When to book flights?

I can assure you of one thing....... you will get multiple, conflicting answers to this question. Why? Because there is no "magic" time.

You have already made a great first step in monitoring flights and prices. Soon you will have a sense of "typical cost" and a "lower cost" rate. When you find a price that seems to be "lower cost", fits your schedule and your willingness to commit funds, then that is the time to purchase.

I make my reservations as soon as they are available (most airlines allow booking about 11 months in advance). I literally check for reservation availability on a daily basis although you can explore dates a bit and see the algorithm they are using. We use business class, and the fares do nothing but rise from that day on. By the last month or so, they have typically gone up by 2.,5x. I go with "changeable" but "non cancellable" tickets so I don't lose my investment if plans change. When the airline makes a flight change, you generally have an option to get a full refund, although counting on that is a little risky. For our 2022 trip my early business tickets cost less than extra legroom coach 30 days before departure. Coach tickets do sometimes fluctuate downwards, but the old "two weeks" guidance is just wrong, IMHO.

Our May 2023 is completely booked and makes me happy, except I hope to improve on my car rental as prices fall, and lodging is all cancellable, so I always look after the new year for newly open booking calendars for alternative spots and I sometimes tune the daily itinerary as I read reviews and trip reports.

Ask Carol said keep monitoring and when you do book, don't look back to see if prices have gone done. Accept what you got, pay for them and then start saving for other expenses, keep on this site for suggestions.

Appreciate the replies! I should note that I have booked all lodging and car rental, all with free cancelation. If I can book flights with changeable travel times, that may be my bet. I should also add that I'm flying in to Dublin and flying out of Shannon, for logistical reasons.

What Carol said. But to add, research the airlines and see what their change/cancel policies are. I decide on price and how generous the airline is if needing to cancel or reschedule. I fly economy.

Many airlines have removed change fees. Some (Delta) will allow you to change your dates, and if the price is lower, receive an e-credit for the difference. Might not be the same as a cash refund, but still much better then pre-covid.

I've attached a link to Points Guy that goes over some of the airline policies.
https://thepointsguy.com/guide/airline-change-and-cancellation-policies/

Thank you! I'll definitely follow up on that link!

Thanks to all for the thoughtful replies! After doing a little cursory research, it seems like the rule of thumb is: booking the lowest basic economy fare gives you no real flexibility. For my trip, United had the lowest fare but allowed no changes. However, for about $200 more, you can get a fully refundable fare. Even with that, it's still cheaper than Delta. Granted with United you'd have cancel and rebook if plans change. I rarely travel so don't have any points to use. I also haven't seen anything yet about the fees incurred by flight changes with other types of economy United flights so there's that. Thanks for helping me with my research!

All good points! I hadn't really thought about seat choice. If I book this far out, I definitely want some flexibility. I'm willing to pay for that. Flying these days is challenging enough as it is. Thanks!

Just came out...
https://blog.google/products/travel/how-to-find-the-best-deal-on-your-next-flight/

Thanks for the link! Another challenge with my trip is that I live in a rural area with only a regional airport. So add additional airfare just to get to a city that has transatlantic flights.

I fly out of a regional airport and most major (maybe all) carriers will include the feeder flight into one booking. Even Icelandair, who doesn't show smaller airports on their website, will do it on a phone booking. Making separate arrangements will create a risk of busting your whole trip if the puddle jumper is delayed, etc. They won't do the same for Ryanair or Aran Air, though.

I've factored in layovers since I'll be meeting up with my traveling companion in another city. We'll book our international flight from there. Thanks!

I think you're making a mistake to not let your international carrier provide the entire booking. Not only will it "protect" you in case of missed flights, but it will probably be cheaper. If you local airline is Allegiant or other tiny carrier, you may not have the option. United Express, Horizon, Alaska etc. should not be a problem. If your international flight is something you're finding in the travel section of the newspaper from some third party agency, again, probably need to do it your way. I'll shut up now.

United Express flies out of here. So even if there's a day or two layover, I can still get a deal? I'm going to look into that. Thanks!

We're not "frequent flyers". Our last international trip was five years ago. We booked our 50th Anniversary plane tickets as soon as they were available, ensuring that we would be able to have a better choice of seats. Unfortunately, that was for the year 2020 and we didn't book refundable tickets, so eCredits were issued. For 2022, we did book Refundable tickets 11 months out and saved quite a bit on the international tickets, as opposed to what they cost six months from trip date. This summer, we decided to wait one more year until Covid and the airline situation improved. Our Refundable tickets were partially refunded for the amount above the eCredits. I appreciate the airlines flexibility, as well as Rick Steves Tours, as it's been like a roller coaster with prices and positivity rates! I wish I'd been wise enough to book refundable from the beginning. Have a great trip to Ireland!

Yeah, I'm leaning towards paying a little more and get refundable tickets for the reasons you outlined. Who knows what can happen? Covid seems to be receding but as soon as I say that....
Airfares seem fairly reasonable right now and I've managed to book all lodging and rental car with free cancelations. I kind of doubt airfares will drop that much by next year. Demand is still quite high.
On a side note: Everyone says to book direct but so far I've saved quite a bit booking through Expedia and Booking.com. Online quotes for airlines direct are $200 more than 3rd party booking sites. Am I missing something?