Northern Rail or LNER for York to Cardiff

From Manchester to Cardiff the operator is Transport for Wales, not Northern Rail.
From York to Manchester, while Northern do run trains, TransPennine Express run a faster, more frequent service. However TPE are very unreliable with long daily cancellation lists.
The problem with the Manchester to Cardiff trains is that they suffer from severe overcrowding and are randomly short 2 or 3 coach trains. Often they take bookings for a 3 coach train then use a 2 coach one. Long personal experience there.
TfW have just introduced new 4 coach trains on certain services, I have the list somewhere of which ones. That should finally start to cure the problem, but too soon to know yet.
Another possible route is Cross Country trains from York changing at Birmingham New Street.
If the OP prefers the cross London route and doesn't mind the transfer then it is probably the most reliable and comfortable.

You may enjoy this you tube channel as you anticipate your journey.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCH6Z617CvFBjrHYyYXTODdA

Are you going to York from London and are you going from Cardiff to London? If so, would you like to go on a different route so that you are not going back & fore to London?

The quickest and easiest option is to go from York to Bristol Parkway and then a same platform change for a train to Cardiff (which has come from London). Doing it this way, the trip can be done for around 4 hours 25 minutes but to reduce the expense and if later going to go from Cardiff to London, I would buy a Bristol Parkway to Cardiff Anytime return for about £13. That means that when you go back to London, the bit between Cardiff and Bristol Parkway is already covered and you then need a one way ticket from BPW to London (PAD) but you stay on the same train throughout. This is one route where splitting the ticket reduces the fare on the Cross Country Train between York & Bristol Parkway / Cardiff. This site tells you the splits:> https://www.traintickets.com/?/

If you were to buy a through one way ticket from York to Cardiff, it will cost £144.80 but you don’t want to pay that do you? I have a way of getting the fare down to £48.80 but it involves a longer route. As mentioned above, the trains on the Manchester to Cardiff route can be only 2 or 3 coaches but better trains are being introduced. The 12.30 from Manchester (Piccadilly) is one service already operating with one of these longer trains and it arrives in Cardiff at 15.44.

Go to >https://www.nationalrail.co.uk and put in for York to Manchester Piccadilly (MAN) in about 4 weeks from now and up will come some options using Trans Pennine Express. They will tell you to change at Manchester Victoria for the short hop to Piccadilly. You should see prices of £12.80 and £28.70 for this 2 hour trip. These are advance fares for those specific trains plus the link into Piccadilly from Victoria. note the timings that would allow you to catch the *12.30 from MAN to Cardiff. Then put in for the 12.30 MAN > CDF and you should get a price of £36 Advance booking that train. If you did go ahead and book these trains and the first one failed to get you into MAN on time - the next one to Cardiff will be in 1 hour. RETAIN the ticket for the first leg so you can get compensation from TPE and show it to Transport for Wales staff on the train as proof of failed connection (unlikely). Do not put it into any gate machine as it will be gobbled up. Show it to staff and say you need to retain the ticket - assuming something goes wrong. The Cardiff train from MAN usually goes from Platform 10.

*You may be able to upgrade to 1st class which has a restaurant service on this train:> https://tfw.wales/ways-to-travel/rail/food-and-drink/first-class-dining/first-class

All prices quoted do not include discount for Railcard.

Note that the above advice about changing between Manchester Victoria and Piccadilly is not correct.
Something is wrong with the journey planners for the chosen date in the example- it looks as if TPE are awaiting confirmation of timetables from Network Rail or there may be engineering work on the Ordsall Chord, but there is an hourly direct train from York to Picc (continues to the airport) at around 20 minutes past each hour and takes 90 minutes to Picc. It calls first at Manchester Victoria then uses the (relatively) new curve of track to Oxford Road and Picc (called the Ordsall Chord).
This shows yet again the problem of using journey planners without knowing the network.
If you look in April the through trains are there again which does suggest that it is engineering work.
The station change is not one you would want to make on foot with luggage. Although not stated on the journey planners (surprise, surprise) you would use either the tram or the free inter station bus.

