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Very strong El Niño expected

Posted by (Schwerin) on

Travelers planning journeys in El Niño affected areas (e. g. Latin America) shall know that this year a very strong El Niño is expected, beginning late summer / early autumn. Of course this would influence also wider regions.

"El Niño (La Niña) is a climate phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that occurs when sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region remain above (below) the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C) for five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods, after adjusting for overall tropical ocean temperature patterns. (source)"

Latest updates of forecast models for region 3.4 show with > 3°C a very significant expected value above the +0.5°C (source). The average expected value is now over the measured values from strong El Niño season 2015 / 2016 with average +2.7°C.

"As of mid-April 2026, the equatorial Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral state but rapidly transitioning toward El Niño. The latest CCSR/IRI ENSO plume forecast gives a 70% chance of El Niño developing in April–June 2026 versus 30% for continued neutrality, with El Niño remaining dominant through the rest of 2026 at high probabilities of 88–94%. (source)"

Good tool for analyzing the past. Put image slider to 2015-09 and 10:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_monthly/?dm_id=world_60s-60n&var_id=sstanom

Have save travels.

Posted by
8881 posts

Good news for the Rocky Mountains! Here in Colorado, the just-ended winter was exceedingly unsatisfactory due to a stingy La Niña weather pattern. Local businesses suffered, as people cancelled or at least severely cut back on ski trips. We’re anxiously anticipating a super-snowy Super El Niño this coming winter.

Book your 2026/27 ski trips now, and plan on deeep and frequent snow. We just hope that wildfires after the dry winter aren’t going to be a problem in the meantime.

Posted by
8881 posts

Ironically, we’ve been getting a little snow this week, but it’s melting about as fast as it falls, and muddy roads are the result.

Posted by
4728 posts

My post was about future, means September+ of this year.

Posted by
23532 posts

All I want to know is how this will effect snow in the Alps in January 2027 when my next ski trip is planned.

Posted by
8881 posts

My post was about the future, too, although it seems that that future is already here. El Niño hasn’t waited for September in the Colorado Rockies.

Posted by
1208 posts

I am trying to plan a December trip to Campeche and Yucatan states in southern Mexico unless I get persuaded to avoid the area. The Jet stream may drop farther south than normal. The Jet stream may drop into northern Mexico near the border. If the temperature in parts of the Pacific is warmer than normal, more water will evaporate, which will cause more rain in parts of the United states but not necessarily much more rain in southern Mexico, at least according to predictions I just looked up. The exact amount of rainfall is difficult to predict so far in advance. In December, the average temperatures are approximately 65-88 Fahrenheit. For comparison, I went to southern Spain in March 2022: it seemed to be raining at least 1/3 of the time i was outside; temperatures were approximately 43 to 48 when I woke up and up to 55 or more later in the day. One day was supposed to be 69 but it didn't feel that warm. I could survive a normal-strength rainstorm. A hurricane or tornado could be a problem. What do you do if you travel somewhere and a hurricane is coming your way?

Posted by
23532 posts

A December hurricane in the Caribbean is extremely unlikely.

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