I would spend the night in Vienna or pay to land in Budapest.
Here are the things I would consider.
If you plane is late you will miss your train. I would allow 2 hours from flight arrival to the first train from the airport. Even with the most flexible ticket I don’t think they will let you on another train if you just didn’t show up on time. Don’t know.
Honestly, I would take a taxi from the airport to the Vienna main station for the train to Budapest. Just one less thing for me to worry about.
If your luggage gets lost, I have no idea if the airline will deliver it to Budapest. Maybe, maybe not?
The combination of trains in question is Flughafen Wien › Budapest Keleti; with a change in Vienna Hbf. The cost on the OBB site is 64 euro with a seat reservation on the one day that I checked (10 October).
Booking from Vienna Hbf to Budapest is 55 euro on the same day using the OBB site.
I tried checking mid-October but the OBB site would not let me do that with the start at Flughafen Wien so if you go that way you might have to wait till a few weeks prior to buy your ticket. Maybe something to do with the airport train schedule. No idea.
RailJet keeps getting thrown around. Don’t worry if it’s a RailJet (RJX) or EuroCity (EC) pick on how long the ride is. There is probably a definition for “High Speed” train but there aren’t any high-speed trains in Hungary. 2:32 to 2:42 travel time isn’t bad given the distance.
And so far we have just talked about the OBB site. The MAV site sells the airport to Budapest ticket that I looked up on 10 October for 39 euro with a seat and the Vienna Hbf ticket on the same day for 28 euro with a seat.