outer layer for now....

I get cold easily too. A down jacket, heavy fleece and lightweight waterproof jacket works for me in weather as low as 30 Fahrenheit and even the 20s. I wear a warm hat and gloves and long underwear under my regular pant, as well. If the weather is warmer, I drop a layer or replace the heavy fleece with a light fleece or synthetic jacket.

I’m not sure what the difference is between a puffy jacket and down jacket.

Yes, but wuold you wear all that if it were, say, an early morning or evening low of 50 Fahrenheit? I meant puffer jacket and yes, it's down but very light.

What you are proposing to take in your original post should be sufficient and it really depends on how long you are planning to be outside, how early in the morning you want to start, and how high you plan on going. And of course, if it is sunny or rainy. if all else fails frequent Cafe/Coffee/Sacherttort stops will help.

Oh dear, I just reread my original post and realize I made a mistake. I meant to write " lightweight rain jacket, fleece, and down VEST, also a warm base layer," rather than down jacket. So my question is, should I bring a puffer jacket in addition to all the rest? Nick pointed out all the variable factors, and that is precisely the problem, isn't it? The adage "better safe than sorrry" goes aagainst my obsession with packing economically.

I randomly looked at extended forecasts in/ near the Alps. It looks to me that the temps make a huge drop in November, but early October is pretty consistent. If you are going to S. Tyrol first, the range seems narrower to me.

I think what would be helpful is to think about what you are actually doing and when. Maybe also think about what temps you're adapted to at home. If you're from Miami or Kalispell makes a difference. What is normal fall/winter where you are?

How active are you going to be? Energetic hiking, or standing and walking around a town? A few minutes by a gondola or a few miles/km? For how long? From hotel to museum, or 2hr walking tour? What time of day do you expect to be most active? Any 2am crawls back from the pub, or up and out the door at 5am? Or are you more of a moderate day 9am-9pm adventurer? The less extreme your days and your plans the more moderate you can plan to be with your clothes. And I really wouldn't rule out the opportunity to get a wonderful sweater or scarf (gloves? ) when you're there.

This seems obvious, but I can see you're down in the weeds in the obsessive/worrying overthinking about all the tiny details packing stage. (It'll be my turn next weekend, lol) You probably should just step back and relax for a day. You still have some time to watch the weather forecasts become more realistic and fine tune your wardrobe. It sounds like you own everything you might need already.

How about exchanging the vest for the puffer jacket?

I find a heavier rain jacket can come in handy and is multipurpose. Something like from Wellensteyn or Quechua for example. One less layer and good rain protection and warm. Maybe a European purchase?

And to add... I have a nice Schöffel jacket that has a water proof outer shell with a zip in fleece shirt. No problem with freezing temps and can be a rain jacket or fleece shirt.

Wow, what interesting replies. Such a wide variety of tastes and "solutions." Lots to think about.
Many thanks.