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Air Fares Confusing

There seems to be no rhyme or reason to how airlines set there fares. I've been watching fares since June/July for RT from Boston to Rome next early June 2017, which hovered at $1600. pp for several months. Now yesterday for sh*** and giggles, I searched again and found RT non-stop with Alitalia for $714.00 pp. Since this was under my budget target of $800. pp, I snagged 4 seats, 2 aisles and 2 windows near front of plane. I've read not so good reviews for Alitalia, but an 8 hour economy flight on any airlines is no party. We'll do our partying in Italy, we just need to get there. The fares my go lower, but I'm happy with the times, seats and price. Rick was right, when you find them, snag them.

Posted by
11613 posts

Alitalia partners with Delta, Air France, and KLM, so you might be flying on any of those.

Posted by
715 posts

Most airlines piss off someone and you will get a bad review. I have had no issues with Alitalia.

Posted by
7054 posts

It only seems confusing because you're looking very far in advance (a year out is really far out). Airlines don't set their best fares that early in the game, else all the seats would be bought up and leave no room for people who don't book a year in advance (there are many more people who fall into that camp than the book-a-year-in-advance camp). So it's not surprising that you've seen the fares stay at a steady point and not move.

There seems to be no rhyme or reason to how airlines set there fares.

There actually is, but it's all done via sophisticated computer algorithms that handle lots of variables at once. It's not something a person can unravel. But there are some rules of thumb - if you live in a large and competitive airline market and you're very flexible about your travels, then you can get a good fare.

Posted by
8253 posts

....and you did the right thing, you had a target, you saw tickets below that target, you bought them. Now don't look back, don't second guess, even if you see something for less. Many keep waiting for that perfect deal and pass up any number of great deals, and wind up paying for it.

Posted by
11613 posts

Actually, on one Alitalia domestic flight, I could not choose a seat at booking and ended up in, you guessed it, center seat in row 22. It was very comfortable and spacious, wish my Delta Economy Comfort seat was as nice (9 hour flight).

Posted by
106 posts

Algorithms make my head spin. Just happy I was able to get fares under my budget. I won't look back or second guess anymore. I'll work on my travel plans and tours. Another posting in the near future I'm sure. Happy Travels to All.

Posted by
2124 posts

Here's my experience for what it's worth--

I had been trying to figure out those algorithms for a couple months now for an upcoming late February open-jaw--Chicago to Rome, then Naples to Chicago. But I had some caveats so I wasn't exactly 'flexible'. That time of year I wasn't going to get a nonstop either way, so I wanted a layover in Europe (not the US) of at least 90 minutes (less time means we may have to run for a plane) but not more than 3 hours. And didn't want Turkish Air, Alitalia or especially United, as a nonstop on the latter to Paris a year ago March were the tightest quarters I've ever experienced, just horrendous for 8 hours. I also wanted reasonable departure and arrival times, nothing too early in the morning or late at night.

So I plugged those filters into Kayak maybe 8 weeks ago and started watching a specific Lufthansa itinerary--have really enjoyed flying them in the past. Fares started out well over $1200 apiece, dropped to $1030 last week, and then fell again to $940 yesterday, so I jumped. Good thing, it's back up to $1030 this morning. It's Chicago O'Hare to Frankfurt, 3 hour layover, then to Rome Fiumicino. Return is Naples to O'Hare, connecting in Munich, 2 hour layover. No running, no early flights, all the same airline to minimize possible baggage loss. I'm satisfied, a decent price for the itinerary I wanted.

But...those with that flexibility and that wouldn't mind a 19 hour layover--each way--in Istanbul, could've gotten this open-jaw for about $550. Uh, no. Maybe in the next life... :)

Posted by
106 posts

I guess it's what you're willing to settle and be content with that matters most. I was just reading about those complicated algorithms. You guessed it, I'm a "Googler". It's actually quite fascinating. Airlines set so many seats at a certain price and once those are sold the next price and number of seats are distributed. I think, or that seems to be my understanding. I may be over simplifying. Here's a link: https://www.cheapair.com/blog/travel-tips/when-to-buy-international-flights/. Now if we only had a crystal ball that told us when the cheap seats are available.

Posted by
213 posts

I have read that if you do not close and clean out your cache after your check prices on an airline website that the next time you go in and enter the same ticket request information the "system" will recognize you and give you similar prices even if lower prices are available. I have treid using a different computer and email address and I do get lower fares sometimes.

Posted by
8371 posts

With the drop in tourism in Europe comes lower fares. And in places like Greece and Turkey, tourism is down 50% or more.
Airline analysts decide fares by supply and demand and they're now pretty good at controlling supply--seating available.

When the fares get in the $7__'s, you just grab'em and go.

Posted by
7054 posts

This will make your eyes glaze over but it explains how dynamic pricing and yield management works...it's all done with computers running the numbers constantly and it's not uncommon to see prices change, even by marginal amounts, even a few times a day. If you want to see this in practice, pick a Southwest flight between a single origin-destination pair and look at the price over some short time period (I picked Southwest because I find their pricing to be more transparent and easy to find and compare). Anyhow, you'll see how often the price for the same flight changes sometimes only in a matter of hours (it totally depends on when you look), and then sometimes reverts back for a period you would never guess or predict. For international travel, if you can snatch a fare in anywhere in the high $600s to $800s, I'd be quite happy with it.

By the way, there's nothing wrong with Turkish Air even with a long layover. I've made it work (I actually enjoy spending even a day or two in Istanbul and consider it a plus) and still paid less than an alternative flight. Even with a hotel cost, it was less. Like I said before, if you can afford to be flexible (which is a luxury sometimes when you're still in the work force), you can get a great fare. I have no loyalty to any airline, although I think the food on Turkish is the best.

http://mcafee.cc/Papers/PDF/DynamicPriceDiscrimination.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_pricing
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-agenda-dynamic-pricing-20160314-story.html

Posted by
334 posts

I flew out of Boston Non stop to Rome a few weeks ago on Alitalia but was booked on KLM. We are not impressed with the airline .Service is not very good. On our return flight which lasted I think almost 9 hrs. we saw them twice, once after almost 2 hrs with dinner and beverages and at landing. Not once did they come by and offered drinks all passengers had to get up and get their own. My ticket was cheap a little over 500$ RT. Personally if I would fly in June of 2017 I would have waited. Btw I fly to Germany often and I always buy my tickets in Germany. I save about 1000$ RT for 2 people.In Germany prices are regulated..