Maybe a paranoid question

It is very very unlikely that you would not be able to get in the first or second train to arrive. The journey is only 20 minutes including walking in and out at each end so setting off at 8 you have plenty of wiggle room, several trains worth.

You can usually increase your chances of space by moving to the front or back of the platform, depending where you come out on to it.

It's the rush hour, so stations and trains are likely to be very crowded.
For comfort, consider a cab, although the traffic will also be bad!

Thanks, John and Lin. So you're saying the first or second train will likely be too full to get on? The next trains are at 0818 and 0828, so that would be cutting it pretty close.

And traffic will be bad so Uber may not be a good idea. It's about a 3-mile walk. Hope we don't have to consider that lol.

Maybe I should cancel our hotel near Paddington and get one near Victoria.

Sorry - I see I have mistyped! My first sentence should say that you would be very unlucky NOT to get on the first or second train. I'll change it.

Setting off at 8am you should be fine, although as you point out there will be plenty of people. as you're doing a tour I assume that you won't have all your luggage with you?

The train has only started from the previous stop at Edgware Road (circle line) so, no it really shouldn't be too busy, and you could always start by going one stop in the wrong direction.
This little bunny would probably take the bus 36 instead, from the stop opposite the new Premier Inn, at the top of the Elizabeth Line lifts. IME most people from Paddington board that bus at the next stop, round the corner.

John, just two carry-on rollers. Thanks again. I'll rest easy.

isn31c, appreciate your help.

I would just leave earlier. Around 7:30 maybe. Are you taking a Rabbie’s tour? If so, which one?

Hi Carrie: Yes. Wales 5-day.

There's a 0738 so we will go with that.

Enjoy the tour. That one is on my wish list.

I can’t remember if you have taken a multiday tour with them before. I did a 3-day tour with them earlier this year in Ireland and I loved it. It’s really a nice balance of time with the group and driver/guide and time on your own.

If I have to take the tube during rush hour, I find that if I plan to travel in the end cars of the underground trains they tend to be less crowded.

Surface travel via taxi or Uber will be slow at that time.

At Paddington District / Circle platforms there is a distinct tendency always for people to congregate close to the stairs. Pass instead along the platform to the left.

You don't get much warning on the indicator which train is coming first as it is whatever is dispatched from Edgware Road.

When this was a regular journey of mine around that time of day I would often take the 36 bus instead but that was without luggage.

I suggest downloading the CityMapper app - not only does it suggest the best routes (including buses and taxi), but it also tells you which cars are likely to be the least crowded (noted below your chosen route by "front," "middle," "back"). The app will also note walking times and sometimes those are shorter than taking the tube.

I would think driving in London would or could be difficult. You could easily get caught in traffic that isn't moving or trucks that block the road, etc

Maybe because I’m left handed but in decades of travel on the tube I always turn left when I enter the station platform area. I stroll to nearly the end and tend to favor the 2nd to last carriage when the train arrives.

If it’s commuter time I nearly always find a seat even with a roll on. In recent years the grey hair helps.

If you are stressed about it all go earlier…7am instead of 8am. Then grab a coffee and a nosh before meeting up for the tour. Black Sheep coffee is good. Or if you must the Evil Empire of Starbucks is inside the station.

John: Got it. Thanks.

CL, appreciate that; I downloaded the app. Interestingly it shows no problem during a workday morning next week. If the app doesn't show overcrowding until the day of then it wouldn't be of much use because it's too late.

I wonder what someone would do if they had to be at work on time? I suppose they would just have to jam themselves in there. Let's say the 0738 carriages were too full. Well, the subsequent ones would likely be even worse.

Claudia, good advice. I'd say I'm low-medium stressed, so hopefully 0738 will work OK. Yes, we'll go down the steps and move left.

CL, appreciate that; I downloaded the app. Interestingly it shows no
problem during a workday morning next week. If the app doesn't show
overcrowding until the day of then it wouldn't be of much use because
it's too late.

The app provides real time updates, and it can't predict the future (except for scheduled closures). Check it around 6:45 to see if there are any general issues on the Circle line itself (if there are, it will offer alternative routes). There is a Circle line train about every 10 minutes between Paddington and Victoria tube stations. As suggested, leave early and you should be fine.
https://tfl.gov.uk/tube/timetable/circle?FromId=940GZZLUPAC&fromText=Paddington+Underground+Station&toText=Victoria+Underground+Station&ToId=940GZZLUVIC&SelectedTime=7

Next Wednesday is the 3rd. Is that your travel day? If so, you will be before the Tube strikes which start on Friday the 5th.

If you are the next week, you may want to take the temperature of the strikes and plan accordingly.

just because one car in the train is very full that doesn't necessarily mean that the ones at the ends are too.

I quite often walk between the two. Takes about 40 minutes.