Thank you for all the information. Its defiantly a lot to take in and decide what to do.
I don't think I mentioned that my trip would be on a Saturday, if that makes any difference. How are the crowds on a Saturday?
The trip will be from York to Cardiff and then London a few days later.
If I do the Bristol Parkway, split what train line does that run? The anytime return ticket sounds great, but can I reserve a seat with that ticket?
With the Bristol Parkway split option, would I be going on one of the less reliable lines?

What is most important to me in order is reliability, cost, and comfort, and I want a window seat as this will be my first and possibly last time in the area.

Thank You,
Mark

I've just been doing some digging. The reason for the confusion over the Manchester trains from 11 March to 5 April is that there is engineering work at Stalybridge (East of Manchester), which means diverted trains and longer journey times between Leeds and Manchester, which is of general interest beyond this OP's question.
Buses are being run from Huddersfield to Man Pic and to the airport (separate buses) but those bus times are not yet in the national system.
The result is very poor quality and misleading information.

Saturdays can be interesting due to football matches anywhere. For instance LNER have announced that all trains from Newcastle to London are full this next weekend on both days due to a football match, with no further bookings being taken and no turn up and go tickets available. That is unique, due to a cup final in London. I can't recall that ever happening before.
The Bristol route is on Cross Country to Bristol, then Great Western.
It's the same train as I suggested doing a Birmingham change, as that train goes on to the West Country.
The Cross Country trains are 4 or 5 car trains in the main, which leaves little spare capacity for major crowds for events (sporting or otherwise). That is why I dismissed that route nem com. The Birmingham to Cardiff direct are 2 car trains on Cross Country, sometimes 3.
Now I know Mark is travelling on a Saturday and hearing his priorities loud and very clear I am certain that via London suits his personal requirements best. It may not suit everyone, but does him. I don't believe It's the right day to be creative.
It's not my money so is easy to say, but on this occassion, and I rarely say this, on the LNER leg he may like to splurge and buy a 1st class advance ticket at about £80, for further insurance against unusual crowds on the train. He can choose an individual window seat in 1st class as those coaches are in a 1 + 2 configuration.
PS- yes you can book a seat on any anytime return, but the computer may play awkward with you and require you to change seats at Bristol Parkway.

Many thanks isn31c for clarifying the situation at Manchester. I always thought that a direct TPE services linked York with Man Piccadilly so it looks like that will be the case in May when the OP makes the journey. I am also not so sure that the restaurant service will be available on Saturdays if using the 12.30 from MAN > CDF.

If going via London, it should work out cheaper to split the tickets at London and note that it is not just LNER who operate between York & London (Kings Cross) but also Grand Central. London (Paddington) to Cardiff will be with GWR. Both LNER & GWR will be the same type of trains = Class 800 series Hitachi Expresses running on overhead electricity - max speed 125 mph.

If you go from York direct to Bristol Parkway it will be with Cross Country Trains and you will probably be on a Voyager Train = a diesel train with max speed of 125 mph. The 35 minutes or so between Bristol Parkway and Cardiff will be on the Class 800 GWR Inter City Express trains running on overhead electricity.

If you want to see the type of train running a particular service today, click the following link, fill in the location box and click on the train(s). Up will come a picture of the train along with the number of coaches. The odds are that you will have the same type of train. Note that some trains might be short but other trains will be on the same route at different places. Be sure to check for Saturdays as well.
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/

On the following link - the middle photo is a Cross Country Voyager:>https://www.crosscountrytrains.co.uk
You tube video of Voyager.

All trains on any route will have unreserved coaches where you just walk on and pick a seat - if available. I usually don’t book seats and just walk on and choose where to sit but that can be a problem if a service is busy. Usually, travelling in the middle of the day is not a problem. It’s not just sporting event to look out for but also music events. Beyonce is doing the stadium in Cardiff on Wed 17 May
so services will be rammed and expensive - as will the hotels. If you see a hike in the rail fares for a particular date, it is because they know something is on and demand will be high - that is to suppress demand from those who are not interested in the event and make profit from the fans..

