How/when to return to Germany

I was just talking to someone about my last trip in 2017 to Berlin, Bremen, Hamburg and Lubeck today

Nobody really knows but I'm optimistic. Save your money, and be ready to go when we know that is all you can do.

Gary Mc, you are in a catagory that is among the most devastated by this thing. I'm not far behind you. Making things hard on those who have reached that point in their life when you should be out enjoying is among the cruelest aspects of the disease. Life is full of risk and anyone who expects less is not being honest with themselves; so my greatest hope is that this one is mitigated to a point where it is just one more in the pack with the others ... soon!

"Life is full of risk and anyone who expects less is not being honest with themselves..."

Very true, especially for our age group.

If you've made it to 65, as I've done, your chances of perishing on account of Covid-19 are much higher than others'. The 65+ group is small - only 16% of our population - but it owns 73% of all Covid deaths.

But does that mean we are doomed? The data also say that if you DO die after 65 (as many of us will,) Covid-19 is very likely NOT the culprit. So far this year, 1,554,000 people 65 and older have died. Of those, the Covid death total is about 167,000 - or 8%. Other causes like heart failure, stroke, cancers of all kinds, and non-Covid respiratory diseases make up the bulk of the other 92%. The biggest threat to old folks like me is living longer and at some point succumbing to one of these other things. Once a vaccine is available, these other factors will probably reduce the Covid risk to 1-2%.

As for travel, I say approach the starting blocks and be ready to sprint when the starter's pistol goes off. Every moment you wait adds to your risks. I hope to travel until it becomes clear to me that my chance of dying in Europe (or elsewhere) might be large enough to cause serious inconvenience to others!

Russ I'm already traveling a bit, and you and I are the same age. But I'm in good health and weighed the risks for me. Even though the numbers you quote are promising, they are actually better: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

"Even though the numbers you quote are promising, they are actually better..."

Yes. your numbers are higher for both the Covid deaths AND the total deaths... resulting in a 9.7% Covid rate for all deaths in the 65+ group.

And - if I had computed accurately - mine would be 10.7% (not the faulty 8% rate that appears in my previous post.)

Either way, the message is about the same. Right now, we well-seasoned citizens are roughly 9 times more likely to die of something other than Covid-19 (and with a vaccine, even more likely.)

Russ, we are on the same page.

Yep. Only you're traveling, and I'm still putzing around at home.

Gary,

My advice is to make a few places you want to see in the US and get going. There is soooo much to see in this country, but we usually put it aside because we want to spend the time and go to Europe/overseas.
So, Rent a car for a month and travel out west. Head south and stay in a small Airbnb and take mini trips out to the Keys, to Sanibel Island, etc. Take the time to travel the US now and when things open back up, you will be ready. You will keep your "travel brain" sharp by doing so since you still need to budget, plan an itinerary, make reservations, pack, etc.

We all must stay positive and when I travel, even in the US, it feels good!

When I'm able to get a vaccine, I will continue to wear a mask, only eat at restaurants with tables outside, avoid crowds but I will go places, at least the ones who will let me in and have the tourist sites open.

Internally to Germany and Austria I'm ready to go hopefully in December. We’ve lived with the risk for some time now, but in no way do I advocate heard immunity. We have been successful with restrictions, but it seems too jubilant with the short-term result. Time to strengthen our resolve. I'm beginning to think there is a correlation with weather and subsequent change of conditions and I would have never said that before for any pox. I am truly sorry for the impacts to business especially family run. Some will not return. Europe will not be the same. I want to get through the next 30 days along with surrounding Countries and see the results. I’m in my 60s too. I hope a future vaccine is a silver bullet and will help return tourism as before the coronavirus. I don't have time to waste either. My 89 year old Father would like to see Germany again. Until the US and other Countries get the virus under control or the virus runs it's course there will be no tourism.

Russ, I know I'm pushing it a bit, but men in my family rarely last more than 80 years and I got a lot to do. AND, on the December trip I am traveling with a COVID nurse.

"Russ, I know I'm pushing it a bit..."

