price mark-up for German hotels in 2020

Looking at the pice of a tour will not give you any idea of what the price of the hotels is unless the tour operator provides that level of breakout, and they don't. There are many things that go into the price of a tour.

Yes, the prices do depend on what is going on. If you pick the time of year where everyone will be booking hotel rooms, the rooms will be at a higher price than in other times of the year. Hotels want to make money too. Also, it is still over a year before your trip. Most hotels, with a few exceptions like the ones near the Oberammergau event, will have only place holder amounts if anything for prices that far out.

You are looking too early. That 6000 could be to manipulate worry warts. Why do you need to make a decision so early?
Wait til black friday cyber monday. Everyone has sales during the xmas holiday shopping season if they want to be competitive.
I never see sales for travel to occur more than a year now. I only see convention business contract hotel spots far in advance.

During Oktoberfest 2018 there were over 60% higher hotel prices in Munich in average. This means that hotels in center area likely have double or even higher prices up to triple. The top was 365% higher. Prices between 200 and 300 EUR per double bedroom are "normal" during this event. Source.

Higher prices visitors can only expect during bauma fair in April in Munich.

I want to address the idea that you can compare the cost of traveling independently with the cost of taking a tour as a direct comparison between hotel prices, etc. It is like comparing the cost of apples and oranges. They are both fruit, but the similarities end there. I travel both independently and on Rick Steves Tours. They are two very different experiences.

It is really all about what value you are receiving for your money and what your personal travel goals are. I like the ability to make my own itinerary and hotel choices when I travel independently. However, when I take a tour I find incredible added value in the expertise of the guides and unusual experiences that I would be very unlikely to arrange on my own. There is a definite value to sharing travel experiences with a group of congenial fellow travelers.

You need to determine what sort of travel experience you are looking for and what are your “must see” places or experiences. While money does matter, it would be a mistake to makes your decision solely on perception of cost. You are investing a great deal of money in this trip either way. Make sure you are purchasing the trip that is right for you.

Prices are high for hotels only in the cities where these events are happening. Oktoberfest in Munich does not affect prices in Berlin or Cologne or Frankfurt.
Other events will increase prices in those cities. Trade Fairs, Marathons, or a big international event. Look at each cities websites to see what is happening there, like a big fest. Check the category Messe to find trade fairs. The book fair in Frankfurt in Oct. will cause prices to rise not only in the city but surrounding towns too. The same thing will happen in Dusseldorf or Berlin too.

Have you compared the tour prices for dates other than September/October? I don't think hotels are the driver of tour costs but you can rule that out by comparing prices of the same tour company (and same tour) across various dates. I assume the tours you're looking at are spread around geographically and not at one location, which would tend to average out hotel rates across all locations. Feel free to call up any tour agency and ask about their pricing structure (although they will not break out all the components for you but maybe they could give you more insight or rule out some options).

Of course you could travel for less than a tour, that's a given (most of my trips are independent trips, so I know). With a tour, the value is mostly in the expertise of the guides and those labor costs are what people are paying for. Why do you need to decide a whole year in advance? There is plenty of time to do research.

Thanks everyone. I have some work requirements and funding possibilties that require early decision-making, but it looks like this is just too early. I found one tour that was very specialized related to my work and they have an early bird registration deadline at the end of this month. I was surprised to hear that independent travel is cheaper than tours, as it's been a while since I travelled outside of North America and I've found the reverse to be true on this continent, especially for solo travel. Thanks for all the tips!

Of course, Rick Steves tours are for sale now for travel next fall. Perhaps one covers your area of interest: https://www.ricksteves.com/tours/germany.

The apples and oranges issue when comparing prices is very important.

For instance, which hotels is the tour using? Often they get a better price on the hotel than you will on your own due to the volume of their booking. However, do you want or need that hotel, or can you stay on your own in a cheaper place? Note that less expensive tours often use hotels outside the city centers (sometimes a little outside, sometimes a lot).

A tour usually includes the services of a full time guide. That would be expensive to duplicate on your own, but again, you may want or need guiding only at certain times or for certain locations and sights.

Then there's the factor of how different the experience of a tour is compared to going on your own. For instance, many tours (but not Rick Steves) transfer you from airport to your hotel at the trip's start, take your luggage from your room to the next hotel during each stop (you just leave the bag outside, or on the "lesser tours" take it down to the bus), and transfer you from your last hotel to the airport at the trip's end. For some people, asking them to handle these things on their own is akin to ruining their trip, or is makes them very fearful and anxious. These people would not like independent travel.

Similarly, a coworker didn't like traveling on her own because she and her husband are the classic "where do you want to eat dinner?" "I don't know - where do you want to eat?" people. So they can spend their days in indecision unless they have someone taking the reins. As she put it, she hated "playing tour guide" every day. I, on the other hand, love it, and don't mind missing some things for the flexibility I have by going on my own.

It's not that one is better than the other, but they are very different, and cost is only part of the equation.

Have you been on a tour before? Do you have the time/ability/energy to plan independent travel? Personally, one escorted tour was enough for me but that is me.

Keep in mind that the price of a tour includes more than hotels; you get many meals, transportation, entry fees to some attractions, and the services of guides.

As for the hotel prices listed in RS guidebooks, we have found they are not always accurate. And for Munich hotels, prices will be definitely be higher during Oktoberfest.

You don’t talk about your intended destinations. As put forward by Ms Jo, Oktoberfest and the Oberammergau play prices do no affect prices elsewhere in Germany, unless very close by. No bragging rights but here’s a rough breakdown for my upcoming trip of 22 nights, flying into Frankfurt from Toronto. Return flights, $605 Canadian each (Aer Lingus): car rental (zero deductible, Autoeurope.ca) - $789: two apartments, different locations (on the Mosel near Bernkastel, the other in Ladenburg) - $2100 total for the two. For the two of us, that’s cheaper and more time spent on the ground than your tour. Then again, I don’t know what you want to see and if Oktoberfest/Oberammergau are definitely in your plans.

If Oktoberfest and/or Oberammergau are on your ‘must see' list, research small towns easily accessible to both and to other locations of interest. Include pensions, zimmer freis and apartments, which are likely to provide more value for our poor Canadian dollar. Track flight prices as soon as allowable for your intended dates. I had hoped to fly into Munich or Vienna tihs year, the cheapest flight I could find was about $1180, including a checked-in suitcase.