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what's happening to $/euro

My wife and I are spending 3 weeks in September of 2018.
Last year I bought euros (with added bank fee) at $1.12.
Right now the euro is costing almost $1.27 in U.S. dollars.
Any idea what the trend is going to look like in 2018 for
converting U.S. dollars into euros? Thanks!

Posted by
1443 posts

Don't worry about it. Over the years sometimes the exchange rate will be with you and sometimes against you. It all evens out in the end.

Posted by
6619 posts

Absolutely no clue. But I think the safest assumption is that the euro will rise further. It was in the $1.35 range on our last trip to France.

I don't think anyone who contributes to this board has any history of successful currency speculation, but I'd love to hear from anyone who has, and learn their secrets! ;-)

Posted by
3197 posts

You just have to roll with the punches when dealing with the FX rates. Current rate is 1€=$1.205. Instead of getting them at your bank, get a debit card from a bank that doesn’t charge FX fees and get your euros from a bank owned, as opposed to privately owned, ATM once in Europe. Check the “Moneyl section in the Travel Tips section of this site for more info.

Posted by
2712 posts

Interesting question. If anyone knew what the exchange rate would be in any given time in the future they would have all the money in the world. In other words, it's unpredictable and should have no bearing on your travel plans. If you like the current exchange rate, fine, buy more. But, be prepared for this trade to either be in your favor or go against you.

Posted by
5837 posts

And it's even lower as of today 02 Jan 2018:
http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=EUR
US Dollar
1 USD = 0.830054 EUR
↔Euro
1 EUR = 1.20474 USD
at 2018-01-03 01:52 UTC

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 02, 2018

[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD rallied to a new four-month high at 1.2077 just earlier, since settling around 1.2062-65. The move mostly reflects ongoing
broad dollar softness, but also a degree or two of euro
outperformance, with the common currency having also edged out a
26-month high versus the yen, a five-week high against the pound, a
two-session high relative to the Swiss franc, and a four-session high
versus the Australian dollar. The final December manufacturing PMI out
of the Eurozone was confirmed at a solid, peer-beating 60.6 reading,
as expected but reaffirming the impressive growth momentum that's been
building up in the Eurozone economy. This is now the eighth session
out of the last nine that EUR-USD has gained, which is an impressive
run by historical standards, and we expect that the market is now ripe
for a consolidation ahead of key data releases this week, which
culminate with the U.S. December jobs report on Friday. EUR-USD has a
key resistance at 1.2092, which is the September major-trend peak, and
1.2100. Support is at 1.12014-15.

Posted by
4010 posts

Right now the euro is costing almost $1.27 in U.S. dollars.

Just an FYI -- I use the xe currency app to check exchange rates and the exchange rate is actually better than what you quoted above.

€1 = $1.2046. It's been in that range all day. I just looked at a currency chart furnished by xe and the exchange hasn't been $1.27 to the €1 since the end of 2014.

Any idea what the trend is going to look like in 2018 for converting
U.S. dollars into euros? Thanks!

Nobody here has crystal balls but looking at the 5 year chart, the trend is that since the beginning of last year, the € has been rising since it was at $1.06 to €1 in January 2017.

Posted by
5687 posts

A few years back it was up past 1.3, so at 1.2 today it still seems good. I think some of us got spoiled when it was below 1.1!

Posted by
20309 posts

American manufacturers are celebrating, American tourists are moaning, European manufacturers are gnashing their teeth, European tourists are popping champagne corks. Depends on where yo' git ya' co'n pone.

Posted by
14580 posts

It looks as if the $ (making America strong) has gone in a reverse direction a bit more. Last time I checked the rate was $1.18 to the Euro. I had better check more often.

I am glad I brought back a lot of Euro when the rate stood at $1.12, just for contingencies like this. Bad as it is, $1.20 is better than $1.30, while $1. 12 is wishful thinking now.

Posted by
2466 posts

The euro is terrible against the GBP - 1.37.
The euro is currently 1.20 against the dollar.
In 2008, the euro was 1.41 against the dollar. Count your blessings.
I would not advise buying euros until things calm down.

Posted by
15644 posts

It all depends on your vantage point. I remember being happy with sterling at $1.50, because the last time I'd visited London, it was about $2.00. A couple years ago the euro was almost at par with the dollar, $1.04-1.06. I bought several thousand euros that lasted me through several trips, so today when I see $1.20 it looks pretty high, but I've also had to buy euros at $1.35 in previous years.

Posted by
394 posts

It would appear the Euro is reverting back to its longer-term trend against the dollar, after several years of being 'cheap' by historical comparison. Not claiming clairvoyance or anything, but I suspect that trend will continue throughout 2018, as our Powell-led Fed ratchets up interest rates a quarter-point 3 to 4 times this year (what they've telegraphed as their intention). We were just in Florence and the exchange rate bounced btwn 1.18-1.20 during our two-week stay. Still very reasonable, but admittedly sharper than early-'17 prevailing rates of ~ 1.08. What I'd recommend is to look into a checking account with atm/debit card which doesn't impose FX fees and rebates atm transaction fees if not in network (Charles Schwab has such an offering); that way you can withdraw monies in local currency, not have to carry too much at a time, and not get hit with unnecessary travel charges.

