Knowing if/when to cancel reservations

For the first three nights, I booked a hotel that wasn’t my first choice but it was one that I could cancel by 4 pm on the day of. I figured I’d know by then whether or not the trip would happen. For the next nights, I chose hotels with a 2 day cancellation window.

This was for a trip to Spain and with rising infection rates we decided to cancel Spain - flights and hotels.

I’ve been keeping a spreadsheet to compare daily cases and cases per 100,000 for several countries. Based on that, we’ve rebooked (September travel) for Germany. If France allows us to travel there we’ll enter from Germany - if not, we’ll just travel in Germany.

Bottom line: our plans are very flexible and if things look challenging, we won’t go.

I hope you will get travel soon but maybe for hotels booked for early in the trip, make sure you can cancel within a day or two of travel…just in case you have to cancel.

No one can answer your question as to what is going to happen in September. Everything is fluid. You have to decide on your own comfort level.

COVID will be around, there’s no doubt about that. It’s likely to be pretty high in late August/early September according to the models. The real question is are you willing to spend 10 or more days in quarantine locked up in a small room? It’s an easy answer for me.

I keep reminding myself that it's already tomorrow in Europe- so to cancel a day before the deadline in the worst case scenario !

Thank you for the helpful link Aimee. We are also sitting on the fence for our late August Trip to Southern France. We also have booked everything to allow us to cancel a few days in advance, and the air fair using miles can be canceled anytime. I am keeping a close eye on things but it is starting look unlikely that we will be traveling this fall. Dang Delta Variant!

Just as a data point, tonight I canceled the trip to Oaxaca I'd already mostly paid for. My wife and I, along with two friends, were supposed to meet in the city on September 12. Tonight, I heard from two friends in Mexico and one of our tour guides that due to surging cases of Delta, and now Lambda, Oaxaca state is going back to Stage Red soon. If that happens, everything closes down. Already, it's starting to happen with most bars and restaurants closing again even without the declaration.

The plane tickets were business class, so we'll just apply the money to another trip; the cost of the two tours will be harder to claw back, but if it looks like it's going to be an issue, I'll let the guides keep it. I'm sure they can use it a lot more than I can right now.

So, bummer -- given that I've been planning this trip since late last year and thought we'd be past the worst of the outbreak by now. The next thing I'm watching for is the cancellation of Outside Lands in San Francisco on Halloween.

And the band played on...

-- Mike Beebe

Regarding the link to Sortir à Paris that Aimee posted, French statistics are per week, so divide numbers by 7. We live in a dark red area. The only changes are the requirements to maskoutside and the cancellation of large free concerts where the health pass can’t be controlled. Otherwise, everything is up and running.

New restrictions could be in place by early September (who knows...), although they seem less likely now than a few weeks ago due to the ongoing protests against such restrictions. It is really hard to tell.

But my main worry at this stage would be: what happens if you are stuck on the wrong side of the ocean due to a "breakthrough" positive test, despite being vaccinated? If you are able to insure or to afford 7-10 days in a hotel + new flight home, and do not have specific commitments back home, then why not. Otherwise it would really stress me out...

We arrived in Paris yesterday on August 7th. All I can say is I have no regrets on things the chance to come back! No problems with showing our vaccine card..we just let folks know we are nonEU visitors. Everyone has been wonderful. They are thrilled to have us back, but they are frustrated they are not allowed to come to see us in America. Outdoors, you see some masks. Inside folks were masks. We went to olympic event at the Trocedro today...they were testing nonvaccinated on site so they could attend. Masks were present, but just like in the USA some folks do not know how to wear them....though they could be French, USA or other nationity.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/covid-4/coronavirus-france