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Snow on Christmas in Germany - a probability view for white Christmas based on long-term average

I found an interesting article which provides an illustration based on a Germany map with probabilities for snow on Christmas based on long-term averages.

Important facts:

  1. In Germany there is no place with a snow guarantee, maybe only exception is Zugspitze.
  2. The probability for snow increases with the altitude of a travel destination.
  3. The weather forecast horizon in Germany is max. between 5 and 7 days, often shorter around 3-5 days.
  4. The last white Christmas all over Germany was in 2010, and before that it was in 1981. So it is becoming an increasingly rare event anyway.

Link to full article in German language:
https://www.tagesschau.de/wetter/wetterthema/whitechristmas-100.html

EDIT: I like to link a NDR article where users can enter a German zip code (entry field "PLZ", 5 digits) and see snow heights in cm from next weather station on Christmas days in the past:
https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/winter-daten-im-check-schlechte-chancen-fuer-weisse-weihnachten,weisseweihnacht120.html

Tip: when you plan to travel Germany by rental car in winter always book winter tires. They are mandatory by law in winter road conditions, i.e., black ice, snow, slush, ice, or frost. So, even when only expecting low temperatures (rule of thumb thumb: lower than 7° C) you may only drive with winter tires (details).

Happy travels.

Posted by
4274 posts

Actually the Auto Europe page provides wrong information: Germany has a situation / weather condition based duty for winter tires - not a date-based.

Details on law and duty by ADAC (a German AAA) in the third link of my post.

Posted by
7848 posts

@Mardee, do you all use "snow" tires in the frozen north? I'm just curious because many years ago, I recall my dad (we lived in suburban St. Paul) switching in "snow" tires for winter. But, here in the metro, most people have been using "all weather tires" for years. I do recall that "snow" tires were really bad on ice or slick surfaces. I was interested to read that Germans would be using winter tires when they so rarely have snow, at least at the lower elevations.

I have a Subaru. We were sold when we saw many folks in Colorado using them. I personally think that its more about the car and AWD. We had a decent amount of snow yesterday and places to go. The Subaru with all weather tires handled it like a champ.

Posted by
6847 posts

Jules, I would double check your source for your conclusions about winter vs all weather tires. And I would suggest that the Germans would not publish and enforce those rules without proper scientific data to back them up. Up here in the even more frozen North, winter tires go on in November and come off around the end of March - or later in the Northern parts of the province.

Where we lived in Germany, not only did we need winter tires (and I mean we NEEDED them), we also had to carry chains because of the area we lived in. We had a white Christmas every year that we were there.

Posted by
4274 posts

In 2023 German ADAC wrote an article about winter tires versus full year tires (link). And Germans really like tests about these. An actual test of winter tires show the difference of the various manufacturers; the stopping way on wet streets can decide about accident or not, or even more.

Nearly all corporate car fleets (a lot in Germany) do summer and winter tires. Some companies save on these by having winter tires indexed to 190 or 210 km/h only. Then you see the alpha managers restrained in their expensive cars when you pass them on Autobahn. Some already learned to laugh about it. I drive winter (and summer) tires with indexes matching to my car. I have chosen one of the top three in the stopping way test.

I was caring early this year for change to winter tires because the last years there was always a first wave of sub zero with snow in the second half of November. Also this year but in the meantime the temperatures are back above zero in the North.

4WD is nice for speeding up but comparable bad when braking on snow and ice. I remember trying 4WD the first time in my life in the 90s with this short Toyota RAV4 on snow in front of Olympic Stadium in Berlin. I really enjoyed it and learned to be careful to stop it.

CJean, may you share the information where you lived in Germany? Community ID on car registration plate would be detailed enough. Just curious.

Posted by
7848 posts

@CJean, I have lived in Minnesota all my life. My dad was a teacher and taught drivers' training in the summers. In Minnesota, we do get lots of snow. Granted, more in the past, and more farther north in the state. People in the metro used to switch out for snow tires in the winter. I do not know anyone now that swaps out now. Snow tires were a problem on ice and winter mix, and they wear quickly on bare pavement. I was reporting what we do in the metropolitan area of Minnesota, obviously, I would have no idea what you do in Canada, though I've spent a lot of time in the mountainous areas of Colorado. We do get our snow and ice, but even in the winter, in our area, we are driving more often on bare pavement. I'm quite certain you have different conditions in Canada, and as I was curious about Duluth, I was wondering what Mardee does.

AWD is different from 4WD. I've never had a truck so never have used 4WD. RWD, was horrible on snow, FWD, was an improvement, but wow, AWD is great on snow and especially ice. When one of my daughters was in school near Des Moines, Iowa, I was driving back and forth in a day for concerts, often in blizzards or at least on icy roads. During the nights, it was often just me and the truckers on the interstate. I've had various cars over the years. I've spun out a few times. Never in the AWD Subaru with all weather tires. There's a reason why they drive them in the mountains of Colorado.