Posted by
5697 posts

What has been said earlier -- get your € as you need them from bank ATM's in Euro countries, NOT ahead of time from your hometown bank. I just (January 3) got €300 from a bank in Vienna at a cost of $1.20485 per €, substantially below the $1.27 OP quoted. (No fees, either -- Schwab card.)

Posted by
3767 posts

I have no idea which way the trend is going. I go to Europe two or three times per year and just get Euro as I need them. I read a couple of financial writers and some are predicting a stronger Euro versus the US dollar because they see an improved manufacturing outlook for European economies and others are saying a stronger dollar because they predict higher interest rates in the US. Ultimately, anyone who knows or think they know for sure is busy doing currency trading or relaxing on their yachts and probably will not share their knowledge with us here on the RS travel forum.

Posted by
6719 posts

Simple, the dollar is getting weaker against both the Euro and British pound. It fluctuates daily. I’ve paid as little as .83 per Euro when it was first introduced to $1.65 or so. I bought a bunch at $1.12 but those will run out on our next trip.

Posted by
3521 posts

No telling. Depends on politics, the economy, and other world events that might cause a panic one way or another.

I bought enough on my last trip at $1.08 to last a couple years at my spending rate when I visit Europe. :-)

But I have paid as much as $1.45 in the past.

It is what it is.

Finding a way to avoid the fees would be the best way to minimize your cost.

Posted by
23420 posts

Where are you seeing $1.27? Is that you quoted bank rate? If so, that is about par for buying through a US bank - roughly 6% or more mark up. At an ATM in Europe today, you should get an exchange rate of about 1.21xx to 1.22. It is trending upwards but my reading is that it will stay in the range of 1.20 to perhaps 1.25. Of course, if some idiot starts a war in Korea, all bets are off.

Posted by
11 posts

I do not trade currency and have no crystal ball. But looking at the futures market my guess is that without any economic shock, it will stay around $1.20USD= 1Eur in the beginning of 2018.

Posted by
12172 posts

I hope this makes sense. I work for the Treasury and I wonder if I'm able to put it in normal English?

The dollar starts recovering when the US starts showing inflation.

Right now Europe Central Bank is backing off their earlier efforts to spur the economy more rapidly than the federal reserve. That's causing the dollar to drop against the euro. The last fed minutes (came out Wednesday this week) show the hawks (those who want to raise interest rates faster) are close to outnumbering the doves (those who want to go slow). The euro is rising because they have been more hawkish than the US. Our federal reserve wants to see signs of inflation before they're comfortable raising rates (back to historic norms) at a faster pace.

Posted by
5837 posts

As Brad alludes, the difference between certain economic factors like interest rates affects the strength/weakness of one currency against another. Besides interest rates, inflation rates, national/public debt, political stability, balance of trade and other relative economic factors affect the relative value of currency.

That said, if public debt and political stability are factors, with the projected 10 year $1.5T to $2T increase in national debt and the political and emotional stability of our country, it would seem like the EUR could be a good long term buy.

Posted by
14580 posts

Compare and contrast where the exchange rate (Euro/$) stood in Jan 2017, ie, the time of the Inauguration, and where that rate stands currently.

Posted by
4010 posts

Compare and contrast where the exchange rate (Euro/$) stood in Jan
2017, ie, the time of the Inauguration, and where that rate stands
currently.

I'm doing that with the NYSE and NASDAQ. I'm loving life because the record highs in both NYSE and NASDAQ more than make up for stronger euro in the past year. The Dow went up 1000 points in under 5 months! That's a first.

Where are you seeing $1.27? Is that you quoted bank rate?

The OP never answered that as that was asked a few times. It's been since 2014 since we've seen $1.27 = €1.00

Posted by
4597 posts

The Dow went up 1000 points in under 5 months!

My international stocks have done as well or better, although a declining $ will help that.

And all this stuff goes down as well as up.

Posted by
14580 posts

The Dow having gone up a thousand points in the last five months and the $ has gotten weaker from $ 1.11 to $1.20 relative to the Euro, admittedly both assertions are accurate historically.

Posted by
2712 posts

Currency trading is a very speculative sport. You have to be right about many macro economic factors and on both sides of the trade. That is not what you are doing but some of these posts are more about that it seems. So, since nobody knows what the exchange rate will be, either buy more euros now and be prepared to be happy or sad when your trip comes. Or, do what we do-get some euros so your pockets are not empty when you land (you already have those. I hate using airport ATM's when I'm jet lagged) and use a no fee credit card to charge your big expenses, at the prevailing exchange rate.

Posted by
14580 posts

Exactly. Before I came back from the summer trip in 2016, I had pulled out enough Euro, ie 1,000 Euro since the rate stood at $1.12, to bring back, did almost likewise in July 2017 but not as much. The purpose was to build up the Euro cash reserve when the started to go up (such as currently) and for the next trip.