Aurora Lights Cheat Code?

I haven not seen the Northern Lights, but isn't the calendar a factor as well? I'd check historic rainfall figures just to eliminate some overcast nights.

One of my friends saw the Northern Lights in Iceland when she went in mid to late September. Her photos were gorgeous. Again this is all weather and solar activity dependent. And the weather is Iceland can be severe at any time of the year. I was told by a flight attendant on Iceland Air that September is the best time to see the northern lights based on weather, road conditions, etc.

I totally understand your desire to guarantee a light sighting, given the cost and time investment required to get to the destinations you list. There is simply no way to guarantee it. Weather/cloud cover are typical in winter and you have to go then to ensure dark skies. Solar conditions may not be favorable even if the sky is completely clear, and there is no way to predict more than a day or so ahead what the sun might do on any given day. Your idea to stay longer will increase your chances, but by how much is not predictable.

FWIW I went to Iceland in late October. I saw the lights on the flight from the US, from my hotel in downtown Reykjavik, and on a specific night time bus tour. This was a bucket list item for me, but it was mostly disappointing because they were extremely faint and not like the pictures you see on internet - which by the way are likely enhanced. Was it a cool experience? Yes, but the rest of my trip to Iceland was a much bigger highlight. I'd make sure your trip plans include other memorable activities, as enjoying the journey is important as well.

If all other activities come second to the lights, you really should go to Abisko. Of, there is never such a thing as a guarantee, but your odds of seeing the lights are far better there compared to Tromsø. Abisko is higher up in the mountains, in a rain shadow, meaning high chance of clear skies and dry air. Tromsø on the other hand is at sea level in a mild maritime climate, meaning a much higher risk of cloudy skies.

Also, you've posted this in the Beyond Europe-forum, which is probably not the best place.

I think you are making a fundamental mistake (several, actually). If your primary, nay, your exclusive  goal is to see the the aurora, stop focusing on Iceland, or Norway, or Sweden. Despite great marketing efforts to fool people into thinking there's something extra magical about these places for seeing the northern lights, there is nothing particularly unique about them. There may be (and there certainly are!) other good reasons to visit those places, but your chances of seeing the aurora there are exactly the same as seeing them in any other place on the globe of roughly the same northern latitudes. Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Russia all have plenty of places that are just as far north (even farther north, actually). Those places just haven't made the effort to monetize the aurora as effectively, as say, Iceland has. People seem to have been convinced that there's some magic oozing from the landscape in Iceland that attracts the aurora. Meanwhile, you pay $20 for a glass of beer, and i-don't-want-to-even-think-about-how-much for a nice hotel room there. In fact, while going to the far north certainly doesn't hurt, it's actually not critical -- there are other factors with a greater impact on your chances.

I've been around a bit, spent months in some cold, dark, northern places. Best auroral display I ever saw? Near Detroit, Michigan -- a city that has clearly failed to adequately fund their "northern lights tourism" marketing efforts.

Before spending an arm, and a leg, and other body parts, to book an aurora tour in Tromso or Oulu or Nuuk (or Detroit), please take a look at this old thread, and my posted reply which explains really what you do (and what you do not) need in order to see the northern lights:

Northern Lights

There are no "cheat codes." No "one crazy trick." Nothing that "has been banned from the internet!"

Mostly you need to be in the right place at the right time, and then, you need to be lucky. If you're lucky enough, you can get lucky almost anywhere. If you're not that lucky, you just need to be extremely patient (days, weeks, months, years, depending on your luck). You can do everything right, be in the ideal place, wait a long time, and still not get lucky. There are no guarantees. That's life.

Hope that helps. (And my apologies to the Icelandic Tourism Association).

David is correct. We have actually seen the northern lights in MA when we lived there. We just happened to be looking out the window at the right time.

I saw the Northern Lights several times in Northern Minnesota.

Thanks for all of the quick responses. I just wanted to clarify that I’m interested in other stuff too, but that the Aurora lights are sort of the theme of this particular trip. Some people might be perfectly content if they didn’t see the Aurora lights as long as they saw some other stuff (example like the Blue Lagoon). All of these extra activities in all of the aforementioned areas seem like a lot of fun, but they aren’t the main focus. Simply icing on the cake.

I also want to stress that even though the main goal is to see the lights, I won’t feel like I “wasted my time” if I couldn’t end up seeing them. Even in Sweden, I would be hiking and dog sledding when I’m not light hunting :)

Yeah between Tromsø and Abisko, I like my odds in Sweden more given their respective geographies, though I’m open to many more suggestions. That blows my mind that you can see the lights from Michigan and Minnesota hahaha.

From a cost perspective, it’s not ALL just for the lights. I have Scandinavian heritage (mostly Norwegian but bits of Danish and Swedish as well) so it’s a bit of a pilgrimage of sorts. I have a larger encompassing world trip and I thought it was a shame I didn’t have this region (Scandinavia and Arctic) on the list. I figured the Aurora lights and being in the arctic circle would be a wonderful addition to the globetrotting experience

If you're from the west coast of the U.S.A., I vote for Fairbanks, Alaska. I've seen the lights often in Sitka and Juneau, but my husband is from Fairbanks, and he's totally bored with the lights. Reasonable flight costs, plenty hotels and restaurants. Spend a night out at Chena Hot Springs on a clear night, go to UAF or drive up to Cleary Summit (20 miles outside of Fairbanks on a good road). Check out this UAF website: https://www.gi.alaska.edu/monitors/aurora-forecast
And if you're a girl who wants to meet a guy, keep this phase in mind: "The odds are good, but the goods are odd."

David has a point, but has simplified it a bit. Sure, being at a good latitude is a good start. But, your chances are not exactly the same as any other place at the same latitude. Also note that it's not the further north the better, The chances of the lights appearing are roughly the same at the same altitude, but if you are able to see them or not depends on many factors. A thick cloud cover and you won't see them at all. And local climate will impact the risk of clouds obstructing the views, so some places are better than others. Which is one reasons Abisko is a good place for seeing the lights. Also, light pollution is an issue.

And in the end how easy it is to get there. The interior of Greenland is an amazing place to watch the lights, but getting there is a hassle and frankly if you don't know what you're doing it can be very dangerous. On the other hand, northern Scandinavia on the same latitude is pretty well connected.