Hi, Jonathan. I think we are in much the same situation. I am a physician whose organization is now requiring notification of any international travel. If a country is on the CDC's Travel Advisory list on the date of return, an employee will not be allowed to return to work for two weeks. My compensation plan is productivity-based, so no work = no earnings. I'm scheduled to go to Berlin in late April and to go to Bavaria/Austria in mid-May.
I was quite skeptical about the seriousness of COVID-19 until I read the Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission
on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and watched the mission lead's press/video conference regarding the mission. They are worth reviewing (though the written report was reviewed by China prior to being released and reads a bit like a China propaganda piece in places). They do not support the notion that there is a ton of "under the radar" COVID-19 in China that diminishes the serious complication/fatality rates reported there. In addition, the one thing about COVID-19 that is free of speculation is that travel spreads the contagion.
I've gravitated toward an opinion that as a private citizen who is looking out for my fellow private citizens, limiting travel is appropriate at this time. I also have gravitated to the position that as a physician, limiting travel is in the best interest of my patients to minimize my risk to them as a source of infection. Finally, I have gravitated to the position that my company's policy is appropriate and in the best interest of patients, despite being really angry when I first read it.
I'm canceling my B&B reservation for Berlin and will wait until the last second to cancel my (also business class) flight, hoping that the flight gets canceled, and I will be eligible for a refund. I'm monitoring the situation for my May trip, but given the steady march upward of new cases/deaths in Italy (and other countries) and the WHO's recent statement that it is unlikely that warm weather will decrease the spread of the virus, I'll be a little surprised if I take that trip.