The threat levels tend to move between substantial and severe reasonably regularly.
The decision to change it is not a political decision. It is made by JTAC, the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre and will have been based on a wide range of intelligence and advice.
The situation is slightly more complicated than usual due to the range of potential threats and the likely actions of certain states, not helped by the situation in the Middle East.
What doesn’t get explained is that the threat isn’t necessarily imminent. From memory I think Severe means a potential threat in the next few months. If the level is Critical it is a likely threat in the near future. That is the only threat level I would personally worry about. It tends to get raised to that if there is very specific intelligence or an actual event and doesn’t stay at that level for very long.
In all honesty I’m not sure that being ‘alert to your surroundings’ is that helpful for the average tourist. If you don’t know what is usual what are you being alert to?
Just go about your trip as you normally would. If the police tell you to do somethIng, do it and don’t leave your possessions lying around.