Please sign in to post.

Very strong El Niño expected

Travelers planning journeys in El Niño affected areas (e. g. Latin America) shall know that this year a very strong El Niño is expected, beginning late summer / early autumn. Of course this would influence also wider regions.

"El Niño (La Niña) is a climate phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that occurs when sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region remain above (below) the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C) for five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods, after adjusting for overall tropical ocean temperature patterns. (source)"

Latest updates of forecast models for region 3.4 show with > 3°C a very significant expected value above the +0.5°C (source). The average expected value is now over the measured values from strong El Niño season 2015 / 2016 with average +2.7°C.

"As of mid-April 2026, the equatorial Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral state but rapidly transitioning toward El Niño. The latest CCSR/IRI ENSO plume forecast gives a 70% chance of El Niño developing in April–June 2026 versus 30% for continued neutrality, with El Niño remaining dominant through the rest of 2026 at high probabilities of 88–94%. (source)"

Good tool for analyzing the past. Put image slider to 2015-09 and 10:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_monthly/?dm_id=world_60s-60n&var_id=sstanom

Have save travels.

Posted by
8908 posts

Good news for the Rocky Mountains! Here in Colorado, the just-ended winter was exceedingly unsatisfactory due to a stingy La Niña weather pattern. Local businesses suffered, as people cancelled or at least severely cut back on ski trips. We’re anxiously anticipating a super-snowy Super El Niño this coming winter.

Book your 2026/27 ski trips now, and plan on deeep and frequent snow. We just hope that wildfires after the dry winter aren’t going to be a problem in the meantime.

Posted by
8908 posts

Ironically, we’ve been getting a little snow this week, but it’s melting about as fast as it falls, and muddy roads are the result.

Posted by
4772 posts

My post was about future, means September+ of this year.

Posted by
23590 posts

All I want to know is how this will effect snow in the Alps in January 2027 when my next ski trip is planned.

Posted by
8908 posts

My post was about the future, too, although it seems that that future is already here. El Niño hasn’t waited for September in the Colorado Rockies.

Posted by
1212 posts

I am trying to plan a December trip to Campeche and Yucatan states in southern Mexico unless I get persuaded to avoid the area. The Jet stream may drop farther south than normal. The Jet stream may drop into northern Mexico near the border. If the temperature in parts of the Pacific is warmer than normal, more water will evaporate, which will cause more rain in parts of the United states but not necessarily much more rain in southern Mexico, at least according to predictions I just looked up. The exact amount of rainfall is difficult to predict so far in advance. In December, the average temperatures are approximately 65-88 Fahrenheit. For comparison, I went to southern Spain in March 2022: it seemed to be raining at least 1/3 of the time i was outside; temperatures were approximately 43 to 48 when I woke up and up to 55 or more later in the day. One day was supposed to be 69 but it didn't feel that warm. I could survive a normal-strength rainstorm. A hurricane or tornado could be a problem. What do you do if you travel somewhere and a hurricane is coming your way?

Posted by
23590 posts

A December hurricane in the Caribbean is extremely unlikely.

Posted by
4772 posts

Update of forecast (Mid May) by NOAA (source PDF), already high likelihood numbers from April increased:
"El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May - July 2026, before 70%) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026 - February 2027, before 88 - 94%)."

Consequently they reduced expectation for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to "below-normal".

Posted by
10116 posts

We live in coastal Georgia and prior to the last couple of weeks, we had a severe drought Feb, March, April and early May.

Recently, we have had lots of rain.
It is reported in the media that we had La Niña in the Pacific that caused the drought. Also, that starting in May we would move to a full El Niño by July. This would bring rain. It sure did and we needed it.

Posted by
1037 posts

from the BBC's 'The Global Story' podcast: 'How the ‘Godzilla’ El Niño could change the world'
https://www.bbc.com/audio/play/w3ct8m8t
some science, but mostly history

Scientists warn that a “super” El Niño could be on its way which, combined with the effects of human-caused climate change, could result in 2027 being the warmest year on record. Yet El Niño is not just a climate story - throughout history, this recurring weather pattern has helped shape global events, triggering everything from famines and revolutions to impacting the Cold War. In this episode, we speak to historian Peter Frankopan, Professor of Global History at Oxford, to discuss what historical El Niños tell us about what could be coming our way, and how we can collectively prepare.

Posted by
4772 posts

Thank you for sharing the link to the podcast.

The "Godzilla" in the headline seems imo very ridiculous when being aware of the power and global impact of El Niño. A lot of people would be happy if El Niño would be so local and comparably weak as Godzilla. Maybe a good idea for the Japanese movie industry?