I kinda don't think so, James. I am kicking myself for being indecisive, timid and compliant when the Covid facts - and the set of life circumstances we share - should already have prompted me to pack a bag and go.

"...men in my family rarely last more than 80 years"

Barring a catastrophic accident, I think my genes may get me to 85+. Sadly, the post-78 years of my relatives have been characterized not by travel but by reduced mobility and certain conditions that require constant proximity to specialists, infusion centers, etc. So I'm probably facing a closing travel window much like yours - but not confronting it nearly as well as you.

@Steve from Maryland: We "done a ton" of domestic in decades past. But not everywhere, and we probably would've hit the road earlier this year to see what we missed - if we'd been able to settle on a suitable RV. I think this is a very big Covid-era trend. Seems the RV lots around here are virtually empty now and prices somewhat elevated for anything you order. But yeah, we may do some domestic without the RV. Good suggestion.

Regarding USA travel, I can not see that it is any safer. Every year for the last 15 I have traveled to Germany and my home state of Michigan. My two brothers and my best friend (with their families) live in MIchigan with their share of pre-existing conditions. A visit would be a risk to myself and to them. Missing my annual visit is weighing heavily on all of us.

I am still hopeful that my wife and I can return to Germany in late 2022. I am also hopeful of safely holding a new Granddaughter not too long after she is due to be born in March.

A lot is riding on us learning to live in such a way to tamp down this spreading virus with our behavior and the likely vaccine. Plus I think we need to re-design our buildings with better air flow and spacing to combat this and future epidemics.

More spacing and better airflow = larger carbon foot print.

Russ: no way I want the responsibility for encouraging anyone to do anything beyond the absolute safest course of action. I've had some good trips this year, both international and domestic and have 2 more planned before the year is out. So far, so good, but if you do wander out take every precaution and make sure conditions in you destination are such that you will enjoy. Otherwise why bother.

Step One: The Germans have to say "Willkommen" to Americans. Until that happens, everything else is moot.

Good point, conversely, when a country does say welcome, as a half dozen or so in Europe have, .... My only personal rules at that point are test before, test after, be cautious, wear a mask when I can't social distance, and buy CFAR trip insurance with a decent size med coverage.

James--How do you stay current on where Americans can travel?

Beth

Start here: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/COVID-19-Country-Specific-Information.html

With the exception of Croatia, I don't know of any EU countries that are welcoming US tourists. But that leaves a bunch of non-EU countries to research. Turkey, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania and Bosnia & Herzegovina are a few that right now, today, are welcoming US tourists. Some require a COVID test, others not. Next week? Who knows?

Thanks James. I was in some of those countries when they were part of former Yugoslavia and there was not much tourism. My son went to Dubrovnik in 2019 and it was a totally different place.

It's risky to arrange travel plans when you don't know the situation a week or month from now.

BethFL

I love that part of the world. December will be a return visit to Istanbul, Montenegro, Dubrovnik with a short jaunt through Bosnia & Herzegovina. Tourism in Dubrovnik is generally a mess, but for some reason I dont expect a lot in December. The rest of the region has been about right in past years; enough tourism to support a tourist infrastructure but not so much you feel like you are in Disneyland ... or Rome or Paris for that matter. Beautiful country sides, fascinating cities and towns and people interested in meeting people from other parts of the world. Pretty nice places to visit.

Oh, I left Ukraine off the list. Requires a COVID test (last time I checked ... about a month ago). Another place I really enjoyed.

BigMikeWestByGodVirginia

I went to Europe in September too. Life is full of risks. You choose to accept them or not. Of course I bought CFAR Trip insurance too.

Anyone Interested in the region should read this guy:
https://europebetweeneastandwest.wordpress.com/

James E: CFR. I'll have to look into that. Glad it worked for you.

Didn't have to use it last time. Hopefully won't this time. But its really overkill. Turkish Air was giving vouchers for COVID cancelations, hopefully they will continue. If not the insurance pays 75%, still cheaper than an upgrade to a fully flexible ticket. My hotel rooms all have pretty liberal cancelation policies, a few are 24 hour. But it was cheap and had COVID medical included .... so I did it. Against the pretty substantial hotel discounts right now, its a wash. But if anyone is thinking of buying, read the fine print for the coverage which runs 50 to 75% and may or may not cover COVID on the medical and the "for any reason" generally has a cut off date for when you can purchase it and when you can claim it.

