Storm Ciaran in the UK

It's a good job I had my chimney repointed, living on a coastal hill it's going to take the brunt of the winds.

The UK is certainly getting hammered with the weather this autumn. Do the storms originate in the North Atlantic and move east, or do they come down from the arctic region?

So far this year they all have been Atlantic storms. Although it does happen it would not be usual for an Arctic storm to affect anywhere except Scotland.

It is probably tied in with the active hurricane season in the Caribbean.

Do the storms originate in the North Atlantic and move east, or do they come down from the arctic region?

Yes, pretty much all of our autumn storms originate in the Atlantic and are often linked to storms that develop in the South Atlantic

the storms are all on a conveyor belt and the belt just keeps looping around - no end in sight.

The Continent is getting clobbered too - Denmark, the Baltics, Germany, France

There is already talk of potential for Storm Debi for some time at the weekend although Ciarán really needs to go through first to be really sure.

The track of Ciarán which earlier this week was seeming to be likely to be heading further south is now right back in the English Channel on the latest runs.

I have just returned from a week in a villa near Lucca in Tuscany. For several days last week we were hit with biblical amounts of rain and there was plenty of local flooding, and it's continuing.

On checking BBC weather it is now forecast to reach Cornwall Tuesday by mid-day and then east Devon/Somerset/south Wales by 15:00.
Edit: Sorry that is just a bit of rain. It looks like Ciarán will reach the SW Thursday

Yes there are actually 2 low pressure systems to come before Ciarán!

The main driver is the enhanced jet stream stoked up by the large temperature gradient at present over North America.

The big storm is now Wednesday to Friday. Just heard from someone tonight who was going to the Isles of Scilly on the Scillonian ship on Friday. That sailing, plus the Wednesday and Thursday sailings is now retimed to Tuesday (tomorrow) morning.

Wednesday and Thursday are now forecast as sustained wind speeds of 60mph + in the West Country, and 40mph + until lunchtime on Friday. Plus the rain.

This website will show you the storms and you can click forward in time to see who & when they will hit:>
https://www.windy.com/-Clouds-clouds?clouds,47.562,-20.171,5

BBC weather update on the expected track of the storm- https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/67274353

There is now also a thread for the impact of this storm in France, so the title of this thread has been updated- https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/france/storm-ciara-in-france

GWR Changes- Wednesday 1st November
Due to the weather conditions forecast for the south west on Wednesday evening, we are advising passengers not to travel in Cornwall from 20:00 until at least 12:00 on Thursday 2nd November. No trains or replacement bus services will operate west of St Austell towards Penzance, inclusive of branch lines during this time. To help people make their journey, those with tickets for Wednesday evening will be able to travel earlier in the day.

South Western Railway Changes-
To keep services operating safely, we will be running an amended timetable on parts of the South Coast and in the West of England on Thursday 2nd November:

Services between London Waterloo and Weymouth will terminate at Bournemouth, with an hourly service operating between Bournemouth and Weymouth
Services between London Waterloo and Salisbury will run hourly
Services between Salisbury and Exeter St David's will run every two hours
Services from Portsmouth Harbour to London Waterloo via Basingstoke will be altered after Basingstoke, calling at Woking and London Waterloo only
Services between Brockenhurst and Lymington Pier will be suspended
Island Line services will run hourly between Shanklin and Ryde St John, with buses replacing trains between Ryde St John and Ryde Pier Head

Transport for Wales are expecting disruption to all services west of Swansea.

All services to Kent and Sussex are expecting to be disrupted with a 50mph speed restriction on the Sussex Coast.

Weather is showery but quiet here in London. Temperatures have come up significantly from what they were last night. Waiting to see how much impact the storm has here in the south east.

Well we know that the impact in London itself is going to be massively different to 50 or 60 miles away on the coast.
On the French post it is noted that Guernsey (and I read, Jersey) have issued stay at home orders to everyone. Also all of Condor's fast craft sailings are cancelled until 7 November - the conventional ships will attempt to sail if possible.
Jersey airport is also closed for all scheduled flights.

Yep that is us! We are battening down the hatches.... right in the path of it... force 10 with a spring tide tonight, peoles flood defences will be out on the coasts.

Even in London wind gusts of up to 60 mph are currently predicted in the latest Met Office UKV model for Thursday afternoon. Not exceptional but still significant. Much higher along the S/SW coast & Channel Islands.

I've had enough of these. There is now another in the wings. Good grief.

GWR

Due to forecasted severe weather:
Impact:

Train services running across the whole Great Western Railway network may be revised. Disruption is expected until the end of the day on 03/11/23.

Customer Advice:

Over the next few days, heavy rain and strong winds are forecast across parts of the GWR network as Storm Ciaran passes over the UK.

Wednesday 1st November
Due to the weather conditions forecast for the south west on Wednesday evening, we are advising passengers not to travel in Cornwall from 20:00 until at least 12:00 on Thursday 2nd November. No trains or replacement bus services will operate west of St Austell towards Penzance, inclusive of branch lines during this time. To help people make their journey, those with tickets for Wednesday evening will be able to travel earlier in the day.

Thursday 2nd November
Additionally, services may be subject to short notice cancellation or alteration across the GWR network on Thursday 2nd November, as Storm Ciaran is forecast to bring more rain and strong winds. Journey times could be significantly longer. Please check your entire journey before setting out. We will update this page with the latest information across the network throughout the day.

The storm will also affect the road network, with poor road conditions and possible closures likely impacting the provision of rail replacement transport.

To help customers make their journey, tickets dated Thursday 2nd November can be used on Wednesday 1st or Friday 3rd November, if you are able to make your journey at another time.

The GWR travel advice was strengthened in late afternoon for Wednesday evening due to the deteriorating forecast-

Please be advised that from 2000hrs this evening of 01/11/2023, all rail services and road transport will be suspended between St Austell and Penzance (inclusive of Falmouth and St Ives branch-lines). Customers travelling to/from any stations between St Austell and Penzance are advised to NOT TRAVEL this evening. This is in response to the very high winds and rainfall expected from storm Ciaran. To clarify this means that ALL planned rail and road GWR services between St Austell and Penzance will need to have finished their journeys by 2000hrs. This includes the planned road transport between St Austell and St Erth. If travelling from the Plymouth direction down towards St Austell, please be advised there will be no onward travel available at St Austell tonight.

This means the last planned road transport services (as part of the planned closure between St Austell and Newquay) in the aforementioned area this evening will be:
18:07 Penzance St Austell.
18:25 Penzance St Austell.

17:35 St Austell Penzance.

In addition to this, rail services that continue to operate between Taunton and St Austell will be subject to adverse weather speed restrictions imposed by Network Rail. There will also be a reduced service between Exeter St Davids and Plymouth this evening.