If you are a commuter you don't stand on ceremony, you get on the train, full stop.
But also a commuter will not hesitate to catch a bus, which is every 8 minutes or so.
But post Covid it also varies. Monday and Friday being the quieter days.

But the whole point is that every Paddington to Victoria anticlockwise train is a Circle Line which has started at Edgware Road. That simply isn't a busy station, so any train will arrive at Paddington almost empty. So it is just a case of being assertive at Paddington.
Now if you take a clockwise Circle line to Victoria via Liverpool Street that will be busy as it started at Hammersmith, and takes twice as long.

At Victoria go upstairs in the Mall to the food court or the Sainsbury's store for a take out breakfast meal deal. There are normally even hot options there.
Use the free restrooms in the Food Court of the mall.
Go out the back door of the Mall, by Sainsburys, cross the street and the Green Line hell hole (sorry Coach Station) where Rabbies leave from is facing you.
Don't get there too soon, it's a pretty grim place, not like Victoria Coach Station. If you were leaving from VCS I would say to go and wait in the Eccleston Yards, a nice place to get breakfast, but that's a bit silly from the Green Line

You folks are worth your weight in gold and have given me a boost of confidence.

I think we'll stick with the 0738 or 0748 departure as the odds of Paddington being overcrowded are slim. I'm not a shrinking violet so we'll get in there.

Mike, what Sam said. I loved The Resident Victoria and the location was absolutely perfect. Here's a snippet from my trip report that talks about it:

Getting from Heathrow to the hotel:
The bus was my first option, as it would have gone directly to Victoria Coach Station without any transfers, but at the last minute, I decided to take the Piccadilly Line instead. It was super easy, and we only had one quick change where we got off the Piccadilly Line at Barons Court station, turned around and walked 5 feet across to the District Line train, hopped on that and were soon at Victoria Station. From there, it was a quick 5 minute walk to our hotel, The Resident Victoria.

THE RESIDENT VICTORIA: I cannot say enough nice things about this hotel. I first heard about it from Frank II, and found it intriguing. At that time (August 2024), they were having a sale, so I booked it, paying around £215 per night for a room with 3 beds. This included the member's (free) discount of 15% off the total price. We arrived around 10 am so we couldn’t check in yet, but were able to drop off our luggage. And because I was a member, I could check in early at 1 pm. I was very happy to hear this! Members can also check out a bit later as well; 12 noon instead of 11 am. The staff took our luggage, checked us in, and later when we came back, we found out that the luggage was already been placed in our room. Such a nice service.

I found a complimentary bottle of wine in the room, along with snacks for the kids, plus a personal handwritten note from the hotel staff welcoming us. The room was spotlessly clean with a sink, dishes, microwave, a Nespresso coffee maker, an electric water heater, and a small fridge, with coffee and tea available. Each evening, the hotel hosted a social hour for guests between 6-7pm, with complimentary wine and snacks. I really enjoyed this; not just because I met some interesting people, but it gave me a bit of a break from the kids.

The location was one of the best things about this place. It was a 7-8 minute walk to Victoria Station and/or Victoria Coach Station, a 5 minute walk to the newer Victoria Underground Station (Cardinal Place), which serves 3 lines (District, Circle and Victoria), and close to many sights (Buckingham Palace was only a few blocks away). More importantly, there were loads of restaurants, cafes, take-away places and groceries within a 5 minute walk, yet the hotel itself sits on a quiet side street with barely any noise.

One caveat is that they do not offer breakfast, but honestly, I didn’t miss it. My grandkids loved going to nearby Gail's every morning for their pain au chocolat or cheese croissant. Plus there was Pret a Manger for take-away, and Wagamama and Bill's for other meals. They even went to a movie one afternoon at a nearby theatre. They especially loved finding the Amorino Gelato place a few blocks away. There were numerous shopping options nearby, and we were minutes away from Westminster Abbey and many other historic sites. I can't say enough good things about this hotel and this location, and will definitely stay here again.

I'm not sure when you will be in London, but, if you do plan on staying at the Resident Victoria, book sooner than later. Its sister Hotel, the Resident Kensington, is closing next month and anyone with reservations at that hotel is being offered similar rooms, at Kensington prices, at the Resident Victoria. (The Resident Victoria usually costs more.)

Thanks, Frank. We're sticking with White House Hotel adjacent to Hyde Park and Paddington. Based upon what the locals mentioned in this thread, it should be no problem taking the Tube from there to Victoria. Plus, I prefer walking around Hyde Park in the evening and love that area. Additionally, we're arriving Sep 2 so a little late to make what appears to be an unnecessary change of hotels.

If I was staying that side of Paddington, as long as it's a fine morning, I would certainly choose to walk the couple of blocks further to Edgware Road to join the train at it's origin station.

isn31c, that sounds good. Only .4 miles or a 10-15 minute walk. Looks a little rainy that morning but we'll play it by ear.

Thanks, buddy.