Mack seems to have been exceedingly unfortunate in his checked bag experiences. I’m sure that somewhere one can find the statistics on this issue, and that the chances are really low that your bag won’t arrive with you or by the next morning. For what it’s worth, I’ve been traveling to Europe since the early ‘70’s, and only a couple of times even had to wait until the next morning for my luggage. To prepare for that remote possibility, I pack toiletries, essential meds, something to sleep in, a change or 2 of underwear, and a change of clothes into my carry-on. And don’t forget to include your house and car keys on your return trip.
The airlines used to provide an emergency pack for travelers whose bags didn’t arrive. I don’t know if that’s still true.*
To get back to the original question, I’d go with the 2.5 hour layover. Since there is a later flight, you’ll have that safety net.
*Here’s a chuckle for everyone. My brother and sil once arrived in Paris, but their bags did not. Air France’s emergency packs consisted of oversize T shirts to sleep in, dental kits, several kinds of perfume, and a package of condoms. Oh those French!