Thank you so much. With all the different train companies and resellers, it's hard to know who is selling somebody else's ticket and who is the real carrier. Now I know I have more choices. For simplicity's sake, I am leaning towards going through London and taking the tube between stations. It just sounds more stable and maybe not as crowded. Luckily I will be heading to Cardiff on the 20th. A full 3 days after the concert. Hopefully, nothing big is playing in town. Do I need to worry about the strikes? Is there a carrier less likely to be affected?

Thanks,
Mark

Any train operator sells everyone else's tickets at the same price and can book your seats. LNER will allow you to choose your seat position on Great Western- window or aisle/airline style or round a table/quiet coach or not/power socket available/near the restroom (!). Just book all your tickets through LNER. Keeps it really simple. If you opt for physical tickets (rather than e-ticket or the app) they can ALL be collected at York or any other station in the UK.
On no account use a 3rd party (anyone who is not a train company).
Keep an eye on this Forum for strikes. Nigel will give you at least 14 days notice when/if they are announced. All operators are affected, but LNER and Great Western have run skeletal services on most strike days so far. The other companies mentioned above have just shut down on strike days.
If worse comes to worse all fare types (including Advance) are refundable if no viable service is available so you will not lose money.
There is a plan B using National Express coaches for this whole itinerary so you will not get stuck. That bridge can be crossed as, when and if it happens.

As mentioned above, all train companies can sell tickets for anyone else’s trains and these are most likely to all be at the same price. However, I disagree with the suggestion above that you should not use a split ticket website as this can dramatically reduce the price that you pay. Had I not been correct in suggesting split ticket websites, I am sure that Nigel (who worked on the railways) would have chipped in by now and corrected me.

In the event of strikes, they will do everything possible to run some sort of service on the East Coast Mainline = Edinburgh > York > London and the Great Western Mainline between London & Cardiff / Bristol. .

Neither the LNER or GWR have yet loaded their cheapest Advance (specific train) fares for May 20th. If it says not available or high fares are loading, you are not seeing the lower fares that will be available - normally around 10 weeks out. Another company called Grand Central also operate between York and kings Cross and they may undercut LNER. I would also suggest you book one ticket from York to Paddington as that will include the underground in London - just feed it into the ticket gate slot. As a guide, you should be able to get from York to Paddington for around £35 and from Paddington to Cardiff for £37.60. (Check out earlier dares than your planned 20 May and you will see what I mean).

You could buy the through ticket via London but that will cost more. If you arrived at Paddington late because the train from York was late and have to catch a later GWR train - show the ticket from York to the train manager on the GWR train (who will be at the rear). You may want to give yourself plenty of time for the switch in London and could perhaps spend some time in the cafe at Paddington station.

Nice tip about booking to Paddington instead of Kings Cross, which will add the tube fare. I didn't see that before, and it is hard to see on the screen at the bottom in little letters, even when looking for it.
I plan to give myself about an hour between stations. Is that enough? I don't know how often these trains are late.
I have to thank this community for all your help.

I am also taking a train from Edinburgh to York and then Cardiff back to London, but both seem straightforward compared to the York to Cardiff trip.

Thanks again,
Mark for the U.S.

The MCT between Kings Cross and Paddington is 45 minutes, so that is OK.
Those times used to be published, but they are now buried in the journey planners.
I have just checked a Peterborough to Reading journey to double check my memory (which is the same KC to Pad connection) and that permits 47 minutes, platform to platform. Personally I try to allow myself 90 minutes between any 2 stations. I'd rather hang around a bit rather than be hyper ventilating from racing around.
Yes the other two journeys are easy peasy.
If you are over 60, if, invest in a senior railcard beforehand on line to get 1/3 discount on all fares. With these other two journeys as well it will repay the £30 cost.
If you're younger just ignore me.

Ok, 90 minutes it is. I will not ignore the advice of someone who knows and considering 30-45 minutes extra wait could save me from a huge headache on what will be a great holiday.

Not quite 60, but closer to 60 than 50. I did sign up for emails from LNER and got £5 off my next trip.

Thanks to all of you, and who knows I might come across you on the train in May.

Mark