2026 Crowd expectations for Italy

My wife and I are planning on going there, so we're warning off people - - we want the place to ourselves!

Oh, you ask, "where are YOU going?'" If i tell you, you may want to go there. And I'd have less space for myself!

I hope you don't mind my humor.

You didn't say it but I assume you were avoiding crowds in Rome due to the celebration.
We watch / follow the YouTube channel RomeWise and would not say that the crowds looked TERRIBLE. I'd buy tickets in advance for entry.

Expect that there will be crowds, particularly at key sites that people feel are “must sees.” I’ve learned to go to the most crowded locations either first thing, right when it opens, or later in the afternoon. The only place in Italy where the crowds were more than I could deal with was the Vatican Museums.

Hah. We heard the caveats. And we still went in April of this year. At times in Florence, Rome, Ravello, Taormina...it was crowded, kind of a PITA, especially near The Vatican. Was it expected? Yes. Didn't stop us. We had a marvelous time.

Bottom line is that you'll have crowds in various places from April through October, and around Christmas. It was Jubilee in 2025, and I fully expect at least the same volume of crowds in 2026. Americans & Asians are spending much money in Europe, period.

It will depend on where in Italy and when.

Florence, a city in Tuscany, in July: crowded and hot
La California, a town also in Tuscany, in January: not crowded and not hot (cool, like in California USA)
Casa del Diavolo (Devil's House), a town in Umbria, in January: not crowded but maybe hot and on fire (the devil likes it hot)

We did a great Road Scholar tour called The Hidden Villages of Tuscany and Umbria the early Spring of 2025 and it was great.
Yes, there were crowds, especially at place like Assisi and San Gimignano. but still wonderful.
We visited several small cities and towns in those areas, crowds were manageable. Not sure how it was in large cities like Rome and Florence.

I'm planning to spend two weeks in Lucca in late September/early October 2026. It's been very very hard finding lodging inside the wall, which is surprising. But then I found that there is a major festival called Lucca Comics and Games happening about that time. So I expect the city to be crowded.

How Many Tourists Visit Italy Each Year?

2019 (record year): ~65M international visitors.
2020–2021: Fell below 30M due to the pandemic.
2022: 50.2M arrivals.
2023: 61.6M arrivals.
2024: 67M arrivals.
2025 (forecast): Expected ~70M international visitors
https://hotelagio.com/italy-tourism-statistics/

Just one source, but even without the Jubilee Year, the numbers were growing, so suspect in 2026 Italy will be " well attended ".

Short of a pandemic type event or world wide economic collapse, the number of visitors is unlikely to decrease by any meaningful amount.
Just go, and realize you are as much a part of the 'problem' as everyone else you encounter

Just go, and realize that as crowded as it might be, it'll just get worse as the years go by. You'll look back fondly at the relatively-thin crowds of 2026 (by comparison to whatever the year is), and as the years go by you'll smile, wax nostalgic, and say you are glad you got to experience the place back in the good old days before it got really crowded.

I feel strongly that your experience with crowds depends a lot on your approach to the trip. If you plan to visit the big 3 only ( Rome, Florence, Venice) and it is important to you to see the big sites ( Coliseum, Vatican, Trevi fountain for example in Rome). then unless you go in the winter I think you will experience crowds. I would suggest putting some of your planning into less visited sites and less visited towns. And if you are walking and see a huge crowd at the Spanish steps to your right, turn left instead and you can probably find a quiet street and some other Roman steps!

Go! It’s not going to get better. We went this past spring on RS Village Italy tour. We were there over Easter, and May 1. We avoided Rome and Florence as we had been before on previous trips. Assisi was a zoo, but Siena and Orvieto were relatively calm. We were in Padua the day the pope died and I am assuming it was much busier than usual, but still not crowded.

As Lisa suggested, try and make a mix of big and small locations depending upon your interests. We spent four nights in Caserta as a base taking trains to Naples and visiting Pompeii and Herculaneum.

If you see crowds on the Spanish steps on the right and turn left, you will be on via dei Condotti, the most famous upscale pedestrianized street in Rome full of high end fashion stores (Prada, Giorgio Armani, Ferragamo, Bulgari, etc.). It will be just as crowded, but at least you can enjoy some serious fancy shopping.

The above post from Lisa of Alberta has it exactly right. I would add that if you use popular sources of travel information in English, you are guaranteeing that you'll visit the most crowded attractions. Follow your own interests and find specialized sources of information. Create your own itinerary on Etruscans or Jewish Italian history or castles or regional desserts or Renaissance military architecture or whatever.

Roberto : " If you see crowds on the Spanish steps on the right and turn left, you will be on via dei Condotti," Yes True! But then we found Via dei Coronari ( I think) that was a lovely quiet street with antique stores.

We are going in mid January specifically to avoid crowds.

Thank you all for your replies
I always enjoy reading different peoples’ travel experiences and perspectives.

How crowded do you think Milan, Lake Como & the Dolomites might be in mid October of 2026? Thanks.

Happy New Year, fellow travel lovers. My husband and I already have a two-week stay in Rome planned for April (post-Easter), followed by two weeks in a smaller, off-the-beaten-path destination. We’ve visited Rome twice before for short stays, and this trip was intentionally designed to slow down and experience the city beyond the usual highlights. We’re planning to stay in Balduina as a less touristy home base and focus on neighborhoods, smaller museums, and churches we’ve missed.

After reading so much about the number of tourists expected, I’m wondering whether—given that approach—you all think Rome in April is still a reasonable choice, or whether you would genuinely advise changing course. I’m also concerned about crowding on public transport and in public spaces, and about contributing to the overtourism issues you raised. I’d really appreciate your perspective if you’re willing to share.

We were just there during the week between Christmas and Jan 3rd. It was very busy, but really only on the main routes to the main places--public transportation was a mad-house, the number of people squeezing on a bus together was LOL. We've been before--so we did not plan to go to the Vatican, Colosseum, or any museums. Instead, we stayed in the square where Julius Caesar was assassinated (easily walkable to Pantheon, Campo di Fiore, Piazza Navona, Trastevere), went to the Great Arias concert at the Palazzo Poli (building upon which Trevi Fountain is built), booked a Domus Aurea tour (limited numbers per day), did a mosaic class (which we loved) and just hung out and ate great food. We even went to the party in Circus Maximus on NYE with over 70,000 friends, it was an event to remember. But, the most important thing that we've learned about cities like Rome, is that the main Google-directed routes to places are insanely crowded--but whenever possible, go one street over from that, and you can literally be alone. So, whenever possible, we moved in parallels and cut through squares, and often we were able to stroll and enjoy just being there. Like the others say: book well ahead any visits you wish to make to major sites so that you can be the first group that enters the doors. Consider throwing money at the problem by taking taxi/Uber to basically any location more than 1 KM instead of walking there--that way you arrive fresh (and didn't have to force your way through crowds which greatly increases your walking ETA)--we got dropped at the front door basically, and comparatively-speaking traffic was not a problem. Then, we would walk a new route home afterwards. I agree, unless a world-shaking event occurs (God forbid), there will never be less people. The best you can do is choose the least-busy time that will fit into your personal schedule, and plan/book ahead as much as possible--and of course, if you can afford to throw money at problems, go ahead--it's worth it!

To tell the truth, I would not be overly concerned about the crowds. If you want to visit some place, the moment is now. The more you wait, the more you risk the political situation getting worst. There are already several places I would not visit for political reasons, the more we wait the more they get. As for crowds, the best moment to visit Italy is during the winter; days are short and climate is cold, but at least there aren't crowds and it is not hot as hell.