To Go or Not to Go

France is slightly behind the U.K. in terms of the Omicron variant, but with transmission doubling every 3 days or so, things could change quickly.

Here in the U.K., there has been a substantial shift in the past week in the government’s stance on households mixing and what is permitted. I don’t think they dare stop Christmas again but I see restrictions being tightened immediately after Christmas. France is usually quicker to react than the U.K. government, although being so close to Christmas, if Omicron takes a hold there, it will be in a couple of weeks, although the advice to restrict gatherings, indoor activities etc may come sooner. It seems to be more of ‘when’ Omicron takes hold rather than ‘if’. How long is your trip?

You need to consider what if you were to test positive for Covid whilst in France, as supposedly, Omicron is highly transmissible. France’s vaccination rate is lower than the U.K..

I cancelled my trip to Spain planned for 7 January yesterday.

Frank covered this via NYT

https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/covid19/nyt-what-happens-if-you-test-positive-while-traveling

France’s vaccination rate is lower than the U.K.

Is that correct?

As of today, the TousAntiCovid app states that 89% of the French population over 12 years old are fully vaccinated.

The BBC, as of today, states that only 81% of those in England over 12 years old are fully vaccinated.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

It is very difficult to project what will happen in France based on the UK because the two countries have handled the pandemic very differently, including the type of vaccines administered during the first months, when each was able to obtain vaccine, and the indoor mask mandates, which were never lifted in France.

The ICU bed occupancy in France is 58%. That and total hospital occupancy, indicating severe illness, is what is important. You can have huge numbers of positive test results, but if 99% are vaccinated people with sniffles who have lost their sense of smell, it's not a crisis. It's very difficult to go only by positive test numbers. Keep your eye on hospitalizations and ICU capacity.

It's highly unlikely France will lock down before January, if even then. I'd be more concerned about testing positive and missing my plane to return to the US. This is new territory. My triple-vaxxed, fully masked 35 year old son just tested positive.

The indoor mask wearing in public places was never lifted in Wales or Scotland - just in England. Hospitalisations and ICU beds occupied are critical. Not enough is known about Omicron yet.

We arrived two days ago and everything seems fine. Our passes are checked most big places and no one is talking about closures. But I guess you never know!

Point to ponder:

"The Danish government said Friday it would close cinemas, theaters and concert halls, as well as restaurants, bars and museums, for at least four weeks in a bid to break a new wave of COVID-19 infections being driven by the highly-infectious omicron variant. The proposals, announced by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, have to be approved by the Danish parliament’s Epidemic Committee before going into effect."

If you are arriving on Tuesday, you will probably be fine. Nothing much is changing, really, although maybe it seems that way. There have been some fairly minor changes in terms of restrictions lately and the UK issue which is because they're not in the EU. The government is unlikely to do anything major inside France during the holiday period. It also does appear that France is at this wave's peak. I doubt that there will be much in the way of French imposed EU travel restrictions for the same reason (French going and returning from holiday). Now after the holidays if case levels remain high and hospitalization rates increase then yes, I would be concerned about more measures. I live in France.

Major restrictions (internal movement, blanket entry and exit bans on all countries outside the EU without compelling reason, etc)
have come into play when the ICU occupancy rate was very high. Currently, it is at 57% (not that bad). Internally, the government is mostly focusing on increasing vaccination rate (it's 89% age 12 and up), having people get boosters to maintain the passe sanitaire, etc.

I'm here now in Strasbourg. I've been impressed with the mask-wearing (so different from home) and that everywhere I've gone I've had to show my pass. We're also not taking busses or trains because we have a rental car. I have a friend who lives in Paris with her husband and they travel by train all over. It seems as though life is moving forward, although I can't say what will happen next week.

UPDATED TO ADD: I just watched a segment on French news - France24 - that said the government is hoping to make it so that testing will no longer be enough for the Pass Sanitaire, that vaccination and regular boosters will be required to access public spaces with the pass. In addition, the government is asking local communities not to organize large celebrations for New Years.