I am looking at the summer of 2021 or even 2022., at which time I will be 72. Of course, this is based on the travel ban no longer being in effect. Like in diplomacy patience is the key, as well as in light of Corona, "durchhalten."

Anyone can evaluate and decide what's an acceptable risk to yourself
and justify it a hundred ways, but it's more than a little arrogant
and presumptuous to decide what's an acceptable risk to others - those
at your destination.

So then... you're saying that the anonymous visitor from abroad (let's say the USA) is better qualified than the local health and government authorities of a welcoming destination country (let's say Croatia) to decide whether or not the American's visit represents an undue risk to Croatians?

Maybe Rick Steves is the presumptuous one, if that's how he thinks. I think that decision should lie with the Croatian health and government authorities. Which it does. They decide who enters legally, and they require foreign tourists to follow the same Covid-19 rules as citizens during their visit. I assume tourists are tested, perhaps quarantined. And I assume Croatia has decided that admitted foreign tourists are no more a threat to their countrymen than their fellow countrymen.

Of course, just like you said, individuals have to make their own personal decisions about exposure to this virus. This is a different and much bigger decision for seniors 65+ (80% of the Covid dead! see CDC figures.) Many seniors go beyond the government guidelines with their self-imposed restrictions. If they leave the house, they must decide how often they leave, where they go, and how long to stay out. (Maybe Rick's senior status is why Rick really stays home? Or maybe his knees just need a break from a lifetime of international travel.)

Anyway, Croatian seniors at home are in the same boat as American seniors at home. The bug has not left their public squares yet. And if a given Croatian individual doesn't trust his government's decisions on foreign tourists, he should find them avoidable. Locals always seem to know where the bulk of tourists hang out.

Thank you for all the comments, it has been interesting to read. At 71, I too fall into "that" group and continue to be cautious. I feel fortunate as all family members have financially survived and remain healthy. Each fall, my husband and I have traveled in Europe for a month, I was aiming for 2021 to be the start of two annual trips!
To cope with my disappoint and free time, I am now planning our next trip. We are signed up for a barge/bike trip, September 2021. We always do pre and post trips so I have lots of fun planning the itinerary. I do extensive exploring of what to see, side trips, ready blogs and books, anything I can think of, pinpoint on the items on a map and start planning. It keeps me forward thinking , and I'll be ready! Safe travels to all, we will be back!

From what I'm reading it looks promising for a vaccine for the masses by spring. If all goes as planned the summer travel season might be open.

As for domestic travel... we went to the Finger Lakes and Niagara Falls, NY first week of October, 5 nights, all mid week. It was deserted everywhere we went. For instance, Maid of the Mist boat trip. 12 people, including us, on the entire boat! Lockport Canal Boat trip, 5 of us on the entire boat. Fort Niagara was all to ourselves! Hotel was basically empty. Temps lended themselves for outdoor dinners, which again, were basically is and maybe a couple of others for a large outdoor space. I guess we timed the trip right.

We went to Corning Glass Museum and Watkins Glen State Park on a Monday. Deserted! We were in heaven and couldn’t believe our luck.

I want to take my dad to Scotland but it's not worth dying for. Of course life has risks, but c'mon. Is 2022 that far away?

I think we will see more restrictions in Germany above what we have now after government meetings Monday. Though some charts show a decrease, numbers of new cases last week increased a few hundred more than the week before (23,000+). I have seen reports with some speculation of no fireworks for New Year’s, which is an individual purchased thing here. Maybe they are just not sold? The purpose would be to limit alcohol fueled breaking of restrictions. Fasching events are already being canceled and changed. I hope the vaccines can be administered to as many as possible when ready. No telling what future entrance and return requirements will be then. For what it's worth they are optimistically making artificial snow on the empty Piste, with the below freezing temps this week. The RKI International risk list just grows in most cases: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Transport/Archiv_Risikogebiete/Risikogebiete_20112020_en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile