Will Paris airfares go down?

You would need IBM Watson to answer your question, no human can predict what's going to happen to fares from your city to Paris four months from now since the answer is (massively) data-driven. In retrospect, you know now that $800 was the best fare you found and it would have been wise to grab it (especially if you have no flexibility on the timing). So now you have a low number and a high number, the goal is to track fares for a few weeks to see what other fares you can get that are closer to the low number. In other words, you need more than two data points before panicking. Probably the best you can do is to find something in the middle (hopefully closer to the low number). Don't wait too long or else the fares may exceed the high number at some point (although that's also a guess, no one knows what the ceiling or the floor going forward is). If you're not flexible on dates, perhaps you can be flexible on airlines, schedule, and airports to drive the cost number down a bit.

3 weeks ago I booked my airfare from Boston to Pairs, direct flight on Delta, for $921 which I thought was an amazing price. Now it's down to $724. It could have easily gone up (probably more likely that it would have) so I still think I did the right thing. I have inflexible dates as well. I was expecting to pay $1,500 which is what it's been in the past.

Bill, what's your departure airport? And what are your date parameters?

I checked fares from RDU to Italy about 10 days ago for a relative and was disappointed to see things in the $1300 range for September. Fares from the Washington DC area to Nice and returning from London seem to be quite a bit higher now than they were when I snagged a great deal 15 - 20 days ago. I'd be paying an extra $250 for my flights if I bought them today.

Unfortuntely, you never know. But I completely agree that you need to start monitoring the fares daily. I kept a spreadsheet showing the cost of each of the most desirable connections. Perhaps there will be some deals around Christmas.

Predicting the stock market or predicting the weather weeks or months in advance is easier than predicting airfares. Good luck with that. Set a price you're willing to live with, when you see an airfare near or less than that, buy it. And don't look at them again, you'll only stress if they go lower. If you want to waste time and brain energy researching and following them to see where they are going then fine, do that. Personally I don't have the desire to do that. If I end up paying a bit more than others I don't really care, it's not that important to my trip. I have more important things to occupy me.

When you see sale airfares pop up you should grab them immediately. Will Paris airfares go down: probably. Will Paris airfares go up: probably. But you'll never be able to predict it. Check them constantly and jump on the good airfare when it's available.

The only way you know what's a "good fare" is to have some feel for what the range or distribution of fares is from your outbound city to your destination city. I have not seen any fire sales involving Raleigh that I can remember (it's always bigger markets like NYC, Washington, Houston, etc.). Perhaps Charlotte?

When I say doing some research/tracking, I don't mean every single day but it should be over some time span like a few weeks to a few months. Just so you have several data points to work with. It really doesn't matter what the fares were last year or what other people bought them for when flying from different cities to Paris. Those other fares are not the least bit generalizable. And you can rest assured that you likely won't be that person on the plane who paid the least for his/her ticket (so it's not worth obsessing over getting the rock bottom fare). Best of luck with your search!

That's interesting because in early April I am seeing multiple carriers less than $500 from Denver for our sping break, but I don't know if I can buy because of kids stuff and my wife's new job. :(

Try deleting your browser cookies and do the search again. Of course someone will mention that airlines using cookies to raise prices for people searching the same destination is an urban legend but, I have yet to see proof that they don't. In fact several posters have claimed deleting cookies immediately gave them better pricing but that doesn't prove it works either. All I'm saying is it's worth a shot, let us know if it makes a difference (or not).

A few weeks ago I was able to buy tickets from DEN to Paris for late April for about $500. We are retired so I bought them the same day I found them. 😊 The benefit of being old......

Charlotte has direct flights seasonally into Paris deGaulle Airport, but they're in the $1300's, with slightly cheaper flights Tuesday-Wednesday-Thuirsday. That's on American Airlines.
Have you checked with some flight consolidators like TripMasters.com or Dunhill Travel? Sometimes they can book a room and flight for the same price as above.
In the southeast, I keep my eye on ClarkHoward.com for travel bargains.

Thank you for the advice. Today I'm seeing fares for around $900, but with 2 stops and anywhere from 27 to 44 hours of travel time:0 The search continues!

I hate the fluctuations and uncertainty of airfares--I travel from SFO and if I see a fare that's non-stop when applicable or just one stop, with departure and arrival that suits, for right around $1000, I jump on it.

Bill, what are your travel dates? I visit flights.google.com fairly often (when a post like yours pops up), and I'm keeping an eye out for the relative who's interested in Italy in September. I can watch for things happening with RDU-CDG fares, as well.

Roughly April 6-16, give or take. I've looked at Google flights--is it possible to set up alerts? I don't see anywhere to do that.

Have you tried Charlotte to JFK on American, and then Norweigan to Paris? I looked at the first week of April and it looks like it would be a very reasonable way to travel. Norweigan Shuttle may not be fancy but the planes are supposed to be pretty comfortable and the prices are very reasonable. (We scored a $350 RT flight from JFK to Paris for a March vacation.) For a little more we added checked luggage and a meal. Still a deal!

Bill, this is the way I was able to set up an alert on Google Flights:

• Enter desired origin, destination, and dates.
• When the list of outbound flight options appears, choose the one you (currently) like best.
  
• When the list of return flight options appears, choose the one you (currently) like best.

Beneath the return flight you've selected a new section will appear, titled "Book, track or share this flight". In that section you'll find one or more options for booking the flight, then "Track Price" with a zigzag-arrow button off to the right. Click on that button to turn on price alerts.

My alerts came in with information not only on the itinerary I had selected but also with some others, but I don't know what sort of algorithm Google uses to decide how far afield to go with notifications on alternative flights. I'd definitely set up a notification for each date combination that would work for you. It wouldn't hurt to set up a multiple alerts if there are several flight itineraries you'd consider acceptable.

Susan, what site did you use to book these? Direct on the airlines' sites?

Bill- Go directly to the airline sites. You don't need to do anything special. Pretty simple! Susan

When you put together separate tickets for a trip to Europe, any problem with the first flight that causes you to miss the second is on you. Neither airline will be responsible for providing a replacement ticket, so you'll have to pony up the money for a last-minute replacement ticket. Because of the timing of transatlantic flights, missing the second leg could well cost you a full day of vacation time. Be sure the cost savings are large enough to make those risks worthwhile, and allow lots of time between the flights.

I've always flown to Europe on a single ticket, but I believe what you're considering will require you to collect your checked baggage (if any) at the transfer point and go back through security. If the first leg is domestic and the second one international, you'll be subject to the 3-hour check-in requirement/standard for that second flight.

When returning to the US on two separate tickets, you go through immigration and customs (after collecting your baggage) at your first US stop, so again you need to allow a lot of extra time for that transfer.

Yes indeed there is a risk, but Norwegian flights are late at night so you can leave lots of time between flights. And if you follow Rick's advice and only bring a carry-on, that isn't a problem. I guess it depends on your willingness to take an educated risk versus savings hundreds of dollars.

Good luck, Bill.

A few weeks ago I bought a ticket from Boston to Paris for $650 in September on a major U.S. airline. Your post is making me feel pretty good about my purchase. I didn't even have much of a specific plan (or approved time off from work). But it was too tempting, and I knew it couldn't get too much lower. So I guess there is no ideal fare. Only your comfort zone, balanced against a desire to visit this wonderful country (and balanced against your available funds). Of course, I thought my purchase would satisfy my need to return to France next year, but September is a long way off. So I'm already day-dreaming of how I could fit in another trip in between now and then. Enjoy your trip!

Thanks! Doing more research now!

Not sure anyone can really guess, you can use your best guess or the best guess of experts and still be completely wrong. I think the two, or three, things that feed into the price right now - in order of importance are:
1. Supply and demand (obviously) - the more unsold tickets the airline has the lower the price will go. Conversely if they see big demand, the price will go up. Airlines have computerized algorithms that predict demand and adjust airfares. This may be a period where the prices are kept high anticipating a lot of trips purchased during the holidays. If sales don't go as well as expected, we might see a price drop in January.
2. Oil prices - since most of their cost is fuel, the airlines probably bumped up prices when the oil producers agreed to limit production (a week or two ago). Higher oil prices mean higher jet fuel. If the price support strategy works, fuel prices will go up. If not, oil and fuel could drop lower than before.
3. Euro - the euro is REALLY low right now - under $1.05 as recently as yesterday. If you check Europe based air carriers, the price may go down because their fares are tied to the euro rather than the dollar. Normally Air France is high, but Wow Air, SAS, Lufthansa, etc. may offer deals that are worth buying.

Bill, take a look at fares from Washington, DC. We've been seeing pretty good prices out of Dulles. We are planning to drive up from Asheville to fly out of there this next fall. Parking doesn't look too steep, and the drive up there from Raleigh isn't excessive. If you find a good fare from there, it isn't too early to book it.

