Rail Experts, I need your help!

Not a good travelling day unfortunately as the line is closed between Edinburgh and Newcastle https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/engineering-works/newcastle-and-edinburgh-20230930/

It's either a bus replacement between Edinburgh and Newcastle, or a train from Edinburgh via Carlisle then along the Tyne Valley to Newcastle before heading south. I would take the train via Carlisle.

The through trains are the ones which are diverted via Carlisle - those shown with no change or bus symbol like The 0957 train.
The ones with a bus are bus from Berwick to Newcastle. The best coastal scenery is North of Berwick anyway. But South of there the A1 highway is well inland.
Time wise there is little between the two routes.
I am seeing fares of around £50 for most trains- both the ones with a bus transfer and the diverted ones via Carlisle, which is around £140 for 4 people with 2T. If you can also see those fares, book now, if not then something weird is happening.
It is unclear why Avanti fares are so high.

It's either a bus replacement between Edinburgh and Newcastle, or a train from Edinburgh via Carlisle then along the Tyne Valley to Newcastle before heading south. I would take the train via Carlisle.
The ones with a bus are bus from Berwick to Newcastle. The best coastal scenery is North of Berwick anyway. But South of there the A1 highway is well inland.

How can I tell if the bus is from Edinburgh to Newcastle, or from Berwick to Newcastle? Would they put us on a train Edinburgh-Berwick, moves us to a bus, then back onto a train at Newcastle?

There is another option.....fly. As of today, there are 31 flights available to all the major London airports.

Prices start at £21 and take less than 90 minutes.

There is another option.....fly. As of today, there are 31 flights available to all the major London airports.

Prices start at £21 and take less than 90 minutes.

Hmm, I hadn't thought of that. But I'm not seeing anything near that price from my end. Are those on a regional airline? What site should I search, because British Airways and Travelocity both show much higher.

Use Google Flights.

It will show you which airlines fly that route and to which airport. There are five London airports. The most expensive flights will be on BA to Heathrow.

Buy direct from the airline.

The answer to your train question is that if you click on each train it should show the itinerary, the stopping pattern.
At the least it will say 0, 1 or 2 changes. 0 is the diverted train, 1 would be bus
3 hours Edinburgh to Newcastle, 2 is train to Berwick, bus 90 minutes to Newcastle.
National Rail is simply wrong in saying bus Edinburgh to Newcastle. On each weekend in September the vast majority of trains are the shorter bus ride from Berwick.
It is all very slick. An 8 minute change at Berwick to buses outside the station door, to the main entrance at NCL then straight onto a waiting train at NCL.

Air Fare of £21 is before baggage fees, seat choice fees and transport at each end. Add those on and it becomes far closer to, if not more than the train.

I just checked on flights for the next Saturday...many times more than 21.

While you do miss the "scenery" of the train, the plane is no changes. (Much of the best scenery on this route is when you're detoured to the bus.)

If it was a "normal" day, I'd suggest taking the train. You get on in Edinburgh and get off in London. (I've done that route many times.) But with train and bus and train, and who knows what else, in this case I'd lean towards flying.

I've experienced "rail replacement" bus services and I now avoid them when I can. Others don't mind. (In my case, buses were held up in traffic and the train didn't wait. We were told to take a later one.)

Sometimes a few pounds more for convenience is worth it.

If you're not sure which airport to fly to, let us know where you are staying in London and we can help.

Your choice.

You say that Avanti trains are available but that they go through Birmingham, as if that rules out that route on scenic grounds. If I was to consider whether the west coast or east coast route was the best from England I would marginally say the west coast. From either Glasgow or Edinburgh the scenery is good to excellent all the way down to Preston (Southern Uplands and edge of Lake District and Pennines) and then is perfectly nice for the majority of the route into London. The east coast route is only really scenic north of Newcastle and that's the bit that is shut on 1st October. The rest of the route, especially south of York is pretty tedious for scenery in my view.

On a normal day wanting to get from Edinburgh to London it would still make sense to take the east coast route as it's quicker but that won't be the case on 1/10. You also don't have to take the route via Birmingham. I can see trains at 10.51 and 12.51 with a change at Crewe (very simple, almost certainly same platform) for £53.45 with a railcard. I doubt that you could beat that with a plane, once you have added in the extra luggage costs etc. The £21 flight is the RyanAir basic cost for a flight at 5.45am, so getting up and out to the airport at at least 3am. Add on the extras you will need plus travel out to EDI and in from Stansted and you will be well over £53 as well as far more hassle than the train.

The answer to your train question is that if you click on each train it should show the itinerary, the stopping pattern.
At the least it will say 0, 1 or 2 changes. 0 is the diverted train, 1 would be bus
3 hours Edinburgh to Newcastle, 2 is train to Berwick, bus 90 minutes to Newcastle.
National Rail is simply wrong in saying bus Edinburgh to Newcastle. On each weekend in September the vast majority of trains are the shorter bus ride from Berwick.
It is all very slick. An 8 minute change at Berwick to buses outside the station door, to the main entrance at NCL then straight onto a waiting train at NCL.

That's so odd that the website has it as bus the whole way between Edinburgh and Newcastle. Looking more closely, the 0855 and the 0902 show bus/train, but the 1105 shows bus/bus/train.
You know your stuff, so I'm going with the bus option on one of the earlier routes. Any reason to choose LNER vs LUMO? LUMO looks like it takes a lot longer to get to Newcastle, so I'm thinking LNER would be preferred? (comparing the 0855 with the 0902)

Lumo and LNER both use the same train types. But LUMO once you are on the train use 5 car trains, and only a handful a day. LNER run frequent 9 car trains. LNER have a food car, LUMO you pre-order food. LUMO have fewer stops So are faster. There has been a recent rail accident inquiry into LUMO going too fast and having a near derailment, due to poor training.

Apart from that accident horses for courses. Personal choice. Lumo are normally cheaper.

Although not shown the LUMO buses should be stopping also at Morpeth, hence the longer time, and some LNER also at Berwick and Alnmouth, hence the varying times.

So the 2 hours 45 minute buses are the real non stops. Others have varying intermediate stops.

They've changed the timings from from last time I looked. They must now have added in a second set of work North of Berwick. Yesterday it was as stated.

I believe Lumo are running buses all the way between Newcastle and Edinburgh. Cuts down on changes but adds to the journey time.

In terms of LNER vs Lumo, LNER trains have more seats, more tables, more food options and have First Class available, but are usually more expensive. Lumo is usually cheaper, however they have restrictions on the size and amount of baggage you can take onboard so you’d need to check to see if your baggage conforms with that.

As others have said I honestly wouldn’t rule out flying on a day like this. Budget carriers Easyjet and Ryanair fly from Edinburgh to Stansted and/or Gatwick airports, which have direct rail connections to central London. You don’t get the Northumberland scenery but it’s much less enjoyable through the window of a replacement bus.

I am looking further into this and there are definitely two work sites - one south of Berwick on Tweed, and a second one not far south of Edinburgh as North Berwick trains are also bus replacements.
So that's why suddenly there are no trains at all to Berwick on Tweed.
It's the same story on 8 October alsl.
Personally I would take the 0957 through diverted train. The Tyne valley scenery is also worth seeing.

Personally I would take the 0957 through diverted train. The Tyne valley scenery is also worth seeing.

That does seem the best, I wish it wasn't such a cost difference, but, ah well.

Thanks to everyone for all the help, it really is appreciated.