Is it too early to buy fall airfare to go to France?

I booked a flight to London last week for September. I’m actually planning to go to Paris. I’ll just fly from London to Paris on a non-protective connection (I know what I’m doing it’s fine don’t worry about it people) but it is a risk. Luckily the airline will give me a full credit to use if I can’t take the flight.

That said, I would not plan on really cheap airfares this year. I think there’s a lot of pent up demand and the airlines have been bleeding cash. If they think they can get people to pay more they’re going to.

We are planning a potential cross country domestic trip for August and the day after booking the departure was moved back 7 hours and also now shows "sold out" in all cabin classes online. It looks like the airline combined the morning and afternoon into one really early flight.
Covid predictions and restrictions aside the volatility as bookings increase would be something I would factor in, especially if you are connecting anywhere.
Those "easy" changes or cancellations? Not so much. It was going to be a 2 hour hold time due to "heavy volume"!
Pre- pandemic I was the one with everything booked at least 6 and usually 9 months out.

I have a flight to Paris in July!

In the same boat. Airfare has skyrocketed in cost and not sure it's going to go down anytime soon. With that said, we don't think we will buy into the high airfare this year. We usually go twice a year and in searching sales, etc. are able to get RT from $600-825 depending on destination and time of year. Right now we are looking at $1200-$1500. It just takes the joy out of the trip and is hard to justify the double cost. Guess we just have to be patient. While so many are eager to hop a plane, we wonder how many will actually do so with some fear of COVID still existing, even with immunizations?

Is it too early to buy fall airfare?

That’s a hard question because no one knows when it’s best to buy plane tickets because it’s all about that market (destination). For budget airlines the sooner the better but for flagship carriers there is no right time. Sometimes it’s cheaper to book three weeks out.
Fewer planes are in the air these days so as demand grows, more planes will spend less time on the ground. This will then increase the amount of schedule changes especially the further out you buy.

What are the change/cancellation rules?

If you are talking September/October...probably too late for decent fares, might still hit it lucky. November/December, still some bargains, but probably higher than typical winter fares.

I'll buy when Western Europe is OPEN aka I can get into what I want to get into without major restrictions (I do not view a mask as a restriction). It will open when it opens...cost is not an issue for me. But it is for many thus I am concerned about thought processes ...those who can least afford to waste money are the one's who seem to risk the most. They want to lock in a cheap air fare but without knowing what the status of the City/Country will be as of their intended arrival date (I can't see everyone not being fully open by Fall but then last summer I would have said that about this Spring). The one's risking the most seem to be those who express the most financial concern with the risk of loss. Your finances are yours alone and not anyone's business but please be careful out there.

If you wait until things are completely clear, you’ll be jostling with everyone else who waits until then. And will tickets actually be cheaper, or likely more expensive, based on suddenly opened demand? What provisions would your tickets include, if you bought now but couldn’t use when the time came to use them? If you’re committed to go in the fall, and the tickets are a good (or acceptable) price, buy now, while tickets are available.

I hope not.
Yesterday, I "purchased" tickets for the end of August to Paris. I mostly fly Delta. I used miles, so that makes it feel a bit more secure. Going forward, Delta is allowing changes for all ticket levels except Economy plus. In my search of airfares, I wasn't finding great deals to anywhere outside the U.S.. That could be partially due to living in "Delta country" in the middle of the U.S. I did think I got a good "price" in miles.
If you fly with American, check their policies in terms of rescheduling. If you book now and prices drop you may be able to get a credit if they are operating similar to Delta. That way you are kind of hedging your bet.

I recently had cause to check on our July reservations for a (domestic) flight on United. I didn’t read closely since our plans are set, but I believe it said that reservations could be changed or refunded once with no fee. Worth looking into.

Particularly for summer and into the fall, air travel demand is expected to be very strong. After months of heavy losses in the airline industry, the low fare classification might transform into a new norm, one that is much costlier than it was in the past. If you plan on traveling, I would book early.

In addition, some airlines, such as Air France, offer free cancellation (and not just free changes) until the end of the year 2021, so read the fine print and get that credit card ready :-)

I have tix booked through Aer Lingus (changeable with no fee) for the end of October, I think we'll be ok by then.

My tickets for late August are changeable without a fee but not cancellable. That is OK because we will go eventually. The pricing, however, was extremely elevated (at least 50% to 80% higher than normal) due to the lack of available seats/planes, as others mentioned.

Does anyone know if US citizens who are vaccinated will still have to get a test to RETURN to the US by, say, June?

My husband and I are always checking our air fares and we always do REALLY EARLY......and we are usually surprised at what we can find. We feel like we can always reschedule.......not cancel but just plan a trip for a different time......we found a nonstop from JFK to ZURICH in September for $500 6 months ago.......feeling like with vaccines that all would be fine by September.......and though we just cancelled a trip to France for May 26, 2021 we will reschedule it for May 2022. We think the Switzerland trip in September will be fine and that Europe will be open by then.......just pursue the airline sites daily and see what is out there, especially early!

Todd: no one knows (unless I missed an announcement) but if I were betting on it, I would say yes.

Jerry,
I recently booked airfare to Italy for October of this year. I used miles, so if I have to cancel, then I get my miles back.