Thanks for all your replies. I have been keeping my eye on a 1:30 pm flight departing from Naples with a connection in Munich. I had considered flying out of Rome but it's more expensive, especially with the added overnight hotel stay. I have a flight alert pinned on my flights and am checking daily in "incognito " mode in an attempt to avoid being tracked as it's been said that Big Brother knows what flight you have your eye on....but don't know how much truth there is in that.

Thanks again

Posted by
4324 posts

It's a well known urban legend that airline sites put cookies on your computer to know if you're a newbie or a returning sucker ... I mean customer.

If you're concerned, don't bother with incognito, just erase your history and cookies every day. I have an app on all my computers to do just that, I do it several times a day it's just good computer hygiene.

And guessing what airfares will be in 6 months, let alone what flights will be flying and what airlines will still be in business? Good luck with all that! Just use Google fare tracking for a few weeks and you'll see the trends, and if you're nervous buy a fully refundable ticket or at least one that you can change without penalty.

Posted by
4616 posts

I'd suggest setting up price alerts on Google Flights. You can track price trends and also view how prices differ day to day, often saving lots by changing your dates by a day or two. You don't purchase flights from Google flights, it's just a tracking tool. And as I'm sure you know, never buy flights from third party sellers.
Have a great trip!