Baltic Safety

Certainly. At least until it isnt. But I think you will have time to rabbit out if something changes.

I wouldnt hesitate to go. Actually, might be now or not for a very long time.

I am considering a trip to the Baltic this summer as well. Not concerned right now. We'll see what the next few months brings.

The 3 Baltic capitals (my forum trip report here) felt perfectly safe to me 2 summers ago, traveling solo. Very peaceful and friendly and a perfect getaway from the heat at home.

Well, TODAY they're fine.

I traveled extensively in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania a few years ago. Great people, wonderful things to see and do, like the "old time" Europe we all dream of - full of history, architecture, nature, surprising quirks, and not a lot of tourist crowds. That was one of my favorite trips to Europe of all time. I saw zero evidence of any crime, it seemed as safe as Scandinavia (in fact, they feel like Scandinavia in many ways, too - they're right across the Baltic and share many things, but with an eastern twist). Generally less expensive than western Europe, too. But... (you know there's a 'but' coming)...

Yes, these countries are absolutely threatened by Russia (literally). Russia considers them temporarily lost provinces - just like Ukraine - and has every intention of taking them back. They'll remain safe (and independent) as long as Russia is prevented from doing to them what they're doing to Ukraine. Which in today's geopolitical environment, could change completely in just a few days (America has effectively "switched sides" in Russia's war against Ukraine - we've gone from backing Ukraine to backing Russia, and that happened over the course of less than a week).

Practically, Russia still has it's hands full trying to conquer Ukraine, and will probably be kept busy with that at least for a while. But how long it takes them to complete that sad task depends to a great degree on how the current US administration backs them, and every indication is that US support hangs by a very, very thin thread (I'm being charitable in that description). Ukraine could be left looking to France and the UK to stop the Russians (and to their credit, both France, UK and most of our current or former NATO allies seem to be moving to try to fill the gap left by America switching sides, but that takes time and will never be equivalent to what the US has provided). Without US support (and with US support for Russia), Ukraine will not be able to hold very long. Then Russia is free to move on to the next item on their list, and it won't be long before they move.

A care-free trip to the Baltics is probably perfectly safe if you are going soon (like, in the coming days or a few weeks). For a trip this summer or beyond, I would be much more circumspect. I would suggest anyone contemplating a trip there more than a few weeks ahead to book every flight and hotel as fully refundable, and I'd be watching the news every day. Things are changing quickly in our world.

I was in the Baltics last spring and I'm going back this spring.

I never felt unsafe. If you didn't know there was a war going on nearby, you wouldn't have known from the way the people acted.

There was only one surprise somewhat related to the war. I ran into a US Army officer--in uniform--in the elevator of my hotel in Vilnius. It seems there's a NATO base just outside the city.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are members of NATO.

Ukraine is not.

In theory, Putin should be more wary of attacking them than he was of invading Ukraine, especially after he got away with invasion of Crimea.

I concur with the advice, 'make only refundable reservations'

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are members of NATO.

Ukraine is not.

Yes, both statements are very true.

However, one would need to be not paying attention if you fail to question exactly how committed some NATO members now are to the alliance, and specifically how seriously they take Article 5 ("an attack on one is an attack on all"), with the longstanding stated policy (and expectation) that other NATO members would respond to defend any of its members. The question one needs to ask is, how likely do you think it is that, going forward (say, next summer), if the Russians attack a NATO member, to what extent (if any) are key alliance members committed to defending them?

Article 5 has only been invoked once - following the 911 terrorist attacks against the USA - and several NATO allies sent troops to fight and die alongside US troops - for years - in military operations that followed (including some that were at best questionable, and undoubtedly unpopular and politically challenging for the leadership of those NATO nations). They were honoring their commitment (with the expectation that others would, too, in the future).

The question is, would the US honor it's article 5 commitments if the Russians rolled tanks into the Baltics. None of us know, but questions like "are we willing to go to war over Vilnius?" are worth pondering.

I've had future trips to Romania and Bulgaria on sticky-notes that I move around my 5-year trip planning calendar. Those are now off to the side (not going to be planned) for the time being. Others will have their own/different readings of the world news and speculation about the likelihood of future events, and that's fine. If nothing else, I've come to accept that the world can change in fundamental ways very, very quickly. We'll see.

I never felt unsafe. If you didn't know there was a war going on
nearby, you wouldn't have known from the way the people acted.

I am as guilty as the next for saying .... or thinking of saying before I catch myself .... that I felt perfectly safe. So not picking on any of the posts above. Still, many victims of violent crime felt safe up until ............

I was in a different country in January. Life looked normal. Everything was open, lots of traffic on the streets, people walking the sidewalks like they always have. Looks can be deceiving, because I was in Kyiv. Even when the sirens went off in the late evening and early morning, and everyone made their way to the shelters and inner hallways it was so routine that it appeared “normal”.

I understood, maybe incorrectly, that the question was asked in the context of the last 30 days or so. In that case it’s a totally different world than 3 months ago.

I would not count on NATO to prevent the Baltics from attempted “annexation” and their actions of the last couple of years, escalated in the last few months, gives an indication that they are not counting on their membership in NATO being a guarantee.

I would also jump at the opportunity to go to the Baltics right now. I am pretty certain there will be early warning signs … I am guessing weeks if not months in advance. It might be a publicity war like the current one with Ukraine. In which case maybe months until a forced surrender. Or nothing at all. Everything is a guess.

But, sure, refundable hotel rooms. But I won’t pay for that on an international flight (I am cheap and once I decide to go, I am going) so I would do something like fly into Milan and out of Rome and if things are bad in the Baltics I do Italy. If things are good in the Baltics I spend a little on a Ryan Air Flight to the Baltics and back to Rome.

I would think you should be more concerned visiting Ireland, Austria, Cyprus or Malta. None of those four countries are in NATO and if attacked by Russia no other European country is obligated to help.

No one knows what the future is going to bring. I felt safe in the Baltics last year and I'm looking forward to returning in a couple of months. Of course, if there are problems I will probably cancel my trip. But should I not plan to go because of ....what if?

You could come up with enough "what if's" to never leave your home. And I can think of a lot of "What if's" more likely to happen internally in America.