Bruce

Also to add another idea to the previous post, if you do drive to a distant airport for a flight consider renting a car for the journey instead of driving your own car and parking it for the days/weeks you'll be gone. We weigh our break even point and usually end up renting a car when we make the 2h drive to our area's international airport.

Further to Bruce's suggestion about flying out of Dulles: In the past at least a few hotels/motels out there have had a free-parking deal for customers who stayed with them before flying out of Dulles.

It goes without saying, I assume, that the last 50 - 70 miles of the Raleigh to Dulles drive can be tiresome, with average speed below 30 mph even in the absence of highway construction work or accidents. I would not want to make that drive on the day of my departure.

We just paid $406 mid April from Denver. I've been looking, seriously, 10 to 15 times a day, on Skyscanner. I've seen it go from $718 to $381. Sometimes I'd look on 2 or 3 different devices at the same time and get different prices. My best advice would be to look often, on multiple devices, at all times of day and night, and be ready to pounce when you see the best deal. Also be willing to fly out of another airport. In the past we have flown low cost from Denver to LA and flown Norwegian, still a much better deal than Denver to Paris at the time.

From LA Times:

you could use a service such as Yapta, which will keep an eye on airfare and hotel room prices and notify you if you're eligible for a refund if you booked directly with the airline.

"We are tracking [fares] 24/7," said Jeff Pecor, a Yapta spokesman. "I think that's incredibly valuable as [airline] revenue management becomes more and more sophisticated for consumers also to have a higher level of sophisticated [tools]."

Yapta does not charge for this service.

For a fee, you also can lock in fares on some booking engines (Flyr, among them) and with some airlines. And under Department of Transportation rules, you can book an airfare and cancel within 24 hours for a refund.

I'd like to thank everyone for their advice--it really came down to constant monitoring! Out of nowhere, a fare popped up for $833/each from Raleigh to Paris DIRECT. We were just about to drop $750/each and drive four hours each way to fly in and out of Dulles. Whew! Now on to the itinerary!

Congratulations! When I'm planning a trip I start watching airfares months in advance and when I see a good deal I book it.

We got tickets from Seattle to Paris for ~$700 in Dec. I just got a notification that it's dropped to ~$650 but we've also gotten notices it has popped over $700 a couple times. Put your itinerary into google flights (or the site of your choice) & sign up for alerts. Check pricing on Wednesdays - most likely day for best price. If you don't see anything cheaper in the next few weeks or it starts to jump, but your tickets now. Good luck!

We also found cheap tickets from Denver ($433 on Air France). Maybe they decided to discount the route. We booked it immediately and have our tickets in hand. Very excited!

Last week or so a friend of mine got a great deal on Air France SFO to Warsaw with a 2 hour layover in Paris CDG, (ie, SFO to CDG, non-stop, then CDG to Warsaw) suits her just fine with a two hour layover, departing Aug 7, 2017 and returning CDG to SFO direct on Oct 7...all for $1,151 in Economy, considering it's still high season, the trip's duration, and on a major carrier, it's very much a deal. Ordinarily, from the west coast that sort of flight would have been $1, 500 or more.

I bought my ticket to Paris from Baltimore on WOW (in May) air for about $500 (including reserving seats but not luggage). Baltimore is less convenient for me than Reagan or Dulles, but the ticket price makes it worth it for me.

Every year, I've started shopping fares as soon as start thinking about dates.

This year, we were not planning an April visit, but changed our minds, end of January. Found non-stop from Boston, Air France, convenient times, Premium Economy, $1,580 round trip.

We are leaving for Paris, from Raleigh, in a little over a week. We bought our plane tickets Last summer. We got tickets for $600. It is NOT non-stop, but at that price it is worth it.

I fear that you will find that airfares are often tied to specific dates, such as spring break. We recently booked AirFrance from Chicago to Paris for about $700 per person. We specifically avoided holidays and school breaks. If you are on a specific time table they more or less have you between the rock and the hard place.

I just booked non-stop on American from Philly to Paris for $453 RT 2 days ago for late August. In the past month I've seen quite a few fare sales for late summer and early fall.

In mid-February I got a non-stop flight on American, BOS to CDG, with seat assignments, for $370RT the first week of June. I wasn't originally going to go this summer, but I can't fly to California for that. One never can tell. But it helps to be able to decide quick if yo see something that looks good.

Sign up for Google flight alerts on their travel site. I did this just for the hell of it and I'm watching fares on the same route whipsaw up and down several times a week, by several hundreds (if not a thousand) dollars. It's insane the games their computers play.