Nowhere in the U.S. are "snow" tires required. Some places in Colorado and Utah have traction laws that prohibit "summer" tires. Note not "All Weather Tires". "All Weather Tires", are more recent, so when I was a child, there would have been more of a need to switch out to snow tires in the winter, and statistically, we had more snow in the 60s and 70s.

Mark had been commenting about winter in Germany and the fact that snow isn't a "guarantee" in many areas. So, I was interested in his comments about tires because he seemed to be implying that they were often driving on bare pavement. I am well aware that Germany is known for car performance.

Posted by
6847 posts

Mark, we lived in Oberammergau, and were also frequently driving to towns within the Alps in winter. There was one road in particular that we sometimes needed to put on the chains. The stretch of the 23 between Oberau and Ettal could get bad. Cant help with the registration plate- because of my husband's government job, our car had Canadian plates.

Posted by
4274 posts

Thanks CJean, I can really imagine that you needed winter tires and also sometimes chains there.

jules m: my view about "bare pavement" in Germany, maybe also valid for other countries.
Depending on region there are weeks without ice and snow on pavement but there are regular warnings about four effects in winter:

  • black ice when rain hits frozen ground
  • frozen morning dew
  • icy or slippery conditions on bridges and at other unprotected street parts
  • strong rain falls

All these within a day changing effects are addressed by winter tires as well as wet grip class, rolling resistance and external rolling noise. Consumers are informed about these by a standardized EU tire label which can be seen and is explained in this EU Commission article with video.

The German weather service DWD has three waning levels for each frost and snow conditions. Travelers can inform themselves on this DWD weather warning overview based on a map. Of course these warnings are automatically broadcasted also to general warning apps such as Nina.

Posted by
7848 posts

Interesting, Mark. I would say our conditions are quite similar. Where we live there is more of a consistent issue with black ice, freezing bridge decks, and winter mix vs. actual "snow". We don't get actual "dumps" that often. And we have the capability to clear roads and highways quickly. If it is at all humid or above freezing during the day, there will be issue with black ice and the bridge decks in the evening when temps drop. It could be there is a difference between your types of tires than ours. We find that our AWD Subaru with all weather tires has been better than any other vehicle/tires in those types of conditions. I can tell by watching on the highways, in our neighborhood and parking lots when I'm out and about, Subarus are becoming more and more common. My husband is very diligent with watching our tires for wear and just had the Subaru in for tires. He was told that the tires we currently have and the ones he replaced them with are the best for our car in the type of conditions we get.

We currently have three cars for the two of us. We laugh that we have a "wardrobe" of cars. Some days given a big snow fall or varying weather conditions, we'll discuss who needs what car for their conditions. Our minivan and previously a Mazda had such low clearance that sometimes we struggled to get out of our neighborhood which is just about the last in the city to get plowed. It just depends on the conditions and what is typical.

Not my intention to turn this into a debate. It is just always interesting what preferences are in different parts of the world. And, also, wanted to assure CJean that tire choice has been well discussed in my area and we know what we are doing. Recently, someone was seeking our help when their California child was relocating to Minneapolis area and wanted to know how to handle winter weather. At that time, I again double checked with folks about car tires for winter. A bigger issue in this case, was winter parking in St. Paul and Minneapolis.

Posted by
4274 posts

I like the exchange of different cultures and experiences.

One funny thing I missed sharing: Bavaria is known for some good snow chances. And, of all things Bavarian car manufacturer BMW had the reputation between 70s and 2000s to have the worst winter condition cars because they had so / too much power on the rear axis.

I remember sliding around Berlin's Victory Column in early 90s snowy winter days with a 323i.

Posted by
10856 posts

Jules, even up here in Duluth, I don't use snow tires or chains. I've never had any problems and I'm in a rural area which means some of the roads can sit for a little while without snow plows.

Like you, I have the all-weather tires (Michelin from Costco) and I also have a Subaru Outback with all-wheel drive, and that stands me in good stead during the winter here. It really makes a world of difference. I would never have a car without AWD in a snowy climate. And I will never give up my Subaru in Minnesota. 😊 They're so good on snow and ice as you know.

I do find it surprising that Germany mandates snow tires. But they also drive a lot faster than people do in Minnesota so maybe that's partly the case? I could also see them being needed in the mountainous areas. When I lived in Colorado many many years ago, we used to get really bad snowstorms but the snow was so much drier there that it was much easier to drive in than wet snow and ice.

Posted by
7848 posts

@uwe, looks lovely. I recall Fussen as just gorgeous. Without the mountains, your view is about the same as mine. We are probably colder, currently 15F(-9.5C) and forecasted low of -1F(-18.3C). Snow I don't mind. Frigid, get the fireplace going! No question of a white Christmas this year.

Posted by
4274 posts

In general a good idea to look into webcams for checking conditions at another place. I recommend windy.com, also for other European countries.

Posted by
4274 posts

I added a website to the original post at the top which shows the snow heights on Christmas days in the past after entering a German zip code.

I found it too useful to hide it in the whole discussion.